The Play Of The Day
July 6, 2000
09:01 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
TODAY'S GAME PLAN: By The Stock Jock!
According to their **stochastics many stocks are currently oversold in the Tech, and Internet sector. I will look to buy into these oversold issues as they could very easily be shorted, thus sending them up faster today. I am going to look for bounces of about 10% back up from currently oversold levels today. I will look to sell many of my stocks about 65 minutes ahead of today's close. I personally feel that many Tech and Internet related issues will pull back more over the next 3 trading days.
(**Stochastics is a technical trading term that an Active Trader uses to determine where the most recent closing price is in relation to the price range for a certain interval. Two lines are plotted, a "fast" line, and a "slow" line. Both lines measure a period of times related to the stocks moving average. The readings are given terms of percentages.)
NASDAQ RANGES YESTERDAY:
Previous close: 3991.00
Most Common Range: 3922-3909
*NASDAQ HIGHS & LOWS
Current 5 day high: 3995.00
Current 5 day low: 3849.00
Current 15 day high: 3995.00
Current 15 day low: 3830.00
Current 30 day high: 4074.00
Current 30 day low: 3695.00
NASDAQ SUPPORT & RESISTANCE:
Nasdaq Support: 3830.00
Nasdaq Resistance: 3949.00
(*The Nasdaq Composite is an index of 100 tech and Internet related
issues. Since its a market cap--a weighted index can be a good indicator to help show where the overall market is heading. However most stocks still tend to trade up or down within the US Stock Market based on individual criteria. If an issue has news, or is heavily oversold or overbought it most often tends to trade independently of the Nasdaq)
Today's Play of The Day is: Novellus Systems: (NASDAQ:NVLS)
Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) got hit hard yesterday, as it pulled back more than 12% from just under 60.00 to close on Monday at 59.25 to go as low as 51.25 yesterday. The drop in less than 2 days was 8.00, which was 11.00 points off its recent 30 day high of 63 reached less than 15 trading days ago.
This stock looks to be oversold as investors bailed en masse once it lost 55.00 yesterday. I tried to play this one off its recent solid support at 55 (twice it bounced off 55.00 last week and went 3.00 points higher). However, it was to no avail as this one not only lost 55.00 but then lost 52.00.
It came in today at just under 52.00. The biggest reason, other than that its oversold and looks like a stock active traders will come in and buy, is that it has big support at 55.50. It has a TRIPLE bottom in its current 30 day range with lows of 51.37, 51.43750, and 51.43750. It should hold 51.50 today at its worst level. With a sell stop of 51.00 on this one I see little risk and a good opportunity to get in this one for a move back to 55-56 perhaps as early as today.
KEY INDICATORS: NVLS
Buy Area: 51.8750-52.25
Sell Stop: 51.00
1 - 2 DAY TARGET: 55.00-57.00
Type of Trade: Short term Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: NVLS
I really like the July 2000 55.00 calls today as a daytrade. If NVSL
trades under 52.75 today on open I buy 5 of these!
BONUS PLAY #1 Advanced Fibre Communications (NASDAQ:AFCI)
This Fibre Optics play is again too good for me to pass up today. It worked well last week for 3.00 points off 43.1250 area. It looks even better today as it is currently oversold, and in the midst of a NASDAQ Tech wreck of more than 120 NASDAQ points shedding, AFCI managed to hold its current 30 day low of 42.25 yesterday. 42.25 is so KEY for this stock for 3 big reasons that should work well to help my cause in buying into this stock today.
1) It held 42.25 yesterday, last Wednesday's low, and also a double bottom of key support.
2) At this oversold level 2 brokers came out and called the AFCI sell off 52.00 the day before last Wednesday an "excellent buying opportunity" as they viewed the stock as oversold, and a tremendous value.
3) It bounced back the day those Brokers upgraded it all the way back to 51.00 just one off its high the previous day of 52.00.
I am hopeful today that those brokers don't come out and reiterate the
stocks buying opportunity. So far they haven't. When they did last week it caused the stock to open at 46.00 plus off 42.25. I am confident that if they don't say anything today they will speak by buying this stock in volume today as they almost tricked investor's to send it up last week so it could drop back more and then they could go in for the longer term!
KEY INDICATORS: AFCI
Buy Area: 42.8750-43.50
Sell Stop: 41.8750
1-2 DAY TARGET: 46.50-47.75
3-10 DAY TARGET: 48.50-52.00
Type of Trade: daytrade/ swing trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: AFCI
I will buy 10 of the AFCI July 50.00 Calls right off today's open!
SHORT PLAY TODAY: Broad Vision (NASDAQ:BVSN)
BroadVision (NASDAQ:BVSN) traded up yesterday more than 5.00 at one point as it came very close to its recent break out point of 58.00. The stock last traded at 58.00 (or over) on 6/16/00. It went as high as 63.68 once it broke 58.00. This also was the date the NASDAQ found its current 30 and 60 day high. BVSN was hit by profit taking late in the day yesterday as the NASDAQ index fell more than 100.00. BVSN should trade no higher today than 56.93750 after it closed yesterday at 54.56 I like this stock to fall back to under 54.56 after it misses 57.00. It then should drop back over the next 3-5 days, and test its current 15 day low of 48.38 where it has solid support.
KEY INDICATORS: BVSN
Sell Short Area: 56.25-56.93750
Buy Stop: 59.75
1-2 DAY TARGET: 53.50-52.25
3-5 DAY TARGET: 49.25-50.00
I Go LONG BVSN at 48.6250 and look for 52.50.
BONUS PLAY # 3 Biogen, Inc. (NasdaqNM: BGEN)
Biogen, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company principally engaged in the
business of developing, manufacturing and marketing drugs for human health care. Biogen currently derives revenues from sales of its AVONEX (Interferon beta-1a) product for the treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, and from royalties on worldwide sales by the Company's licensees of several products covered under patents controlled by the Company. Such products include certain forms of alpha interferon, hepatitis B vaccines and hepatitis B diagnostic test kits, among others. In addition, through various collaborations, the Company is involved in the clinical developments of the other products, including AMEVIVE (LFA3TIP), adenosine A(1) antagonists, ANTOVA (Humanized 5C8), LT-Beta Receptor, VLA-4 Inhibitors, Hedgehog Proteins, gene therapy products, and other programs. AVONEX is on the market in over 50 countries, including countries in continental Europe, North and South America and the Middle East.
Stock Fans, Biogen is in breakout mode. Biogen has a PR of 44 a 112% growth rate and cash flow per share of $1.76. The Bio-techs are leading the way. Biogen is hot property and I am looking for a dip for entry.
Key Indicators: BGEN
Buy Area: $68.50 to $69.25
TARGET: $74.44 to $77.91
Time Frame: 3 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $3.88
BONUS PLAY # 4 Tumbleweed Communications Corp. (Nasdaq: TMWD)
Tumbleweed Communications Corp. provides advanced e-mail solutions for business communications. Its products and services enable businesses to create secure, managed, online communication channels, leveraging established e-mail networks and enterprise applications. With Tumbleweed's Integrated Messaging Exchange (IME), the Company combines an open,scalable messaging software platform, a suite of applications for specific business processes, and a broad range of professional services capabilities to provide a secure channel for both sending and receiving business critical information online. With Tumbleweed Messaging Management System (MMS), the Company allows enterprises to protect and control their Internet communication by automatically filtering, monitoring and archiving messaging traffic, and by dynamically routing sensitive messages and documents through appropriate channels.
Stock Fans, Tumbleweed is in the news. They have the software that allows digital signatures over the Internet. Sales are growing, but profitability is still off in the future. Volume is the key. It has been under accumulation for the last 3 days. The chart timing indicators look good for the swing.
Key Indicators: TMWD
Buy Area: $54.00 to $55.00
TARGET: $59.125 to $61.875
Time Frame: 3 to 8 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.75 - $1.50 point scalps. Avg. price range $4.04
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. BMCS- I like this one off 19.8750 today.
2. ISLD- It looks like it could bounce back to 52.00 today.
3. GNSL- If it can hold 19.50 it could add on more today.
4. ORCL- I like 72.00 as support and 75 as resistence.
5. YHOO- I like it to test its recent 5 day low of 118.8750 today. I am a buyer under 120.00.
6. EBAY- It should hold 50 today.
7. CY- it closed in after hours over its 200 day MA at 38.75. I like it to bounce back today.
8. EXDS- I called this one at 41.00 it went to 40.50 and held well. It should see some buyers today.
9. PWAV- It is oversold. I see 36.8750 as strong support and worth a buy under 39.00
10. PSFT- I like a bounce back today of maybe 2.00
11. JDSU- I see this one as 123.00 high and then drop back and test 116.31 perhaps today. I short this one over 122.8750 today.
12. RNWK- I like a test of 45.00 in next 5 days.
13. LEXG - Watch this one traded at 36.00 day high.
14. FDX- Impressed me may break 42.00 today If it does I go in big.
15. SUNW- Strong buy, but I see it pulling back 5.00
16. RIMM- Target set at 63.00. I will buy into this one under 50.00 today and look for 55.00
17. RMBS- I like a move back to 102.8750-103.50 then drop back and test 96.00
18. INTC- Bounce 2 lose 4 into close.
19. CSCO- Test 60.0 into close
20. CHIR- A bio tech I will watch could break out.
21. CRA- it looks good to hold 95.00 today. I like 105.00 as a high.
22 LSI- Bounce back today.
23. XLNX- oversold I go in right off open.
24. TQNT- Oversold bounce back today.
25. CVMT- I like 80.1250 to fill today and I buy under 81.50. sell stop
79.00, 5 day 85 target.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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