The Play Of The Day

August 22, 2000
08:59 AM EST.

Good Morning Stock Fans!

NASDAQ RECAP: August 21, 2000,:
NASDAQ Volume: 1.2 billion (7th lowest of the year)
Last: 3953.15
High: 3985.62
Low: 3917.74
Open: 3966.23

NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY: August 22, 2000:

Stock Fans, the NASDAQ will look today for the FED to leave interest rates alone when it will release its decision at 2:00 PM est today. The fact that rates should not change may already be built in to the index at current levels. What would be the true catalyst for a rally to over 4000.00 again would be the FED taking a position to leave rates alone the rest of the year. 2 reasons back this action up well? First historically in an election year the FED is not known to increase interest rates after August. Two, the FED may not have to increase rates anymore in 2000 simply on the fact that it has engineered a soft landing and now regardless of election year and historical action doesn't need to increase rates as the job is done.

The historical data that has been released since last time the FED met. Has for the most part been very inclusive to leaving rates as they are till the end of at least 2000. This expected action could be exactly what the NASDAQ needs today to make a run back to magical 4000.00

The FED decision should induce 2 KEY things into the market today. A move back to 4000.00, and on BIG VOLUME. If the NASDAQ can do this then it would look to at least this trader that the NASDAQ may set up to test its current 30 day high of 4289.00.

In technical term the NASDAQ on its 60 min chart as its schocastics shows is currently oversold. This reading may be exactly what momentum traders use as their lead indicator to go in today ahead of the FED perhaps shortly after the first 60 mins of trading. I will look for a gap up today on the NASDAQ off open to 3970.00 or so. I then will look for 3985.00 yesterday's high to not be made. I then see a drop back to 3950.00 where the NASDAQ should fill in today's small NASDAQ gap up. At 3950.00 I will look to go in many of my favorite NASDAQ names and look for the NASDAQ to be trading over 4000.00 by the time the FED descion hits the airwaves. The current trendline states that the NASDAQ could run to as high as 4010.00 today. However I believe the NASDAQ could see 4054.00 its trading range on July 4, 2000. It looks like if 3950.00 and 3944.00 at worst case can hold today 4000.00 should come, and when the FED reiterates a soft landing has taken place at 2:00 PM EST I look for the NASDAQ to find 4050.00.

In SHORT ( no punn inteneded) The NASDAQ looks like an index to go LONG on Today!

NASDAQ 10 day high: 3985.62
NASDAQ 10 day low: 3789.98 (range = 195.64)

NASDAQ top today on a break out!: predicted 4050.00
NASDAQ bottom on BAD NEWS From FED: 3789.98

Today's "Play of The Day!" is: Tibico Software (NASDAQ:TIBX)

About TIBX:

Tibco Software, Inc. is a provider of eBusiness infrastructure software products that enable business-to-business, business-to-consumer and business-to-employee solutions. Tibco's software products enable businesses to link internal operations, business partners and customer channels in real-time. The Company's software products allow multiple distinct applications, Web sites, databases and other content sources to be integrated and managed within a common framework. The Company's products also enable enterprises to extend their information technology infrastructures and business processes across the Internet to conduct all forms of electronic business using the Internet.

SJ's Outlook TIBX:

TIBX, traded massive volume yesterday on what wasn't any kind of news to do so. TIBX news yesterday was one of its corporate leadership giving an e-Commerce Keynote address to a Korean conference. That type of news in no way caused TIBX to fall off the table yesterday almost as bad as a Randy Johnson curve ball! TIBX was crushed on volume of well over its 30 day average to as low as 82.00.

Today , I look for TIBX to open higher trade as high as 86.50 missing 87.00, I then will look for this stock to fall back under 84.00 and hold yesterday's low of 82.00 by about 1.25. I will look for a buy area on this one of 83.3750 and use yesterday's low as a sell stop (well close adding on .25 under yesterday's low as a sell stop.)

If it can't hold 82.00 then it has problems as 74.00 is massive support as TIBX held 74.00 from June 2- 13, 2000 as it traded in a massively tight range. TIBX off that 74.00 exploded to go over 120.00 plus then held 116.00 once it lost it fell back under 100.0 and as of yesterday 82.00 is the low. Many technical traders that play stocks on momentum simply of MA's have shorted TIBX since it lost 115.00 last week. If TIBX can hold 82.00 and make it over 88.00 they would almost certainly have to cover TIBX short and that could send this stock to 97.50 in next 3 days.

The set up on TIBX is detailed below:

Sell Short: 86.8750 limit short
Buy Stop: 88.6250
1 DAY TARGET: 84.00-83.50

Buy Area: 83.3750 limit buy
Sell Stop: 81.75
1- DAY TARGET: 86.50-87.00
2 -DAY TARGET: 92.50-93.25

IF TIBX Loses 81.75 TIBX loses support of 82.00 it then is a KEY SHORT until 77.50 where another BUY ORDER could be placed as 73.8750 should hold and have a big bounce on oversold associated with it.


LPTH, is in that space that has gone to just that SPACE outerspace! The Fibre Optics sector has exploded and LPTH has been a stock that has seemed to enjoy it in spurts. It has traded over last 60 days from 50.00 to 26.00. This range is certainly not one for the light hearted. However LPTH of late has added on volume that has caused it now to make 40.00 its support. The volume yesterday was way over 30 day average of 400k as it traded nearly 600k. love this stock off 42.00 today to hold 40.00 and over the next 3 days re test that 50.00!

LPTH is in a break out mode that should follow through!

Buy Area: 41.8750-42.50
Sell Stop: 39.50
1-3 DAY TARGET: 45.50-50.00


CYTO, news yesterday sent this one over 8.00 in after hours. The bullish report in the Philadelphia paper outlined it as having ties to the high flyer CRA. With that news CYTO exploded and went from 6.34 - to over 8.00 in after hours on 14 million shares.

The reason I pick this one as a BONUS PLAY today is because when this stock trades big volume it tends to run then pull back "shake out" and then make a move higher. This stock is more then capable of finding 10.00 as it went as high as 19.00 plus on Feb March of 2000. CYTO is a stock that could have FM's going into it today as it completes a shakeout back under 7.00 under 7.00 this one is a steal and one to hold for a 10.00 run that could easily be seen if FM's come in to this stock like I predict they will.

Buy Area: under 7.00
Sell Stop: 5.8750
1-3 DAY TARGET: 8.25
1-5 DAY TARGET: 10.50 + low risk!


Stock Fans! As I watched MSTR explode yesterday. I immediately looked at ISLD. Why? Well, recent history. When MSTR runs for some reason ,,, not really related at all ISLD follows. It happened in June it happened in July. It's August now so will ISLD follow this time? MSTR ran big on short covering and news yesterday!

ISLD set itself up well today to make a run as big volume held it in a tight range yesterday. Look already today ISLD is trading up nearly 2.00. I will get in ISLD today at open and look for it to BREAK OUT as it is currently oversold and a run up causes short covering and a great move to the upside. History is on the side to send ISLD back to 35.00 perhaps today!

Buy Area: off open
Sell Stop: 25.00
1-2 DAY TARGET: 29.50 -35.00 is possible !


BONUS PLAY #1 Jabil Circuit, Inc (NYSE: JBL)

Jabil Circuit, Inc. is a worldwide independent provider of electronic manufacturing services (EMS). The Company designs and manufactures
electronic circuit board assemblies and systems for major original equipment manufacturers in the communications, computer peripherals,
personal computer, automotive and consumer products industries. The Company offers complete turnkey EMS solutions that are responsive
to customers' outsourcing needs. Its work cell business units are capable of providing integrated design and engineering services,
component selection, sourcing and procurement, automated assembly, design and implementation of product testing, parallel global
production, systems assembly and direct order fulfillment services and repair and warranty services.

Stock Fans, Jabil Circuit has pulled back off of its recent high. I like buying this stock on a pullback. Jabil Circuit's has a growth rate of 50% and EPS rate of 97 and a Relative Strength of 95. Earnings and sales have consistently grown. The hourly chart is oversold, the overall trend is up. Buying my favorites before the Fed meeting today.

Key Indicators: JBL

Buy Area:$62.00 to $62.50
TARGET:$66.00 to $67.50
Time Frame: 3 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $2.39

BONUS PLAY # 2 Integrated Device Technology, Inc (NasdaqNM: IDTI)

IDTI designs, develops, manufactures and markets high-performance semiconductor products and modules for data communications and
telecommunications equipment, personal computers and shared network devices. For the 13 weeks ended 7/2/00, revenues increased 50%
to $231.3 million. Net income totaled $62.4 million, up from $8.5 million. Revenues reflect higher sales of SRAM and Communications
products. Earnings also reflect the absence of $4.8 million in merger expenses.

Stock Fans, ditto on above. IDT has great numbers, a PE of 46 and cash flow per share of $1.86. Earnings last quarter only increased 544% over the same period last year. I like the pullback and the overall trend is intact. We have played this many times in the room and looking to buy before the Fed meeting.

Key Indicators: IDTI

Buy Area:$69.00 to $69.50
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Day/ Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.75 - $1.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $5.61



Sycamore Networks, Inc. (NasdaqNM:SCMR)

Sycamore Networks, Inc. develops and markets intelligent optical networking products that transport voice and data traffic over wavelengths of light. The Company combines significant experience in data networking with expertise in optics to develop intelligent optical networking solutions for network service providers. Sycamore's products are based on a common software foundation, enabling concentration on the delivery of services and end-to-end optical networking. Sycamore's products and product plans include optical transport, access and switching systems and end-to-end optical network management solutions.

SCMR has earnings coming up August 24th after the bell. Yesterday, it looks as if many momentum players took profits as the issue hit RSI 70+ (usually triggering profit taking). This sector is still hot and many medium and longer term players still want in SCMR. A gift entry would be found at 137, but I don't see that as a likelihood. However, 142-148 looks likely. If SCMR were to by some chance lose 137, wait for clear direction before entering the play. 140 was the breakout spot for it some trading days ago, so 141, 142 may be a great entry spot for a 2 day spurt into earnings.

Sept 170 SCMR calls QSM IN last ask 8 5/8


1. EFNT- It bought that company on making itself better. In short term it was crushed 43.00 should hold today and I like 48.00 alot as a move up.
2. MRVC -Upgraded late yesterday 76.00 looks soon
3. CORV - Upgraded today as QP ends. It has 2 brokers talking it up! It looks good to test 102.00 soon
4. ZIGO - low volume but it could see 70.00 then retrace to 62.00
5. KEI - retrace looks to be coming under 55.00 this one is a steal over 62.00 it breaks out.
6. MCTR- more downside under 12.00 it might be worth a shot. Hogh risk!
7. HLIT- 32.00 was not in the cards yesterday. It could happen today 35.00 looks like upside momentum
8. EMLX - I like 87.00 to be tested today then a move to 97.00
9. NTAP - back under 90.00 if it loses 94.00 today.
10. NEWP - Split run in progress?
11. LWIN - it is making a big move
12. IFCI- over 20.00 again this one goes on watch today!
13. VRTA- test 60.50 make a move back later today on a bust out to 77.50
14. KANA- drop yesterday was on much less volume. It may bounce back over 40.00 today with ease.
15. BWAY- swing play continues. Looks fine as entire NASDAQ needs more volume!
16. LVLT- Came on yesterday 75.00 could be uptrend
17. JNIC- really came on 63.00. This is top if it can break 66.00 it could run. I like a pull back
18. ACCL- big volume 25.00 may happen
19. DSLN- up big already today.
19. TSYS- droped alot on low volume.
20. LEON- this bio tech IPO is up huge in pre market.
21. CMTN- hold 66.00 and may make 75.00-76.00 today
22. CLRN- Looks good at current levels. 44.00 support
23. SSTI- Looks ready to bust out over 30.00
24. STLW- Great stock worth holding
25. JDSU- 127.50 may happen. 130 on a bust out 123.6250 support
26. NVDA- came in ok on numbers actually 4 cents better.. The news was sold. I like 72.00 to hold on this one today. 82.00 was high in after hours yesterday.
27. MSTR- If it can hold 29.00 and clear 31.50 it could run wild to 38.00. Its a buy under 30.00 today for 3 plus in the range

Have a great day!

More to come.........

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