The Play Of The Day
Well Stock Fans! This is the Last Day The Play of The Day is FREE! So, I thought I would provide you with 5 stock plays today! What a GUY!
However Strating tomororw you will have to PAY to see tomorrows "Play Of The Day!" I will wait till then to give you my well thought out anylisis and stradegy for playing the market in August 1999. It has history on its side as well as technical indicators.
S&P FUTURES .20 up
Fair Value is: 3.00. That means a stronger opening today for stocks. as we are postive 3.20 on the S&P FUTURES so far today! Don't be fooled Stock Fans! we go further down today as the market will lack VOLUME and worries of rate hikes swirl through the US Stocks today
OK without further delay lets get right to all of today's plays!
Today's Play of The Day is: @HOME EXCITE (NASDAQ:ATHM) I will look to find the range DOWN to $39.00 and then back UP to just over $45.00. It could and should happen today (**Be sure to read down to the OPTIONS the calls and putts I like today)
@HOME When it goes under its 200 day moving average it must then go as low as it 60 day low was. History has proved this 5 times in the last 11 months. Today we look to make it 6!
Stock Fans! I have had excellent luck with (NASDAQ:ATHM) I called it low at $78.00 even on 6-15-99 after it had bounced no lower then that on 6-14-99. Consult the Play of The Day 6-15-99. Why do I mention this? No, I am not doing it to brag, as I WAS DEAD RIGHT but instead to point out that crucial 60 day low of $78.00 reached on 6-14-99 then again bottomed out there again on 6-15-99 before it went higher. Now since (NASDAQ:ATHM) has split since then 2 for 1. We have to now take 78.00 and divide it by 2 to get an actual number to do a comparison now. So, that number is $39.00 even exactly half of $78.00. (NASDAQ:ATHM) has only broken its 200 day moving average 5 times over the last 11 months. (NASDAQ:ATHM) broke its 200 day moving average on August 31st 1998, Dec. 24, 1998 June 15, June 16, and July 23rd. Stock Fans! I would say going back to 11 months gives a great indicator on (NASDAQ:ATHM) Going back almost 1 full year is far enough Aug 31st 1998. We find a lower area of support for (NASDAQ:ATHM) at $36.00.
The 200 day moving average on a stock is a extremely important technical indicator it is perhaps the most important to the technicians that buy and sell the stocks to us the investors. When a stock like (NASDAQ:ATHM) breaks it as it did on July 23, 1999 the outlook is seen as very BEARISH. The fact the (NASDAQ:ATHM) finished the month of July 1999 under it is even worse.
So, Stock Fans! what does this tell us? Is (NASDAQ:ATHM) going as low as $36.00 like it did ending August 1998? Not likely. However lets go back and look June 14 ,1999 to find more of a reason as to why I believe (NASDAQ:ATHM) goes no lower then $39.00?
Looking at June 14, 1999 what I see that really gives me a great indicator is HUGE VOLUME of 16,803,224 shares. @HOME EXCITE (NASDAQ:ATHM)also showed a LARGE TRADING RANGE of $90.25 to $78.00. That is a spread of $12.25. (nonsplit numbers are shown here, as this is before ATHM split 2 for 1 ) What that big spread of $12.25 tell me is that where (NASDAQ:ATHM) was as high as $90.25 it dropped all the way down to $78.00. I really like this action as FEAR played into investors minds that day that owned shares of (NASDAQ:ATHM) watched their investments churn to frightening levels! As I said on July 15 I will say it again "They felt anything @HOME and surly were unEXCITEd"!
What I then can conclude form this data is indeed that (NASDAQ:ATHM) low looks to be $39.00 no lower. However now the big question is when? Well, looking back at those 5 times that (NASDAQ:ATHM) broke its 200 day moving average it had to drop to a 60 day low to again rise up over it. (NASDAQ:ATHM) 200 day moving average is $49.00.
Guess what Stock Fans! we fall under that and we have not yet achieved that 60 day low. Well, we should look to do it today! I am looking for (NASDAQ:ATHM) to open today at about $46.93750 to $47.93750. We perhaps may see some strength right away after it opens and it may goto $47.9350. However that is the top. All the data I have compiled and history tell me we head to $39.00 even faster
KEY INDICATORS FOR (NASDAQ:ATHM) ON THE WAY DOWN TO $39.00
Buy Area: Look to short shares @ $46.93750 to $47.25
Sell Stop: get squeezed @ $48.1250 (cover here for a small loss)
Sell Area: $39.00 even (It looks to go no lower today)
PLAY THE OPTION PUTS ON THE WAY DOWN TO $39.00
OPTIONS PUTS OFF THE OPEN
(NASDAQ:ATHM) August 21, 1999 $40.00 Puts Options
(SYMBOL: AHQ-TG) last on ask Friday July 30, 1999 was $0.93750 per contract. 10 contracts would then cost $937.00 plus commision.
ATHM on THE WAY BACK UP FROM $39.00
Stock Fans! with so much in our favor at when (NASDAQ:ATHM) churns back down to $39.00. We will look to go LONG on shares of (NASDAQ:ATHM) and buy into the (NASDAQ:ATHM) Call Options. The August 21, 1999 $45.00 Call Options.
(SYMBOL:AHQ-HI) last on ask Friday July 30, 1999 was $3.3750 per contract. 5 contracts would then cost $1687.50 pus commsion.
The turn around go long on (NASDAQ:ATHM) LONG AGAIN and buy up (NASDAQ:ATHM) August 99 Calls the August 21, 1999 $50.00 calls as (NASDAQ:ATHM) in the past come off of that low 39.00 as recently as 6-15-99 and then went as high as $53.8750 on huge volume of over 21 million just 2 days later. I look for the same thing to happen this time. I can't go against history when it sticks out like this!
Stock Fans, with so much in our favor at when (NASDAQ:ATHM) churns back down to $39.00. We will look to go LONG on shares of (NASDAQ:ATHM) and buy into the (NASDAQ:ATHM) Call Options. The August 21, 1999 $45.00 Call Options.(SYMBOL:AHQ-HI) last on ask Friday July 30, 1999 was $3.3750 per contract. 5 contracts would then cost $1687.50 pus commsion
Then turn around go LONG on shares of (NASDAQ:ATHM) and buy up (NASDAQ:ATHM) August 99 Option Calls. The August 21, 1999 $45.00 calls as (NASDAQ:ATHM) in the past came off of that low of $39.00 as recently as 6-15-99 and then went as high as $53.8750 on huge volume of over 21 million just 2 days on 6-17-99. I look for the same thing to happen this time. I can't go against history when it sticks out like this!
KEY INDICATORS on ATHM on the way BACK UP from $39.00
Buy Area: $39.00
Sell Stop $38.93750
TARGET: $45- 46.93750 (perhaps today)
OPTIONS OFF OF LOW of $39.00
ATHM August 21, 1999 $45.00 Call Options
That will do it Stock Fans! as I look to "Double Dip" (NASDAQ:ATHM) and play what should be today's range down to $39.00 low to $45.93750 or higher when it is all over today.
Ok, Stock Fans! Here is what I see as very special BONUS today.
BONUS PLAY - AOL $95.00 is the 200 day moving average on AOL $5.50 UP form $95.00 equeals $105.50 AOL open on July 30, 1999. Now $95.00 MINUS 5.50 = WOW look at that $89.50. It looks to me like AOL again real soon perhaps today find its way back down to $89.50.
(NYSE:AOL) Let me explain this one to you as plain as I can AOL's critical 200 day moving average as Bob Pisani of CNBC pointed out a Friday July 30 at about 2:45 PM EST is a very critical number that technichains of the market really look at and follow closely. For AOL this number isd $95.00 even a share. Well Stock Fans I think that at $100..50 AOL high on July 30, 1999 is where AOL looks to me like it was sohted heavily. It then fell as low as $94.25 on Friday. It did bounce off thei level however not with an menaing behind it. I really like AOL to be shoted right off the open today becuase of how it leaped up form $95.00 to $95.1250 the NYSE AOL close at 4:00 PM EST this past Friday. Intersting that the BIG BOYS took shares of AOL up to $97.1250. That is over $2.00 a shre higher on way less VOLUME way less.
I look to play AOL just like this today
KEY INDICATORS FOR AOL ON THE WAY DOWN TO $89.50.
Buy Area: SHORT SHARES of AOL right off the open
Sell Stop: $100.75
TARGET: down to $89.50
OPTIONS CALLS ON THE WAY DOWN
AOL August 21 ,1999 Option Puts
(SYMBOL:AOE-TR) last $3.50 per contract.
AOL KEY INDICATORS ON THE WAY BACK UP TO $98.75
Buy Area: $89.6250 to $89.93750
Sell Stop: $85.43750
TARGET: $98.75 perhaps today!
AOL OPTIONS ON THE WAY BACK UP FROM $89.50
AOL Call Options August 21,1999 $100.00 Call Options.
(SYMBOL:AOO-HT) last ask on Friday July 30, 1999 was $3.8750 per contract.
I am looking for MIGHTY AOL to test its 60 day LOW of $89.50 reached on June 16, 1999 as it broke under its 200 day moving average on Friday July 30, 1999 when it went under $95.00 dollars a share to as low as $94.25.
Friday's IPO. DIGEX (NASDAQ:DIGX) allready repainted its range as on 4 million share it went down from an open of $23.50 to $20.00 even then on 5 million shares it trended way back up to $22.43750 Then on list last 7.90 million it had a range of $22.1250 to $22.8750 before it settled at $22.25 as a it first days closing price on 16.9 million shares trading
For an IPO to lose right off the open and go down by $3.50. Then to go all the way back up to almost $23.00 AMAZES ME! It tell me that SUPPLY VS DEMAND and less today then it was on Friday July 30, 1999. That tell me It goes up! Here is the way I will ook to play (NASDAQ:DIGX) today
Buy Area: $21.8750 to $22.3750
Sell Stop: $21.93750
TARGET :$24.00 to $25.00 today!
(NASDAQ:DIGX) I look for this one to open a tad higher maybe $22.43750 then I am looking for (NASDAQ:DIGX) to go up and top out at $24.93750
That does it for today!
Look for me in my LIVE TRADING ROOM
More to come...