The Play Of The Day

07:02 EST 08-10-99

Good Morning Stock Fans!

The S&P Futures are down today 6.50 as we continue to plot through what has started out as a "uneventful" August 1999. The earnings that most companies reported last quarter were for the most part in line with First Call estimates or better then expected. How quickly however do investors forget as in the midst of rising interest rates they still continue to sell off many stocks.

However, there comes a time when a given stock looks to be a great value with little downside risk as many stocks bounce off proven support levels. This type of action shows that no matter what the "Market Mood" might be in general many stocks have a price where investors sort of almost say to themselves the current risk is less then the immediate futures reward.

I believe that I have found stock that indeed looks to me that considering making a buying decision at current price levels does indeed have little downside risk (based on tested support levels) and the reward does out weigh the overall risk so much that passing up a buying opportunity is just to hard to do regardless the overall current "Market Mood" witch of course of late has been down.

Today's Play of the Day is: Concord Communications (NASDAQ:CCRD)

Here is yet another stock that has been hammered down from over $55.00 dollars as recently as July 14, 1999, to go as low as $32.56250 last Friday, August 6, 1999. that is over a 40% drop in less then 20 trading days. So what made (NASDAQ:CCRD) go that low? Nothing I could find, other then just the entire NASDAQ falling on average as a whole during that time on rising interest rates worries. So Is this stock looking as if it has been oversold leaving us with a good buying opportunity today?

Before we try and answer that question lets take a look at how (NASDAQ:CCRD) has traded over the past few days. Looking back to this past Friday, August 6, 1999, we see that (NASDAQ:CCRD) traded over 1 million shares more then 2.5 times its average 30 day volume. That larger then normal volume on Friday on August 6 , 1999, saw (NASDAQ:CCRD) trade as high as $35.50 to as low as $32.56250 per share before it closed right about where it started Friday, August 6, 1999, to close at $35.00 dollars even.

At the time that 2.5 times average volume was unexplained. However yesterday Monday, August 9 , 1999, (NASDAQ:CCRD) had positive news that would explain the major increase in volume it saw on Friday, August 9, 1999. What it did not explain was the fact that if yeterday's August 9, 1999, news was positive then why 1 trading day ahead of the news on Friday, August 6, 1999, did it miss it 200 day average by only $0.1250?

Yesterday on August 9 , 1999, saw (NASDAQ:CCRD) open at $37.06250 It then would go LOWER almost immediately on lower volume to as low as $35.25 Then more volume took (NASDAQ:CCRD) up off it low of the day of $35.50 to go as high as 38.6250 up over $3.50 dollars a share at one point. The volume would stay extremely low as compared to Friday, August 6, 1999, at only 314,000 shares trading all day yesterday.

What does all this mean? It would seem to me that (NASDAQ:CCRD) looks to be under accumulation. What I am looking for today is (NASDAQ:CCRD) to test its 200 day moving average it achieved on Friday, August 6, 1999, when it came only $.1250 from it 200 day moving average of $32.50.

Stock Fans! I look for the pullback to come right after the open today as (NASDAQ:CCRD) should pull back to about $33.25 -- $32.56250. Then I look for shares of (NASDAQ:CCRD) to go higher in the coming days.

Swing Trade


Buy Area: $33.25- 32.56250 (It may be up on open. However I look for it to drop into my buy area. If not today then soon.)
Sell Stop: $32.25 (Strong Support exists at $32.50. However I set it $0.25
lower to keep from getting stopped out.
TARGET: $44.8750 (3- 10 days)


I am looking for Investment Capital Group to SELL down off of current price levels just like Wit Capital (NASDAQ:WITC) did from its IPO debut on June 6, 1999 at $15.50 to June 15, 1999, where it hit it low of $9.00.

I am looking for Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ:ICGE) to go as low as perhaps $12.00 a share. However here I will look for an uptick opputunity and SHORT shares of (NASDAQ:ICGE) down to $18.00. I will look to short shares of (NASDAQ:ICGE) at about $25.93750 that looks to be its high today.

Swing Trade


Short Area: $25.93750 - or higher
Cover Loss $30.1250
Target: $18.00 (Cover Area- 7- 10 days

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