The Play Of The Day
August 10, 2000
08:57 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Last: 3853.50 +4.95 (+0.13%)
200 Day MA: 3904.00
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY: By SJ
Stock Fans, The NASDAQ broke 3904.00 its 200 day moving average early in the day. However it was very disturbing not to hold 3904.00 as the index went as high yesterday as 3936.00. The only good thing about yesterday was the NASDAQ filled in its gap up from 3848.00 - 3915 (= 33 points) before the day ended and now looks to have support at 3848.00. The 2 hidden key numbers might however now be 3938.00 this level held yesterday and if NASDAQ loses 3848.00 today 3838.00 is more important. It loses that figure I short many NASDAQ stock till 3767.00 is seen. On the other hand if it breaks 3895.00 today then it could see 3936.00 and if it gets by that 3982.00 could come.
Dell will report today following the close. It already was downgraded. If it comes in over number and revs are solid like DELL surprised last time the NASDAQ could trade a lot different in after hours today. DELL is indeed key then the PPI is released in the AM tomorrow. If the index can hold 3838.00 today as I think it will it could be setting up to break into 4000.00 area. The index needs CSCO to hold 66.00 and make 70.00 to renew its confidence. It a do or die day as DELL could save the NASDAQ and then it awaits the PPI in the AM.
NASDAQ KEY INDICATORS TODAY:
Resistance= 3936.00 (Yesterday's and 10 day high)
Support = 3848.00 (double bottom, consecutive days- 8/08/00 high,8/09/00 low )
200 day high: 4289.00
10 day high: 3936.00
10 day low: 3521.00
30 day high: 4289.00
30 day low: 3521.00 (4289-3521 range = 768.00)
200 day low: 3042.00
Today's Play of The Day is: Vignette Corp. (NASDAQ:VIGN)
Vignette Corporation is a global provider of e-Business application software products and services. The Company's e-Business solutions allow both traditional brick-and-mortar and startup dot-com businesses to create and manage Internet business channels that are designed to attract, engage and retain their customers, partners and suppliers online. The Company complements its products with a professional services organization that offers a range of services including strategic planning, project management and implementation. In July of 2000, the Company completed the acquisition of OnDisplay, Inc., a leading provider of B2B infrastructure software applications.
SJ's Outlook: VIGN
VIGN, came off a bottom last week on huge volume, after it had acquired On Display. It ran all the way to 50.00. Then dropped back and the beginning of the drop began on increased volume. However yesterday the stock fell back on less volume showing it may very well be bottomed out. It also has created almost a triple bottom just under 36.00 at 35.93750, and 35.8750. It should make that area as its support. Its trading up slightly in pre market as it adds on about 1.50 at present. I like it to 36.00 area hold and then make its way back up. It looks solid here to move back into the mid 40's as it may have rose to much on momentum traders, but now on the same basis perhaps dropped to much. It looks to have a very good chance to find a happy medium in the mid 40's. If that is the case this stock could be good for a 8-9 point move over next 5-7 days
BREAKING NEWS ON: VIGN SUNW: 8/10/00
VIGN, SUNW Join forces to deliver e-Commerce.
That could mean VIGN is a buy off the open. I will play it like this today.
KEY INDICATORS: VIGN
Buy Area #1: off open 33% intended total position. ADD more at 40.00 break out!
Buy Area#2: 36.50-36.75 ( 66% of intended total position
Sell Stop: 35.50
1 DAY TARGET: 42.50-43.00
2-5 DAY TARGET: 44.50-46.00
Type of Trade: daytrade/ swing trade
BONUS PLAY #1 Echelon Corp. (NASDAQ:ELON)
Echelon Corporation develops, markets and supports a family of hardware and software products and services that enables original equipment manufacturers and systems integrators to design and implement open, interoperable, distributed control networks. A control network enables any group of electrical devices, called nodes, to be linked together to implement sensing, monitoring, control and communications capabilities for a variety of applications. Control networks, an alternative to the traditional approach of centralized control, offer decreased costs of installation and maintenance and the ability to implement multi-vendor systems, thereby increasing competition while providing expanded features, flexibility and functionality
SJ's Outlook: ELON
ELON, came on late yesterday, and even though it was in a down market managed to on no news that I could find hold on to a solid one day gain. The stock traded at 55.00 less then 30 days ago, and looks to have bottomed. Its chart action had it breaking through an open gap down in its trading range. It could now fill in that gap down back up and make a move back to 47.50- 48.00. This play looks to have solid support and if it can add on more volume today make a nice 3-4 point gainer in a 2-10 day swing trade situation
KEY INDICATORS: ELON
Buy Area: 39.50-39.6250
Sell Stop: 36.00
3-10 DAY TARGET: 47.50-48.00
Time Frame: 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
VOLUME lower not for the inpatient investor.
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY #1 Commerce One, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CMRC)
Commerce One, Inc. is a provider of global e-commerce solutions for business. Its solutions are designed to create a network of interoperable marketplaces, trading communities and commerce portals called the Global Trading Web. The Company has developed the Commerce One Solution to automate the procurement cycle between multiple buyers and suppliers. The Commerce One Solution is comprised of enterprise e-procurement applications consisting of BuySite Enterprise Edition and BuySite Portal Edition, and the MarketSite Portal Solution. Within the MarketSite Portal Solution, business services such as auction services and enhanced content services are offered, with others to be added in the future. In July 2000, the Company formed Commerce One Ventures to accelerate global participation in e-business through strategic investments
Stock Fans, I like the stock at this price, but going to daytrade it for now. The hourly and weekly charts are oversold. The weekly is building a nice base at this level to explode out when the Naz gets up and goes. Commerce sales growth has for each of the last four quarters grown by 999% or better. They are not profitable as of yet. They have a strong RS of 98 and are being accumulated at this level. Playing the hourly chart!
KEY INDICATORS: CMRC
Buy Area:$47.00 to $47.50
Time Frame: 1 to 2 days
Type of Trade: Day/Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $4.70
BONUS PLAY # 2 Elantec Semiconductor, Inc (NasdaqNM: ELNT)
Elantec Semiconductor, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets high performance analog integrated circuits primarily for the video, optical storage, integrated DC:DC, and xDSL markets. The Company offers approximately 150 products such as amplifiers, drivers, faders, transceivers and multiplexers, most of which are available in multiple packaging configurations. The Company targets high growth commercial markets in which advances in digital technology are driving increasing demand for high speed, high precision and low power consumption analog circuits. Electronic system manufacturers in these markets typically have requirements for analog circuits with particular precision, linearity, speed, power and signal amplification capabilities. The Company addresses these requirements with standard products that serve several markets.
Stock Fans, this is a great company with great earnings. But every runner needs a rest every now and then. This one needs a time out! I will not short at the open. The hourly is oversold and the daily looks like it has life left in the run. So I plan to cover in the low $70's and go long.
KEY INDICATORS: ELNT
Short Area:$75.00 to $75.50
TARGET:$70.00 to $71.00
Time Frame: 1 to 2 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.75 - $1.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $6.65
PRO OPTIONS TRADER MATEO'S OPTION PLAY:
Siebel Systems, Inc. (NasdaqNM:SEBL)
Siebel Systems, Inc. is a provider of eBusiness applications. Siebel eBusiness Applications enable organizations to sell to, market to, and service their customers across multiple channels, including the Web, call centers, resellers, retail, and dealer networks. They are available in industry-specific versions designed for the pharmaceutical, healthcare, consumer goods, telecommunications, insurance, energy, apparel and footwear, automotive, technology, public sector, and finance markets. Siebel eBusiness Applications enable organizations to create a single source of customer information that sales, service, and marketing professionals can use to tailor product and service offerings to meet each of their customer's unique needs. By using Siebel eBusiness Applications, organizations can develop new customer relationships, profitably serve existing customers, and integrate their systems with those of their partners, suppliers, and customers, regardless of location.
SEBL is a fantastic company and is a great stock. But at this point, from a technical standpoint, SEBL looks due for a pullback. I think the Naz will get small pop on the open and may even trade range bound for a part of the day. 3850 is important technically and psychologically for traders. I would like to see SEBL at 168 - 169 for a short entry or to buy puts at this level. I am looking for SEBL to retrace back to 153. If it breaks that, it could test it's 30 day low of 132, but I would take a 17 point profit it that presents itself. Cover this put play if Naz closes above 3936 today.
SEBL August 155 PUTS SGW TK - look for a buy at 2.5
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. HSAC- breaking out on short covering.
2. NZRO- watch close today.
3. XICO- came back and saw 8.00 my have created a base. upside is huge of 20's high in March 2000. downside limited at 7.00. close 8.25
4. NTRX- came back its a slow process but looks fine
5. AMAT- Looks like they are selling its great news.
6. CAMP- broke out yesterday. If it can hold 33.00 it could see 38-39.
7. CSCO- What happened? It should find 70.00 before it loses 66.00
8. IMNX- buying oppurtunity
9. NTRO- It held up well yesterday.
10. LLY- It was crushed. Can it get 80.00 looks like it was overdone on the news.
11. JDSU- 118.8750 is support. Short at 124.00. Go long under 120.00 for mid day range 2.50 on it tighter range as volume slows down/
12. LPTH- It should hold well at 34.00.
13. LHSP- hammered look for bounce back.
14. VS- killed I will look for 3 bounce back.
15. KEYN cam on big volume for it 40.00 looks to be Resis. I will buy off open and look for 40.00
16. MACR- 84.00 support dropped there on less volume. Looks good.
17. DISH - Under 40.00 a buy sell stop 38.00
18. EMLX- retrace to under 60.00 a buy there for 64.00 bounce. It could fill gap soon.
19. LWIN- held up I would like to see more volume. However solid here.
20. EFNT- at 55.00 its a buy.
21. PRSF- Watch for bounce back
22. CPST- up in a down market watch close.
23. MRVC- buy under 61.00, hold 58.00.
24. LDP- held well. one to watch.
25. BLUE- 66.00 buy
27. MCDT- 82.8750 support. 88.00 break out to 95.00. Could see 100.00 today
28. CORV- 91.00 support a buy there as 121.00 is 3 day top 91.00 3 day bottom.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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