The Play Of The Day
July 3, 2000
08:29 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Attention All Play of The Day PLUS Stock Members!
Today many expect low volume in the trading markets. Therefore, I will only send an ALERT EMAIL today if I see a day traded range play that can find its target today. With such a thin volume, the moves up and down could be much more volatile than normal. It doesn't make sense to me to trade or send an ALERT EMAIL that would need to be held overnight to reach its TARGET.
Also LIVE Trading Room Members - I will be in the LIVE Trading Room most of today!
Thanks, your host, Stock Jock!
NASDAQ RECAP FRIDAY:
Late into the day on Friday the NASDAQ made a run off its day low of 3889.00 (reached at 3:32 PM EST) and added on 78.00 points to close up 88.00 at 3967.00. The index closed at its day highs and just off its week high of 3974.00--100 points off its current 30 day high of 4074.00 reached last month.
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Stock Fans, it sure looked to this trader like those NASDAQ Market Makers teamed up with Fund Managers investing in NASDAQ stocks, as they took advantage of the little guy (individual investors) forcing them out of their NASDAQ stocks on Friday at their lows or very close to them. Those same Fund Mangers were probably looking to add on some final percentage gains to their portfolios for the quarter and came in very late in the day and bought many NASDAQ stocks off their lows after the little guy had sold into shorted stock. This action then took the NASDAQ up fast on big block volume: 78 points to close at 3967.00.
If that is indeed what happened on Friday, then today we may begin to see clues as to why it was done. There can be in this market, believe it or not only 2 scenarios. One the NASDAQ now goes higher, or 2 it now goes lower. It seems simple enough, however, to figure out what way it actually goes in the near future is anything but easy!
What I will look for in the NASDAQ today is what many already predict-- low volume. The NASDAQ will only trade with the rest of the US Stock Market till 12:00 PM EST time today. This shorted day may be one where we could see the NASDAQ have some rather unusual block volume. If we see block volume (Fund Mangers buy stock in block volume. These are large numbers of shares called blocks) today and the NASDAQ drops then we can conclude that Fund Mangers are investing in NASDAQ stocks the last 30 - 60 days and are selling out of those stocks since the quarter has now ended and they are looking for lower priced, perhaps oversold or value stocks on the NASDAQ. We may not see this today as many have already done so ahead of the 4th of July. However, we could see this later this week. If we do witness this phenomenon, then one can almost conclude the NASDAQ is setting up to drop back and trade lower.
We could also begin to see evidence today, that the NASDAQ is setting up to go higher as it trades to the upside today and follows through on Friday's explosive close and continues to add on. This type of action
could be caused by investors as well as Fund Mangers concluding that the Fed has finished increasing rates in this an election year, in turn causing the NASDAQ to go higher and break its current 60 day high of 3974.00
THE NASDAQ'S POSSIBLE KEY INDICATORS TODAY:
The NASDAQ current 5 day high is 3974.00. If the NASDAQ breaks this level today, only needing 7.00 points to hit that level then the next level to look for would be 3987.00 (the NASDAQ low the day it broke over 4000 in June.) The next level to the upside would then be 4074.00--the current 30 day high on the index. If the NASDAQ can trade, and close over 4038.90 it is once again out of its current bear market as indicated by trading 20% off its 52 week high of 5132.00-- currently at 3967.00.
The NASDAQ on the downside has support today at 3889.00 which is Friday's low, as well as 3830.00 which is the current 10 day low on the NASDAQ. If 3830.00 is lost, then the NASDAQ next level of support is 3695.00 where it traded last exactly 15 trading days ago.
I will do what I always do in today's shorted session
Play the NASDAQ in its trading ranges trade the Play's featured below. I will then look to add to my positions if the NASDAQ breaks its current 5 day high of 3974.00. Or decrease my positions if the NASDAQ trades under its low of Friday 3889.00.
Today's Play of The Day is: BroadVision (NASDAQ:BVSN)
BroadVision (NASDAQ:BVSN) is a leader in personalized e-business applications. BroadVision's comprehensive suite of integrated applications is built for delivery via the Web and wireless devices. Companies using BroadVision's proven applications get to market quickly, launching innovative e-commerce, self-service and enterprise information sites. These sites enable personalized interactions and transactions with customers, partners, suppliers and employees. BroadVision One-To-One(TM) applications power innovative business-to-consumer sites and business-to-business exchanges for the world's top companies in financial services, telecommunications, retail and travel. BroadVision applications are available in more than 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Redwood City, Calif., USA, the company can be reached at 650/261-5100 or at www.broadvision.com BroadVision (NASDAQBVSN) traded as low as 48.00 on Friday, before it went as high as 53.00 on Big block volume into the close, and found 53.00. It couldn't hold 53.00 as it closed just over 50.00.
The stock could drop today to 48.00 again, and could in thin volume if it sells off go as low as 46.00 where it has a current double bottom and low of 46.00. The double bottom there 4.00 off Friday's close looks to be KEY SUPPORT for shares of BVSN. It should hold 42.75 at its worst level as it has a gap to fill in its trading chart at 43.50. Therefore, I will play BVSN this way today:
KEY INDICATORS: BVSN (LONG)
Buy Area: 46.1250-46.8750
Sell Stop: 43.00 (add more under 44.50)
Time Frame: could happen today.
Type of Trade: daytrade
BONUS PLAY #1 Kemet Corp (NYSE:KEM)
KEM sets up well as a swing trade as its a NYSE stock at the below KEY INDICATORS. I will watch for volume of at least 2 million today. It has averaged 2.33 million the last 10 trading days.
KEY INDICATORS: KEM
Buy Area: $24.75 - 25.50
Sell Stop: $24.00
1 DAY TARGET: N/A
2-5 DAY TARGET: $28.00
10 DAY TARGET: $30.00 - 32.00
Type of Trade: Swing
STOCK TO WATCH TODAY: Efficient Networks (NASDAQ:EFNT)
I called this stock short last week for a nice 5.00 point gain as it hit its expected target early. I then saw it explode off that level and called it long in "Stocks on My Screen: section last week. It went over 60.00 then broke KEY RESISTANCE of 72.56 on Friday as it went as high as 75.56 before it closed up over 4.00 plus at 73.56 which was still one over what was earlier that day key resistance.
If EFNT can hold 72.56 then I will buy the stock up big looking for at least 75.50 to 78.00 today as it could break further to the upside. The fact that it broke out higher Friday and held those gains, also makes me a buyer just off at its low Friday of 66.50. Therefore, over 72.56 I go long today and set Sell Stop at 70.50. And my TARGET that you look for is 75.50-78.00. If it loses 70.00 then I will look to get in at 68.50-69.50 and set my Sell Stop at 65.50 and look for a move back to 72.00 today.
SJ KEY SHORT: Island (NASDAQ:ISLD) (SHORT)
ISLD ran up Friday on news, it however couldn't hold KEY RESISTANCE of 49.25 into the close and actually closed 2 lower then that. I will play ISLD the following way today:
KEY INDICATORS: ISLD SHORT
Sell Short: 48.50-49.8750
Buy Stop: 51.25
Time Frame: today
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
Sago - Is Celebrating Independence Day in Florida!
He'll be back later this week!
STOCKS ON MY SCREEN TODAY: By The Stock Jock!
1. GNSL- It looked good reaching 15.00 into close. It should hold 13.75 today. Its a stock that has forced some good traders to sell as it drops fast. It has risen just as fast off its lows to go higher. I like 19.00 soon: Sell Stop firm 12.6250
2. EFCX- It should hold
3. ACCL- if it can hold 40 its a buy
4. QQQ- If it loses 92.00 today then I will short it.
5. BDCM- I like it to hold 197.00 today
6. YHOO- it has support at 118.75 which is a 2 day low. It loses that it has support and I buy at 115.00. If it breaks over 126.00 I buy for 131 move.
7. JDSU- ETEK is now closed and 147 million ETEK investors shares are in JDSU. If it loses 116.25 we could see JDSU really sell off as many cash in those massive gains.
8. EBAY- I like a re test of 50.00 soon
9. LEXG - 32.8750 support 35 looks possible if it holds if not short it to 28.25
11. ADAT- watching for more upside.
12. AFCI- It should hold 43.25 today and then look to go higher 52 next 5 days
13. MACR- I like a retest of 88 coming
14. INTM- It went up big then sold off I like a move up of 3 today.
15. PKTR- Same deal--it sold off after gaining 8.00 wow what a call. I like a 4 point bounce higher next 2 days.
16. RIMM- It should hold and have support as a buy at 41.00 sell stop 38.50.
17. ZIGO- It should hold 82.00
18. MRVC- It may retrace to 62.00 soon
19. TIBX- It could bust out if adds on 3 today.
20. CRA- I like a drop under 90.00 soon
21. HGSI - More selling lose 5-8 today.
22. RMBS- I like 96.1250 - 94.50 to be tested soon--sell stop 91.93750.
23. EMLX- I am short for 63.50 I go long for a 3 point bounce there then re short it for a 58.00 test if it breaks 68.00 then I will go long and look for 71.00 -76.00
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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