The Play Of The Day
August 1, 2000
08: 58 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ RECAP: July 31, 2000
Close: 3766.99 +103.99 (+2.84%)
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY: August 1, 2000
Stock Fans, the futures are down 11.00. It looks as if yesterday's rally of 100.00 points might have been more short selling and pushing price up to go lower on more selling into weakness-- than the perceived window dressing. If it were window dressing in full for Fund Mangers at the end of the month, then it would seem the NASDAQ has bottomed. It, however, went to a new 30 day and 60 day low yesterday as it went as low at 3615.00 and barely held 3600.00. The NASDAQ--as a pro would play it today--has lost its 200 day, as well as 50 day support and now would be an index that most would short until it finds a renewed pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Yesterday's ranges of 3615 -3767.00 ( over 150.00 points) was just too big of a move on lower volume. It would seem that 3800.00 stays out of reach and a test of perhaps 3581.00 now comes into play. The NASDAQ seems to have little news to take it higher currently, and also should set up on lower volume in a tighter range.
I look for the index to miss 3800.00 today and drop back to perhaps as low as 3686.00 as it loses 3700.00. I like it to hold yesterday's low by about 50.00 at its worst levels as it should hopefully today find a range that is tighter. I will watch the lows and highs and until the trend changes playing the tape as stocks could go up quick on short selling and as the price is driven higher on shorts. It also could drop even faster as the short selling stops, and no buyers or a low percentage of buyers exists sending the index lower quickly. Momentum traders should play a big part today as the index could find a low under 3675.00 today, and then go back up into 12:00 -1:00 PM EST and then fall back. The true test will be can the NASDAQ hold yesterday's low of 3615.00?
NASDAQ KEY INDICATORS TODAY:
7-17-00 =120 day high: 4289.00
5-24-00= 120 day low: 3042.00 (range = 1247.00)
7-23-00= 5 day high: 4163.00
7-27-00= 5 day low: 3842.00 (range = 321.00)
7-25-00= 4 day high: 4002.00
7-31-00 = 4 day low: 3615.79
7-28-00= 3 day high: 3867.80
7-31-00= 3 day low: 3615.79 = (range = 252.00)
Today's Play of The Day is: Advanced FIbre Communications (NASDAQ:AFCI)
I have played this Fibre Optics play before. The reason I like it so much is that according to its recent trading graph, and for that matter its last 90 days of trading, it has low risk as well as the opportunity of explosive gains. AFCI traded yesterday as low as 42.12 in a NASDAQ 100.00 plus rally. It traded one day earlier as low as 41.00, where it had created a double bottom created in its range (double bottom - 2 lows held in different days which equals strong support). The two indicators today are its 90 day low which came on 5-24-00 at 39.00 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3042.00 as a low. Yesterday, the NASDAQ traded some 500.00 points higher off its 5-24-00 low and AFCI only traded 3 higher off that low. AFCI has been as high as 55.00 plus in the last 10 days. It can really move fast on the upside as there are some very influential brokers that called this stock a steal 4 weeks ago at 46.00! Well, its 42.00 and under now. If it breaks 41.00 that double bottom in NASDAQ continued weakness, then I will buy more under 41.00 as this stock should hold 40.00, and if it loses 40.00 it shouldn't be for very long! AFCI looks like its just too good to not come back and with 20% pop to the upside in line off a bottom.
KEY INDICATORS: AFCI
Buy Area #1: 42.00- 42.3750
Buy Area #2: 41.50
Add on Weakness: 40.00
Sell Stop: 38.50
1-3 DAY TARGET: 42.93750-44.00
1-4 DAY TARGET: 45.50-46.00
1-7 DAY TARGET: 48.00-52.50
Type of Trade: Daytrade/ Swing Trade
AFCI "Inside The Numbers!"
30 Day low = 41.00 (double bottom)
90 Day low = 39.00 (5-24-00) NASDAQ = 3042.00
"RUN THE OPTIONS!": AFCI CALLS
The August 2000 45.00 Option Calls look good here.
Last Ask =
BONUS PLAY #1 Commerce One (NASDAQ:CMRC)
CMRC, has managed to hold its 30 day and 90 day low of 38.93750. It looks great today and if it does lose 40.00 it should see some mass selling and then stop like it did about 30 days and 90 days ago to hold 38.00. This stock is just too good not to pick up under 40.00 today as a #2 buy area and over 42.00 today as a #1 buy area. It has been north of 70.00 less than 14 days ago. It reported good numbers and is a popular stock. Volume yesterday in a NASDAQ rally was low for CMRC as it and the rest of the B2B E commerce plays lost value and popularity. I look for some brokers to get in this stock today and then upgrade it. I will try and beat them to the party and out play them in the CMRC game! I would love to buy CMRC on fear and then hold through that fear for a bounce and nice reward!
KEY INDICATORS: CMRC
Buy Area #1: 42.1250-42.25
Buy Area #2: 40.1250
Sell Stop: 38.00
1-2 DAY TARGET: 44.00-44.93750
1-3 DAY TARGET: 45.00-46.00
30 DAY TARGET: 55.00
Type of Trade: daytrade/ swing trade
CMRC "Inside The Numbers!"
30 Day Low = 38.37
90 Day Low = 38.37
RUN THE OPTIONS: CMRC
The August 2000 45.00 and 50.00 calls look good
RECAP: & UPDATE YESTERDAY'S Play of The Day Aware (NASDAQ:AWRE)
Yesterday, AWRE was hit hard again as it once again traded low volume.
With the numbers it turned in last week, and considering how much it has given away over the last 5 days it would appear that most, if not all of its sellers have left the stock. It looks very much like the dip yesterday under 40.00 shocked more than just a few investors as it lost more than 4.00 at one point and in a 100.00 plus NASDAQ rally it fell under 40.00.
I still like this play an awful lot and it would appear to me that even
though yesterday it came up as a loss, it looks to bounce up very soon--perhaps as soon as today. Its a quality play and I really have to lean towards the side that AWRE has sold off as it was trading over 60.00 at 61.43 on 7/17/00 and yesterday fell back to a low of 39.47
- 21.96 or (- 38%). I think the worst case scenario for this stock is to lose 40% off that 7/17/00 high and hold 36.75 as it should bounce back nicely.
KEY INDICATORS: AWRE (updated)
Buy Area #1: 39.50
Buy Area #2: 37.25 (add 50% to postion)
Sell Stop: 36.6250
1-3 DAY TARGET: 39.8750-40.00
2-5 DAY TARGET: 42.50-43.93750 +
STOCK TO WATCH: BMY
(NYSE:BMY) Keep close eye on it 55.00 which is break out point 48.00 support volume is doing some strange things of late as it trades a tight range.
"IN THE PALM OF MY HAND!" (NASDAQ:PALM)
NASDAQ:PALM) goes in S&P tomorrow ahead of the close. I will sell this
one today off the open. I expect some strange quirks with this one as it could fall back to 35.93750 and then rocket under 38.00 I go back in and add at 37.50 and 37.00. PALM has to be bought en mass into close tomorrow so I will play their game and make sure I get it on weakness today.
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY #1 Copper Mountain Networks, Inc (NasdaqNM: CMTN)
Copper Mountain Networks, Inc. develops and markets a comprehensive family of DSL solutions that enable high-speed internetworking over existing copper facilities. The Company's mission is to enable carriers and other service providers to offer a full range of high-performance,
cost-effective data and voice services over DSL that are easy to deploy, use, and manage. Copper Mountain's CopperRocket CPE family addresses the bandwidth, reliability, ease-of-use, and cost concerns of remote offices and users. Its carrier-class CopperEdge DSL concentrators and CopperView network management solutions offer a scalable platform for carriers and multi-tenant unit service providers to generate a high return on investment while satisfying the increasing user demand for bandwidth. Copper Mountain markets its products directly to telecom service providers and, to a lesser extent, through strategic original equipment manufacturers and distributors.
Copper Mountain Chosen by Leading ICP VPNCOM.NET as Strategic Vendor for $15 Million In-Building DSL Equipment Rollout.
Stock Fans, Copper Mountain is one of those plays that you have seen before. I like Copper Mountain's growing earnings and sales. Earnings for the last 4 quarters, with the most recent first, +380%, +999%, +225% and +283%. Cash flow is $.38 per share and has 3% debt. I am looking for an oversold bounce on the daily chart timing indicators.
KEY INDICATORS: CMTN
Buy Area: $77.25 to $78.00
Time Frame: 1 to 3 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.75 - $ 1.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $7.23
BONUS PLAY # 2 Cyber-Care Inc (NasdaqNM: CYBR)
Cyber-Care Inc. owns and develops an Internet-based solution aninteractive system, The Electronic HouseCall System (EHC System), that
provides products and services to support remote delivery of care, patient monitoring and education to the United States and worldwide healthcare markets. The Company also have been in the business of developing, owning and operating integrated medical delivery services through its diversified medical technologies, physical, occupational and speech therapy, sleep apnea, diagnostic and other healthcare services, institutional and e-commerce pharmacy services and international air ambulance transport services.For the three months ended 3/31/00, revenues rose 47% to $11 million. Net loss from continuing operations totaled $2.8 million vs. income of $760. Results reflect higher rates, offset by a higher beneficial conversion interest charge and a higher interest expense
Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration Receives HCFA Approval for CYBeR-CARE's Electronic Housecall System
Stock Fans, I first learned of Cyber-Care vacationing in Florida and have been watching its chart since. It has a great product that has been approved by the FDA. Many deals are on the burner and am expecting good information to come out of the shareholder meeting this weekend. Cyber-Care has a Relative Strength of 97. Its sales are growing nicely, but is not yet profitable. Cyber-Care has established a nice 2 month base and is 82.5% off of its 52 wk high. Daily Stochastics have turned due north on increasing volume. Looking to get a slice out of the middle here, but also believe this has longer term potential.
KEY INDICATORS: CYBR
Buy Area: $6.75 to $6.85
Time Frame: 2 to 6 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.10 - $.15 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $.58
PRO OPTIONS TRADER MATEO'S OPTION PLAY:
Protein Design Labs, Inc. (NasdaqNM:PDLI)
Protein Design Labs Inc. is a leader in the development of humanized monoclonal antibodies for the prevention and treatment of disease. The Company has licensed rights to its first humanized antibody product, Zenapax (daclizumab) to Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. and its affiliates, which markets it in the U.S., Europe and other countries for the prevention of kidney transplant rejection. The Company has announced seven other humanized antibodies in clinical development for autoimmune and inflammatory conditions, transplantation and cancer. These are SMARTTM M195, SMART Anti-CD3, SMART Anti-L-Selectin (3), SMART 1D10, SMART Anti-E/P-Selectin, Humanized Anti-IL-4 (4), SMART Anti-Gamma Interferon.
Even in a triple digit Nasdaq gain, PDLI couldn't get it going today. Looking at PDLI chart, our gap hitter, MHamil, would see two gaps. One at 86 the other at 118. I am looking for PDLI to go right past the gap at 118 and within 2 weeks test 86 and then rebouned. Look for an entry at 123-125 as PDLI may get an oversold bounce. Then look for 118 on the downside next 2 days. If it bounces there after filling first gap,
perhaps cover 1/2 position.
August 115 puts PQITC - look for an entry at 4.5
SHORT TERM OVERSOLD Over Earnings Estimates B2B e-Commerce Stocks:
1. Exodus Communications (NASDAQ:EXDS)
2. Purchase Pro (NASDAQ:PPRO)
Along with the leader in the B2B e-Commerce space CMRC. The following 2 stocks were both extremely popular when the NASDAQ was trading over
4000.00 less than 7 days ago. Both EXDS, and PPRO reported blow out
numbers on earnings. It would appear both stocks are ready for bounces
back up as EXDS was over 60.00 went under 45.00 yesterday and PPRO was
over 50.00 went under 40.00 yesterday less then 10 trading days ago.
I will pick up shares of both of these "short term" oversold stocks.
BUY AREA: 43.75
Sell Stop: 39.8750
1-5 DAY TARGET: 48.00
BUY AREA: 37.50
Sell Stop: 35.93750
1-5 DAY TARGET: 44.50-45.00
STOCKS ON MY SCREENS TODAY: By SJ!
1. JDSU- I still like a re test of 107.50 to fill in open gap 106.75-112.25
2. RNWK- It might see 45.00 today
3. PWAV- Came on late and worked out well 36.00 resistance now as I will sell off open
4. MACR- Didn't do much yesterday. Holding for 80.00 re visit.
5. IDTI -Nice call Sago watch it very close
FNSR- Came on late and went up big watch close.
6. EMC - oversold short term JNIC is a play off this been killed.
7. CORV- IPO should hold 75.00 today
8. TBIO - Watching this one close.
9. NUFO- What a bounce back.
10. MRVC - Oversold a screaming buy off 52.00 huge support
11. NTRO- This one looks like it retraces 44.00 area a buy there.
12. FLEX- Watch it close came on late in day and finsihed about even.
13. NEWP- 85.8750 it has big support I buy 86.00 look for 15% bounce back
14. BSTI- Had no news but had a big percentage gain yesterday will continue to watch
15. ACCL- Recent IPO from June was killed then bounced back yesterday.
16. ALSC- really came on at close 20.00 is resistance
17. PWER- reported good numbers then sold off more than 10.00 may bounce back
18. TIBX- Shorted this one at 103.00 106.00 buy stop -- Looking for a 92.50 retrace
19. SVNX- This 5 month old IPO looks bottomed
20. OVTI- Watch for buyers as quiet period nears ending
21. STLW - This one sure looks like its on its way to 43.00-44
22. IMNX- 55.00 resistance 47.00 support
23. TRRA- Says it will have big numbers.
24. LCOS- Should bounce back off TRRA
25. LPTH- way oversold in last 10 days.
26. IFCI- Nearly saw 20.00 if it can hold 17.8750 its a buy
27. CRA - really oversold 86.00 its a buy
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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