The Play Of The Day

August 15 2000
08:59 AM EST.

Good Morning Stock Fans!

NASDAQ RECAP: August 14, 2000,:
Last: 3849.69 +60.22
High: 3850.27
Low: 3767.00
Open: 3804.00


Stock Fans, the NASDAQ did indeed hold 3750.00 yesterday as it made 3767.00 it low of the day. The fact that it held 3750.00 by 17.00 points was not all that bad. The volume was on the extreme low side as it was just over 1.3 million making the volume even less then a NASDAQ 4 hour trading day on July 4, 2000. However the index did in the midst of a hot day in NYC manage to have some stock that added on with increased volume. The fact that the index didn't sell off and drop back to under 3750.00 is indeed bullish. It would now seem that the index has solid support, at what I call a "Hidden Number" in the range. That number is 3795.57. This number was frequent yesterday as the NASDAQ played the game,,, "Do I want to hold under 3800.00 or go over it?" That number was touched upon both up and down more then 5 times yesterday as the NASDAQ when it was finally able to break it on try 5 went up and then broke it open 3804.00. The run into the close could have been shorting in a range from 3804 - 3850.00 a move of 46.00 points. It has been common of late for the index to be shorted about 50 points after it clears resistance on the day. The KEY NUMBER now is 3936.00 the NASDAQ 10 day high and also the NASDAQ's 200 day moving average. If it can bust it 4070.00 seems apparent.
It however is going need a solid CPI to do it coming on Wednesday of this week.

Today, I will paint support on the NASDAQ at 3795.00 as 3800.00 is lost if it is some may panic! I like that area to hold today as 3795.00 is indeed looking like support today. If they chose to short this index to over 3900.00 I won't complain and stay long till it loses 3770 today as I don't think 3767.00 will hold in a sell off and the index could then drop to 3723.00 where it has solid support. The predicted move I see today is 3936.00 as the NASDAQ actually in its 5 day range has 3849.00 as its low on 8/8/00 (4 trading days ago ) at 3849.00 then the range to 3936. So the range today could set up a lot like this:

8/8/00 - Low 3849.00 High 3936
8/14/00 Low 3767.00 High 3850.00 close 3849.00

3849.00 is the KEY SUPPORT number today. The index appears it will open under that, and then if it can break it I like 3936.00. The 8/8/00 range of 3849.00-3936.00 (= 87.00 points) is one if the NASDAQ could bust through could send this index off to the races. The absolute top I see today is 3936.00 with a predicted low of 3895.00 with a close in the middle of the 8/8/00 range at 3893.00. It quite amazing that 3893.00 is an area in June and July the NASDAQ consolidated at before it made the post July 4, 2000, run to 4000.00 and 4289.00 the NASDAQ's 200 day high:

Long Over 3795.00
Short Under 3770 to 3710.00

Today's Play of The Day is: Stratus Lightwave (NASDAQ:STLW)

STLW, is a tremendous stock indeed. It makes money its in the Fibre Optics space. It is predicted to triple its numbers in the next quarter, and it broke through 36.00 yesterday, and managed to hold it. Compare this stock to NUFO a stock that went public in May at 40.00 now trading over 100.00 a share. STLW is believe it or not better and in the same space. It came on yesterday on increased volume. It looks like this one is a GO right off the open for a fast predicted move to 43.00 where it belongs.

Buy Area: Off The Open ( 37.25 predicted open)
Sell Stop: 35.50
1 DAY TARGET: 43.00
Time Frame: today
Type of Trade: daytrade

STLW on a pullback: Its insane to short this stock, as it finally has momentum! I will however look to buy this winner back under 36.50 today as it had great intreday support right there. It looks solid to be a long term hold at 36.00 plus. It loses 36.00 then Its a short till 34.50. I hope it holds on! Its a great stock!

BONUS PLAY #1 Efficient Networks (NASDAQ:EFNT)

EFNT, a true high flyer has been upgraded in the past 40 days as it found 102.00 then downgraded, as it then found under 50.00. This stock any way you slice it is unique and appears to be one that either gets gobbled up or stays at the forefront of its space. It has created almost a double bottom at 46.62 (yesterday's low) and 48.12 it current 30 day and for that matter 60 day low. It is a stock that could bounce back to 55.00 fast off a bottom of just over 48.12. I think it holds 47.00 in any market and can over the next 5-7 days or sooner find 55.00 again for what would be a 5.00 point move. One that I would not be un happy with at all. Again I like this one it has low risk, and it is one I could drop a tad more on fear and then set up perfect there to hold through that fear and be in for what could be a solid bounce. Most importantly low risk is the KEY On this one.

Buy Area: 48.3750 limit buy
Sell Stop: 47.00
TARGET: 55.00
Time Frame: 3-5 days
Type of Trade: swing trade/ off the bottom of the 30 day range

BONUS PLAY: #3 EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ:DISH)

DISH, is currently at the bottom of its 5 day trading range. The stock looks good here to hold 35.00. It's current 30 day low is 35.62, with its 30 day high at over 45.00 a share this stock represents a good opportunity to bounce back. It looks very much like it is oversold at current level. This one is a favorite of daytraders, and I include it today as it dropped back yesterday in a NASDAQ rally on less volume. It again has low risk of 3.00 tops to the bottom and could run over 12.00 back up. I like 42.50-43.00 on this stock as it has a habit of finding that range after falling back to its current level of 38.00 or so.

Buy Area: 36.50-36.1250
Sell Stop: 35.00
1-5 DAY TARGET: 42.50-43.00
Type of Trade: Swing Trade


BONUS PLAY #1 AES Corporation (NYSE: AES)

The AES Corporation and its subsidiaries and affiliates are a global power engaged in electricity generation. AES' electricity generation business consists of sales to wholesale customers (generally electric utilities, regional electric companies or wholesale commodity markets known as power pools) for further resale to end users. AES also sells electricity directly to end users such as commercial, industrial, governmental and residential customers through its distribution business. In its generation business, AES operates and owns (entirely or in part) a diverse portfolio of electric power plants with a total capacity of 36,675 megawatts (MW). AES also is currently in the process of adding approximately 6,646 MW to its operating portfolio through its construction of new plants.

Stock Fans, if you have listened to the news we are having a big problem supplying the West Coast with electricity. This company is in the same sector as Calpine Corp that we played yesterday. These charts are in breakout mode. AES Corp. makes the best of the best list for the NYSE. Growth, earnings growth, and sales growth is what it is about. AES has a PE of 52 and cash flow per share of $1.23. I am buying in increments, with a 1/3 position near the open.

Buy Area:$58.25 to $59.00
Time Frame: 1 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $1.99

BONUS PLAY # 2 Nextel Communications Inc (NasdaqNM: NXTL)

Nextel Communications Inc. provides digital and analog wireless communications services throughout the United States. Nextel offers a differentiated, integrated package of digital wireless communications services under the Nextel brand name, primarily to business users. Nextel's digital network (Digital Mobile Network) constitutes one of the largest integrated wireless communications systems utilizing a single transmission technology in the United States. Nextel has significant specialized mobile radio spectrum holdings in and around every major business and population center in the country, including all of the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. The Company provided service to about 2,789,900 digital subscriber units in the United States in 1998. Nextel, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates or has interests in wireless communications systems in and around various major metropolitan market areas in Latin America, Asia and Canada.
RESTON, Va., Aug. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- Nextel Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: NXTL - news) today announced the introduction of the i550plus(TM) Internet- capable phone, manufactured by Motorola. The i550plus phone is available in all Nextel markets

Stock Fans, an analyst said last week that Nextel is a prime takeover candidate. Sales have consistently grown but they are yet to be profitable. This is more of a chart play as the initial news release of the takeover possibilities has quieted. Nextel has news today and I am looking for a scalp play. I will buy close to the open if we get a gap down.

Buy Area:$54.00 to $54.75
TARGET:$57.50 to $59.00
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.75 - $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $4.18



Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HWP)

Hewlett-Packard Company is a global provider of computing and imaging solutions and services for business and the home. HP's major businesses include Imaging and Printing Systems, Computing Systems and Information Technology Services (IT Services). Imaging and Printing Systems provides laser and inkjet printers, copiers, scanners, all-in-one devices, personal color copiers and faxes, digital senders, wide- and large-format printers, print servers, network-management software, networking solutions, digital photography products, imaging and printing supplies, imaging and software solutions, and related professional and consulting services. Computing Systems provides computing systems for the enterprise, commercial and consumer markets. IT Services provides consulting, education, design and installation services, ongoing support and maintenance, proactive services like mission-critical support, outsourcing and utility computing capabilities.

HWP has earnings coming on the 16th. I will buy this one on the open (if HWP gaps UP at open wait for a good entry point) and plan to sell it at 3:30 EST today. Earnings usually will bring selling no matter what the news it seems as of late so I look for HWP to challange resistance at 117 then perhaps try for 119.50 ahead of earnings. Take what the market gives you and let's see if we can take some out of the middle!

HWP August 115 Calls HWP HC - look for entry 2.5 - 3 (expires this friday)


Stock Fans, yesterday's POD has good news and bad news. The good news is it went from 88.1250 holding my sell stop, and then making it to a day high of 93.18750. The bad news is it missed it target then reported earnings that looked to be blow out coming in over the Whisper Number at 9 cents but then said revs were sacrifed on a charge. That news took the stock back under 88.00 to 86.3750 where it held on 2.1 million shares in after hours. For me still in the stock. I hold here as again good news is support is here. Bad news will it find 93.00 again today and 100.00's anytime soon? Proably not. So i will look for 90.50 today and then bail on this one off 88.50 where I got in,,,, 90.50 is still not a bad gain.

SELL STOP CHANGED: FIRM: 85.00 under that short it to 81.00 as it has a gap to fill!


1. JDSU- 125.00 could be next stop 118.00 support.
2. NEWP- not all that volume was daytrade dolts thinking BRCD bought it out. Its solid I still like 131.00 soon.
3. RHAT-trading up 25.00 looks good
4. CORL- not touching been asked so I put that comment here.
5. BUYX- lowest risk on the board. PW likes it . Here its about at bottom or bankrupt. One thing its shorted and could rocket on covering.
6. LPTH- love it off 35.00 for 42.00 move.
7. WEBT- Next stop good be 40.00 plus this one I predict sees 100 this year!
8. ADBE- broke 120.00 on close looks solid.
9. SSTI-If it can hold 21.75 it looks solid for a 23.00 move
10. FNSR- 35.00 could be next.
11. LNUX- Watch for 50.00 outbourst.
12. NAVI- over 50.00 the chart could go sky high.
13. AINN- looks great for 20.00 plus.
14. EBAY- great place to go in
15. LWIN- Watch for support here.
16. NTRO- dead yesterday watch today solid.
17. AMAT -Short over 76.00 for 72.50 retrace.
18. RMBS- Top of range. High Risk to add on.
19. MRVC- if it can clear 66- 72.00 looks to be next.
20. EMLX- It looks topped out however they may short it to 76.00.


Have a great day!

More to come.........

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