The Play Of The Day
July 19, 2000
08:55 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Stock Fans, the NASDAQ lost 4182.00 yesterday-- KEY SUPPORT in the range. Now it would seem that INTC, and MSFT aren't enough to get back yesterday's losses. With that in mind, I look for the index to drop back and hold 4078.00 by about 40 points. That figure would be 4129.00 and
it should hold this area and allow AOL to have its chance today.
The open on the NASDAQ looks to be about 4152.00-- a key area of support as it is 100 above the NASDAQs current 10 day low. 4052.00 doesn't look like it will hold and I look for the bounce off 4129.00 today and then a move back up to just under 4205.00. I don't see INTC, MSFT as enough to get this index back to 4210 where it would need to go to find to get back any of its 100 plus losses yesterday.
Today's Play of The Day is: (7/14- IPO) OmniVision Tech. (NASDAQ:OVTI)
OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OVTI), is a leading provider of highly integrated, single chip semiconductor imaging devices. They design, develop and market high performance, high quality and cost efficient semiconductor imaging devices for computing, communications and consumer electronics applications. OVTI's main product, an image sensor, is used in cameras and camera related products such as personal computer, or PC, cameras, digital still cameras and security system cameras. OVTI believes that they supply the most highly integrated single chip, complementary metal oxide semiconductor, or CMOS, image sensor. Its single chip design offers competitive advantages that can allow its customers to design cameras that are lower in cost, smaller, lighter in weight, consume less power, are more reliable and more easily integrated with other circuits than cameras using CCD technology or multiple chip CMOS image sensors. OVTI's main competitors are CCD Image Sensors, CMOS Image Sensors. Both of which are non publicly traded companies in the USA.
Yesterday, OVTI traded only 1.06 million that's a decrease of nearly 400% on its average 3 day volume of 4.8 million since its IPO debut last week. (on 7/14/00). The stock dropped more than 4.00 at one point yesterday after it had gone as high as 44.00--an all time high as it dipped as low as 36.00 in mid day trading on only 380k shares. Since the first 200k shares or so are what pushed OVTI up more than 2.50 at one point. It can be assumed that less than 150k shares, or about 10% yesterday, of OVTI's total volume caused OVTI to decrease in price.
True, the company has only 5 million shares outstanding, making it quite volatile. However, to have a range of more than 8.00 on volume--so low tends
to show that this stock might be setting up for big gains in the future.
Looking at its short 3 day history below we see the following information:
Day 1 (7/14/00) : 5 million shares price at 13.00 a share by Banc Boston Stevens.
7/14- Ranges were 27.00 low, high 37.62, close 34.00 on Volume of 11.2 million.
7/17- Ranges were 34.25 low, high 41.81, close 40.43 on Volume of 2.1 million.
7/18- Ranges were 36.12 low, high 44.00 close 36.12 on Volume of 1.06 million
The first thing the jumps out in the data listed above is higher highs as well as higher lows. This type of action, even though its over a very short period is still considered to be very bullish. The fact that OVTI is going higher everyday it trades, and not going as low shows its does have investors interest to the buy side.
So then, why did this stock drop back so much yesterday on so little volume? Well, to be honest there is really no complete way to tell. However, day 3 in an IPO is usually the day that a large majority of brokers can allocate shares back into the float that they held off the IPO. They don't necessarily sell them, but instead they settle and are made available to be counted as outstanding publicly traded shares.
This is just a theory mind you. However, I believe what was done yesterday forced the stock higher on momentum trading off the open, as few wanted to sell and buyers existed on the hot IPO. The stock promptly rose to 44.00 or up 2.19 over the previous days close. Then, in a declining market, brokers made available into the float the shares they had. Next, what happened is that the supply increased against sellers. In essence, the same action as Shorting took place. With more supply and few buyers in a down market the stock dropped fast and went down on what was less than 150k shares trading--of what would end up to be its day low. It fell almost exactly 2.19 over its previous day low of 34.25. When this happened, the momentum investors were forced out and shares, perhaps badly needed in the future, decreased to their days lows. The stock, however, would bounce fast and never lose 37.00 the rest of the day as more than 680,000 shares or 66% or 2/3 of its volume would come in after 36.12 was hit increasing the stocks price.
In essence Stock Fans, this stock appears to be one that has bottomed and brokers as well as market makers too have stolen the stock at what would seem be low prices and sell at increased prices. Therefore, OVTI would certainly appear to me to be a great pick up today as it certainly would appear that increased prices are coming.
The way I will play this stock today is off the middle of yesterday's range. I don't see it falling under 36.12 today, or hopefully anytime soon. I also see it perhaps as holding 37.50 today as it again would then continue its pattern of higher lows, as i discussed earlier very bullish! With that in mind, I feel the best spot to go into this stock is between 37.50 and 38.50. It could open higher and go up to perhaps 41.50 or so then drop again. Or it could open lower and increase today as well. What I like about it most is it closed at 38.25 about 2.00 over its day low and 4 over its 3 day low. If it continues this pattern then today's high could be 46.00 - 47.00. That could bust it out. I also really like this one 22 days from now when its "queit period" ends and Banc Boston Robert Stevens, a very aggressive and influential IPO brokerage firm should upgrade shares of OVTI to a "Strong Buy."
Buy Area: 37.6250-38.75
Sell Stop: 35.25 ( under 36.00 I buy more and hold till 35.25 is lost.
3 day support = 34.00
1-3 DAY TARGET: 43.6250-44.50 (maybe 46.00-47.00)
4-10 DAY TARGET: 48.50-52.00
(At 34.00 I will take another stab at this one if for some strange reason
it tests that area. The indicators then are: 34.3750 BUY Sell Stop 32.50
(1-3 DAY TARGET: 38.50. )
"Inside the Numbers!" OVTI
4 Day Support = 27.00
4 day Resistance = 44.00
Total 3 Day Volume = 14.3 million
Total Range = 17.00.
Average Daily range = 8.72 )
*IPO RISK: With a very short trading pattern and a 4 day low of 27.00 Firm "Actually electronic placed sells stops are a must! Mind related sell
stops are too much to ask in the heat of battle!"
BONUS PLAY #1 Geron Corp (NASDAQ:GERN)
Geron is developing products for regenerative medicine by integrating its three patented complementary technology platforms:
1) telomerase activation,
2) human embryonic stem cells and
3) nuclear transfer.
These three platforms may allow the production of limitless quantities of tissue-matched replacement cells to restore function to any organ in the body. This approach could be used to treat patients suffering from chronic degenerative conditions such as heart disease, liver disease, diabetes, stroke, spinal cord injuries and Parkinson's disease.
With this type of research now in its 3rd year. GERN has gone from a virtually unknown stock to a 30.00 plus stock of late. Its volume yesterday was massive as it was over 1.5 million vs. its average 30 day volume of 584k and its average 3 day volume of 355k. Taking all of this into account against GERNs current trading graph--it appears that GERN can now make a run at its 30 day high of 36.00 over the next 5 days after a pull back to about 30.00 or so today. It could lose 30.00, but only for a minute or two. GERN technically has been able to hold its 200 and 50 day (MA) moving averages all this month. That fact makes it very bullish as it appears to have buyers news or no news. Its 52 week high is over 60.00. If it can find 40.00 in the next 10 days or so it will have added on more than 40% to its 50 day moving average of 26.00 as well as 200 days.
I like this stock now and also in the next 30-90 days. It is definitely a possible add on to the Long Yardage Portfolio BigPlayStocks.com Tech Index. (BPSTIX next week. A bounce off 30.00 or thereabouts should bring in buyers as a slowing economy, and rising interest rates shouldn't effect this companies research.
(Buy area 1 = 50% wanted shares. Buy Area 2 = rest of wanted shares)
KEY INDICATORS: GERN
Buy Area 1: 30.3750-30.75
Buy Area 2 29.8750-28.00
*Sell Stop: 26.00 (*wider sell stop see below)
1-5 DAY TARGET: 32.00-35.50
5-10 DAY TARGET: 38.25-39.00
(VOLUME is KEY: 1.6 million needed to trade more then yesterday)
BONUS PLAY #2 Bio Tech: Mederex (NASDAQ:MEDX) SHORT
Medarex, Inc, (NASDAQ:MEDX), is a biotechnology company that is developing therapeutic products for cancer, autoimmune disease, secondary cataracts and other life-threatening and debilitating diseases based on proprietary technology in the field of immunology. The Company's therapeutic products are currently under development and will need the approval of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration prior to commercial distribution. The Company's human antibody discovery technology includes the HuMAb-Mouse technology and Kirin's Tc Mouse technology. Both of these technologies use genetically engineered mice to produce fully human monoclonal antibodies.
MEDX, is yet another Bio Tech play that has really exploded since January of this year. Its 52 week low is 4.00 and its 52 week high reached in March 2000 is- "believe it or not!" 205.00! The stock got hammered in April and bounced off its January and year low of 34.00. It managed to come back and about 5 days ago broke 100.00 for the first time in over 3 months. The stock, however, ran into massive resistance there as it was unable to break its Mid Feb 2000 break out area of 122.00 where this one took off and found 205.00-- its year high and all time high 205.00.
Two KEY items make me choose this stock today:
1) It has created a 2 day double top at area of 104.48. It was unable to break that area both yesterday and the prior day.
2) What coincides with that is the fact that yesterday, in a majority down market MEDX traded only 50% off its normal 30 a day volume and added on almost 2.00.
These 2 KEY Factors show me that this stock was shorted to resistance of the previous day and stopped, unable to break out and run. This makes me feel confident that this stock is one to SHORT down to 30 day support of 86.50. I will look to go long on this one at that point.
KEY INDICATORS: MEDX SHORT
Sell Short Area: 98.50-102.00
Buy Stop Area: 106.00
1-5 DAY TARGET: 89.50-88.50
Type of Trade: Swing Trade.
(LONG on MEDX under 88.00 Sell Stop 85.50. 1-5 day TARGET: 92.25)
SPECIAL CALL TODAY!:
LONG TERM OVERSOLD STOCK HOLD TILL December 30, 2000!
Go.com (NYSE:GO) oversees many of the Web's most popular sites and services, including the GO Network portal, ABC.com, ABCNEWS.com, Disney.com, DisneyStore.com ESPN.com, NFL.com, NBA.com, Family.com, and Mr. Showbiz. Go.com was formed as a result of the November 1999 merger between Infoseek Corporation and The Walt Disney Company's online unit, Buena Vista Internet Group (BVIG). On November 17, 1999, stockholders of The Walt Disney Company and Infoseek approved Disney's acquisition of the remaining interest in Infoseek that it did not already own. The acquisition was effected by the creation and issuance of a new class of common stock, called Go.com common stock. Upon consummation of the acquisition, the Company combined its Internet and direct marketing businesses with Infoseek to create a single Internet and direct marketing business called Go.com. Disney retains an interest of approximately 71% in Go.com at March 31, 2000.
Stock Fans, This stock is severely oversold at current levels. I like this stock right here as DIS gets upgraded today. GO has many different outlets that should allow it to be a power come Christmas time 2000.
GO technically is oversold. It also looks good here as it has a TRIPLE BOTTOM created at 11.06. As long as GO holds 11.06 it looks great for right now. It was hammered in a sell off of it for really no apparent reason that I could find all the way to 9.68. I will set a long term sell stop of 9.00 on this one and look to add under 11.06 - 9.00. I like this stock to make a move to perhaps 20.00 by December. 52 week high 33.50
KEY INDICATORS: GO
Buy Area: 11.25-11.50
Sell Stop: 8.8750
5.5 Month TARGET: 20.00-22.50
Type of Trade: Longer Term 5.5 month hold
Run The Options: GO
The December 2000 GO 20.00 Call Options
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY #1 PE Corporation-Celera Genomics Group (NYSE: CRA)
PE Corporation-Celera Genomics Group (Celera Genomics) generates and commercializes genomic information to accelerate the understanding of biological processes and to assist pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life science research entities in areas of research including: new drugs and improved drug development processes; novel genes and factors that regulate and control gene expression; and interrelationships between genetic variability, disease, and drug response. Through GenScope, Celera Genomics offers genomics-related products and services including gene discovery, target discovery and validation, efficacy and safety assessment, and pharmacogenomics study services. Through AgGen, the Company specializes in providing services to the agriculture market. AgGen provides genotyping and genomic services for plant and animal breeding programs.
Celera: New Customers, New Directions
Stock Fans, this sector is looking to lead the pack. CRA has new paying customers and the customer list looks to grow. This play was brought to my attention a couple days ago by one of the pro traders in the room. If you are not in the room you are missing out! CAUTION, this is a volatile stock. It has a 10% average daily range. The timing indicators for this look to pop.
KEY INDICATORS: CRA
Buy Area: $99.00 to $100.00
Time Frame: 2 to 6 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $1.00 - $2.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $10.17
BONUS PLAY # 2 Office Depot, Inc (NYSE: ODP)
Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a supplier of office products and services. The Company sells to consumers and businesses of all sizes through its three business segments: Stores, Business Services and International. As of March 3, 2000, the Company operated 829 retail office supply stores through its Stores Division in 46 states, the District of Columbia and five Canadian provinces. In its Business Services segments, the Company operates customer service centers (CSCs) in 18 states. These CSCs perform warehousing and delivery services on behalf of all of its domestic segments, handling most of its delivery business. The Company's International Division sells office products and services to retail, contract and commercial customers in 17 countries outside the United States and Canada.
Office Depot Names Bruce Nelson Chief Executive Officer; New Leader Brings Strong Leadership Record in Office Products Industry to Office Depot''s Top Position.
Stock Fans, talk about oversold! Volume is on the increase with the news of the new CEO. Low risk at this level. Office Depot has a PE of 8 and cash flow per share of $1.58. Timing indicators look solid for a pop. But I will wait for my price!
KEY INDICATORS: ODP
Buy Area :$6.25 to $6.4375
Time Frame: 3 to 6 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.05 - $.10 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $.30
PRO TRADER MATEO'S OPTION PLAY:
Aether Systems, Inc. (NasdaqNM:AETH)
Aether Systems, Inc. provide wireless data services, systems and software enabling people to use handheld devices for mobile data communications and real-time transactions. Aether's strategy initially focused on developing services for the financial services sector. Current services include TradeRunner, a real-time wireless trading and financial information service offered to the online customers of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Online, and the Reuters MarketClip service for financial market price quotes, alerts and information. The Company is also developing wireless trading and financial services for other major financial institutions, including Charles Schwab. Through recent acquisitions, the Company has expanded its services into the healthcare, sales force automation and transportation logistics and delivery industries. OmniSky, a company formed by Aether and 3Com, is pursuing opportunities for wireless e-mail, Internet access and other electronic transactions applications.
Sellers are beginning to take control of this one. Money flows are turning negative and if Naz retraces here it will get pulled down with the market. If Naz turns up, look for an entry at 170-175 for this put play. If AETH can break 181 then it may have more upside in mind. 148 is the 30 day low and support at this point. Oscillators turning very negative at this point and AETH looks shorted.
AETH can move 20-25 points in one day, making it a very volatile issue to say the least. Pick your entry carefully, as a good entry point will reward you handsomely.
August 150 AETH Puts - HEXTJ last ask 15 3/4 - (these will be worth approx. 23 if AETH tests 30 day low of 148, a 50% return)
Use a 25% stop loss on this trade from your entry point.
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. ICGE: 45.00 is big resistance. If it can hold 42.00 today it could make a run as it
2. AOL- Earnings tonight. It could find 62.00 ahead of the bell after it maybe drops to 57.8750 low intraday. Under 58.50 I go into AOL for a nice move up on numbers.
3. LDP- Strong I love this one. 20 in next 10 days.
4. IIXL- Nice volume-- it could make 20 soon
5. WGAT- Up nice on news looking to see if it holds
6. GOAM- News yesterday. Looking for increase.
7. JNIC- EMC like. It is getting hot.
8. EMC- Nice call Sago looks good.
9. CLRS -Looks good on volume.
10. CMGI- If it can hold 41.00 it looks good its a buy at 42.00
11. EFNT- 77.50 support buy at 72.00
12. CMTN- Hammered I like 108.00 on a bounce.
13. MSFT- Downgraded/upgraded after coming in over expectations. It may go as high as 78.00 today as it should hold 74.00
14. RAMP- Big volume on news watch for follow thru.
15. IDTI- Blew away numbers trading up 6. I buy at 72.00
16. STAD- 900% increase in volume on this cheapie on no news!
17. GNSL- 19.1250 is 10 day and 15 day support at 19.25 I buy.
18. LPTH- It should hold 43.00 in a sell off
19. EXCA- what a stock. I like a bounce off 48.00 today
20. INTC- I look for them to sell the news and drop to 135.00 next 2 days.
21. JDSU 104.50 test on a drop.
22. UVN- Que Pasa? Big Numbers1 indeed! for this networker of Espagnol
23. STRM- Worth watching ahead of numbers
24. EBAY- on watch as earnings approach blew away in April.
25. INSP- same thing as EBAY both might be great pick ups down 10% in
sells off off yesterday's closes.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!
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