The Play Of The Day
July 17, 2000
06:00 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
SJ CALLING FOR NASDAQ 4800! This WEEK "Has He Fallen off the BULL and IS He Full of it! READ ON AS HE EXPLAINS WHY!
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY (Includes this week):
Stock Fans! Therrrre BACKKKKK! Yes! Finally, those beaten down issues such as HSAC, IIXL even ESHR ESFT they all added on major volume some of them more than 700% or more on Friday as the NASDAQ hammered, crushed, make up a new adjective for its issues Net and Tech related that were flying high in Jan, Feb, and March 2000 till April did more then Showered them. They made like Wicked Witches Of The West and almost MELTED!
However, as in this "Wonderful World We call the NASDAQ!" they are back and on fire as the action many of the names showed on Friday sets up for a cycle that could and should send the NASDAQ to 4800.00 this week! The fact that these names are busting out on massive volume increases the likelihood that a move up should take place and have us sailing high by weeks end-- some of these stocks haven't traded more than a handful of shares a day of late. This sets up nicely for Options Expiration at the end of the week for July 2000!
You are all going see later in this email, that SJ was hard at work this weekend as some these company names many of you may have never seen. Others of you Vets may need to dust off your trading charts of these stocks from March! Today's Play's and Stocks on My Screen have them listed and ready to flash big volume and hopefully even bigger percentage gains on my screens today!
The Cycle may well end this Friday but I am looking for a move to 4800 this week once the NASDAQ possibly loses 4200.00--maybe even 4182.00 after today's open. The stock like BWAY, BLSW, SGNT, GO, GOTO they aren't running up on wishes and prayers they are doing so because the NASDAQ has 4200.00 back and investors, as well as traders, know all too well some pretty amazing things happened from NASDAQ 4200 - 4800 in March 2000!
What's going to do it? 3 Things!
Bears Shorting what they see as crazy moves higher
and Short Covering as those that went short in April get out of the way of the train!
Words SJ will have stamped on his Forehead today! "In the NASDAQ what goes up must go up more to come down!"
So Lets do it Today and this week and RIDE THE BULL!
GIDDY UP NASDAQ 4800.00 HERE WE COME!!!
Today's Play of The Day is: @Home Excite: (NASDAQ:ATHM)
Stock Fans! as I looked at about 500 stocks this weekend I almost passed out checking the old @Home Excite (NASDAQ:ATHM), As this ill fated name of late has been anything but "Exciting!"
This stock, ATHM has been hammered since its June 1999 explosion to 205.00 intraday its been blasted on not an adjusted split but instead on just plain hammering to a June 2000 low of? "Come on really!---- 15.00! Since then this stock has made a nice move as it has been as high as 23.00 on what ? 17 million shares about 10 days ago? Why didn't that volume send this one to over 30.00? Well, perhaps ATHM has other ideas as the July 30's 45's and July 65's option calls might be sneaky in showing me of late!
Stock Fans! ATHM has over 10,000 open interests on the ATHM July 30, 45, and 65 option calls Are u kidding ATHM is trading at 20.00 a share. Those options expire by this Friday! Is it possible for ATHM to maybe triple 20 + 20 + 20 = 60!!!
Perhaps the reason ATHM could go to 60.00 backing up those Options is there has been a rumor of a buy out before. Its been recent--and Friday's 7 million plus volume barrage moved it not a whole lot as it could be setting up to explode! Either way I go into ATHM and feel right "At Home!" today as I look for ATHM which has a chart with a 38 top spike from mid April 2000, and a low of 15 that = 23.00 Then, take Friday's high of 20.18750 and we have 43.00 add in the gain of 1.68 Friday and we have 200 day resistance for ATHM from April 14, 2000 the day that I think that they began to load up on those ATHM Call Options!
ATHM could see 44, 45 this week on just the 3 things I outlined in my NASDAQ Outlook today 65.00 would be buy out City!
KEY INDICATORS: ATHM
Buy Area: 20-21.50
Sell Stop: 17.00
1-3 DAY TARGET: 25.00-30.00
4- 5DAY TARGET: 33.00-44.00 even 45 60 if it gets bought out!
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
"RUN THE OPTIONS!" ATHM (100% RISK CAPITAL ONLY!)
Open interest on the ATHM July 35.00 calls is over 6000.00 That's more than 10.00 out of the money! In addition, the July 45.00 calls have over 3100.00 open interest, and the July 65 calls have more than 2250.00 open interest! All three option contracts sell for only 3/16 ($0.18750 each) If ATHM does go to 45.00- or 50.00 that means the ATHM Options could
increase by 2000% or more! 3.99 each!
BONUS PLAY #1 XCelera.com (AMEX:XLA)
This stock was over 220.00 in March 2000 then was crushed to under 20.00 by the end of April. It has now made a move over 25.00 again and added on more then 400% its normal volume Friday as it ran up 3.00. Its current Chart pattern is has created perhaps the most BULLISH of signs. It has its 50 day and 200 day MA touching that says BUY ME all over it and SJ is listening loud and clear!
KEY INDICATORS: XLA
Buy Area: 24.50-26.25
Sell Stop: 22.50
1-3 DAY TARGET: 32.00-36.00
1-5 DAY TARGET: 37.50-40.00
10 -30 DAY TARGET: over 50? It moves fast!
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS # 3 Internet Capital Group (NASDAQ:ICGE)
This former high flyer ICGE, added on a staggering 10 million plus shares Friday as it neared 40.00 a share and busted through its 50 day MA. This stock with CMRC, ARBA and the likes of other B2B Ecommerce plays exploding of late should add on fast. If this thing breaks 50.00 its gone to maybe 70.00 this stock could really go up like a rocket this week and easily according to its chart add on 30! And possibly almost double!
KEY INDICATORS: ICGE
Buy Area: 38.50-41.1250
Sell Stop: 36.00
1-3 DAY TARGET: 46.00-47.00
2-5 DAY TARGET 52.50-54.00
7 DAY + TARGET: 60! Could be!
"This Could be the Next HUGE TECH PLAY!"
Excalibur Technologies (NASDAQ:EXCA) PE RATIO IS 4,250.00
Bob Pro Trader Maxtrade! (what a name) in my LIVE Trading Room was as
Ecstatic as I was this weekend when I found EXCA. He is being the kind of TEAM Player that has set BPS.com Apart as he profiles EXCA more in depth for all of us!
Thanks BOB! Question is? Do you think Bob is buying EXCA? LOL read on !
EXCALIBUR TECHNOLOGIES. (NASDAQ:EXCA)
The first thing that jumps at me is the fact the stock had a sudden volume surge on Friday which led to a test of the all time high, 51.375. Then, the stock bounced off that and closed slightly lower, it appears that a breakout is indeed close. The stock traded 512% of its daily volume and all indicators point for a burst through the all time high into blue sky territory. On a short term technical basis the stochastic indicator is extremely overbought, but that can be a conflicting indicator given the huge volume. The long term opinion for the company is awesome the stock has tremendous support at 45.375 and again at what looks to be the 42.25/42.375 area. Its 200 DMA (daily moving average) is at 25.1875! and the 50 DMA is at 33.9375. This company has an EPS of .01 and a projected EPS for FYE of .12 and FYE 2002 of .44. Thats some serious growth!!
The current PE ratio is 4937.50...again that's 4937.50, no mistake. The fundamental target value with current valuations FYE 2001 is 592.50 per share! for FYE 2002 it would be 2171.50! All in all, its a buy IF the stock busts through the overhead resistance at 51.375. target 51.75 as an entry price with tight stop loss around support at 45.375.
I agree BOB, I am a BUYER 532.00 a share this stock is based on 2001 earnings estimates! WOW In the portal ecommerce solutions business. Need we say more! This stock could and should be with ZERO debt the JDSU I missed 3 years ago at 20 per share--its maybe that good and has only 14 million shares outstanding. Can you say EXPLOSION and SPLIT! I can! It looks great and of course it has risks like any and all stocks do but the potential REWARD on this one sure seems to erase the risk!
KEY INDICATORS: EXCA
Buy Area: 47.50-52.00
Sell Stop: 44.00
1-5 DAY TARGET: 53.00-55.00
2-10 DAY TARGET: 60.00 plus
30 -90 DAY TARGET: 80.00- 90.00
6 MONTH TARGET: 160.00
1 YEAR TARGET: 300.00 PLUS could be seen!
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY #1 EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC)
EMC Corporation and its subsidiaries design, manufacture, market and support a wide range of hardware and software products and provide services for the storage, management, protection and sharing of electronic information. These integrated solutions enable organizations to create an electronic information infrastructure, or what EMC calls an E-Infostructure. EMC is the supplier of these solutions, which are comprised of enterprise storage systems, networks, software and services. Its products are sold to customers utilizing a variety of the world's most popular computing platforms for key applications, including electronic commerce, data warehousing and transaction processing.
Stock Fans, EMC has been on my watch list for some time. They are a consistent new buy and or being added to the top funds. It has a timing rating of "A", RS of 90, EPS rate of 97 and cash flow / share of $.75. I like the spot on the chart and the increase in volume. One caveat, it reports earnings today. So with that in mind I will buy a 1/3 position and add on strength or weakness.
KEY INDICATORS: EMC
Buy Area: $79.50 to $80.25
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $3.01
BONUS PLAY # 2 TEKELEC (NasdaqNM: TKLC)
TEKELEC designs, manufactures, markets and supports network systems products, diagnostics systems and selected service applications for telecommunications networks and call centers. The Company's network systems products help direct and control voice and data communications. The Company's diagnostics products simulate a controlled network environment, which allows carriers and communications equipment manufacturers to test products to ensure that products conform to specifications and to evaluate network performance without risking the failure of the existing network. Some of the Company diagnostics products also allow the monitoring, diagnosis and surveillance of network elements while the network is in operation. The Company's call center products provide workforce management and intelligent call routing systems for single and multiple site call centers.
Stock Fans, is one of those stocks in a hot sector with great earnings and solid growth. The daily chart looks good for a pop. This is a little slower with an daily average volume of 690k. So set your alarms for the swing with TEKELEC!
KEY INDICATORS: TKLC
Buy Area: $47.00 to $47.50
Time Frame: 2 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $.75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $2.77
SJ'S STOCK TO WATCH: Blue Stone Software! (NASDAQ:BLSW)
This stock BLSW looks oh so good BLUE SKIES could indeed be dead ahead this stock could add on 10 more today! The volume was massive Friday!
PRO TRADER MATEO's OPTION PLAY TODAY!
Advanced Fibre Communications. (NasdaqNM:AFCI)
Advanced Fibre Communications, Inc. designs and manufactures end-to-end distributed multi-service access solutions for the portion of the telecommunications network between the carrier's central office and its subscribers, often referred to as the "local loop." The Company's Universal Modular Carrier 1000 is a global product family consisting of a variety of multi-service access platforms with integrated optics and intelligent customer premises equipment. The platform utilizes a hybrid asynchronous transfer mode/time division multiplexing (ATM/TDM) architecture, which provides a variety of loop interfaces for narrowband analog and digital services including plain old telephone service (POTS), integrated services digital network (ISDN), 1.544/2.048 million bits per second point-to-point dedicated digital circuit (T-1/E-1), high bit rate digital subscriber line (HDSL/HDSL2), and asymmetric digital subscriber line (ADSL) services.
AFCI reports after the bell today and is trying for a 90 day high. This telecom stock hit a wall at 64 in June. But it is well within reach of that mark now.Today AFCI will be in play and the July options are a great play. We recommend the July 60 calls. If AFCI comes with good numbers and market conditions remain favorable this week, AFCI could see 70. Watch for volume confirmation and breakout.
July 60 Call AQFGL last ask 2 1/2 - expires Friday!
August 65 Call AQFHM last ask 4 1/4
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. BWAY- Ecomm play added on huge volume. This thing could go.
2. INAP- Same thing watch close.
3. HSAC- Wow this Broadband play is adding on massive volume broke 50 day Friday.
4. LDP- Could this be the next MRVC?
5. MYPT- This one really looks good.
6. ESHR- Wow volume + 300% over 30 day avg. increased 30% Friday is it just beginning?
7. ESFT- This thing could explode!
8. LWIN- Wireless play is breaking out!
9. CAMP- Hammered Friday looked like it might have been on panic! Bounce back
10.KEYN- hammered 30% on profit taking ahead of numbers? I like a bounce back.
11. COVD- This stock could make a move all time high 66.00
12. NPNT- Big volume on this former high flying "Cable Guy!"
13. RTHM- In rythem indeed massive volume busted 50 day 200 is next
14. ADRX- Bio play ready to run
15. VSH- Another bio play oversold
16. IPIX- This one looks great on all that volume
17. PSIX- Volume could mane bust out
18. HGGP- This Internet Incubator could explode more. 20 plus all time high 12 Friday.
19. JDSU- it could see 121.00 soon
20. BVSN- Looking for a move back to 50.00
21. PWAV- Oversold look for 45.00
22. DIOD- Semi could add on more
23. GOTO- Huge volume wow could go higher
24. GO- Go indeed higher
25. WEBT - reoports numbers soon they never miss.
26. ANCR - Next stop could be 62.00!
Have a great day!
More to come.........
and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!
The Stock Jock and BigPlayStocks.com, Inc. are financial information publishers. Information on the www.bigplaystocks.com web site should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Financial information published on the www.bigplaystocks.com is intended to be an adjunct to your investment research, not a substitute thereof. The Stock Jock and BigPlayStocks.com, Inc. strive to publish accurate and complete financial data, but are not liable for the accuracy of the opinions and research posted on the www.BigPlayStocks.com web site.