The Play Of The Day
July 11, 2000
08:45 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Close: 3980.29 -42.91 (-1.07%)
Most Common Range: 3999.00-4011.00
KEY Earnings Today: Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO)
Reports its latest quater numbers following today's close
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Stock Fans, I am looking for the NASDAQ to have trouble breaking 3982.00 today as it should open under yesterdays low of 3976.00. I see the index as going under 3945.00 which is the number the index traded at about 15 trading days ago when the FED didn't increase rates. The index looks to be heading lower like YAHOO if it can't break yesterday's mid day high of 113.25 then it could say loud and clear to the NASDAQ that it is not going to impress like it has so many times in the past.
If YAHOO loses 107.00 I see the NASDAQ following YAHOO and making a move lower and testing 3881.00 which was the NASDAQ open on July 4, 2000. It would appear that about 92 points gets shaved off yesterday's low as the NASDAQ should look today to YAHOO for strength and realize late in the day as it loses 3909.00 and drops under 3900.00
that YAHOO has no answers until after the bell. Then its anyone's guess if YAHOO can come with numbers good enough to boost the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ, when its all over today should be less than 75.00 points off its crucial 5 day and 15 day low of 3820.00
NASDAQ KEY INDICATORS TODAY:
3 DAY HIGH: 4028.24
3 DAY LOW: 3976.20
5 DAY HIGH: 4028.24
5 DAY LOW: 3820.00
30 DAY HIGH: 4074.00
30 DAY LOW: 3695.00
60 DAY HIGH: 4074.00
60 DAY LOW: 3042.00
Today's Play of The Day is: Double Click: (NASDAQ:DCLK)
DCLK, is the premiere online sellers of banner advertising. It has also ventured into the ever growing commerce world. DCLK has more than 8 servers backing up each of its servers that generates banners of more than 2 million different adds per month.
Yesterday, DCLK dropped under its 200 day moving average on massive volume of well over 12 million share. That is more than 4 times its current 30 day average. Some of the volume can be accredited to the a DCLK rival called ENGA taking a client away from DCLK. However, I am hopeful that a big percentage of it can be attributed to the likes of it possibly bottoming as it may open today less than 1.50 off its 52 week low of 30.25.
DCLK was in the same position just under a year ago on August 5, 1999 when it, and most of the rest of the high flying Internet Sector got hit very hard. It was on this day that DCLK dropped to 60.50 (Now on a DCLK split in late 1999 it would be 30.25). It did go under its 200 day moving average then as well, but managed to bounce back less than 3 days later to 77.50 or just under 30%.
Technically DCLK would be a short in its current down trend. However, I am going to go with yesterday's massive volume, and its 52 week history and play it off its 52 week low. I could be wrong, and DCLK could be completely out of favor in the future, and be long past its golden age that occurred in late 1998 when it went from 20.00 to over 200.00 and split 3 times along the way. However, since it has been at this point before in August of 1999 and bounced back over 150% less than 7 months later, it is worth a play today off what should be 52 week low, and massive support of 30.25. You have to go back to Sept of 1998 (almost 3 years ago!) to find DCLK trading lower then a split adjusted 30.00!
KEY INDICATORS: DCLK
Buy Area: 30.75- 30.50
Sell Stop: 28.00
1-3 DAY TARGET: 33.25
3-5 DAY TARGET: 35.75-36.00
Type of Trade: daytrade/trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: DCLK
The July DCLK 35.00 CALLS as it loses my predicted 31.00 today
SJ KEY SHORT: BONUS PLAY#1 Tibico Software (NASDAQ:TIBX)
TIBX, has enjoyed a huge run that sent it more than 25% higher than it was when the NASDAQ broke over 3900.00 on May 1, 2000. TIBX last traded as high as it did yesterday at 117.00 more than 120 trading days ago. Its current RSI ( a technical indicator for determining if a stock is overbought) is over 70.00. When TIBX found itself this high in April of 2000, it proceeded to drop more than 70% to a 200 day and year low on April 5, 2000, of 32.38.
Since then it went back to 94.75 on May 1, 2000, (NASDAQ 3982.00) Then by May 24, 2000, had dropped back to where it currently should have massive support its current 60 day low of 45.50. I see shares of TIBX current 30 day high of 118.00 and its current 30 day low of interval high of 95.24 as a retrace setting up to shave about 20.00 points off TIBX taking it back down to about 100.00 per share or perhaps back to even 95.24 where it should bounce.
KEY INDICATORS: TIBX (Short)
Sell Short Area: 116.00-115.00 (under 115.00)
Buy Stop: 123.00
1-3 DAY TARGET: 103.00-100.00
3-5 DAY TARGET: 98.00-96.50
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY # 2 Stratos Lightwave, Inc. (NasdaqNM: STLW)
Stratos Lightwave, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells optical
subsystems and components for high data rate networking, data storage and telecommunication applications, converting electronic signals to optical signals and back into electronic signals. For the fiscal year ended 4/30/00, revenue rose 57% to $73.2 million. Net income rose 8% to $3.8 million. Results reflect increased sales of internal removable
transceivers, partially offset by higher research and development costs
Stock Fans, Stratos Lightwave is a recent IPO. It has Earnings! The
timing indicators look solid for a pop. Looking to grab a partial
position after the open.
Key Indicators: STLW
Buy Area:$34.75 to $35.25
TARGET:$38.75 to $40.53
Time Frame: 3 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range not determined,
BONUS PLAY # 3 Zomax, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOMX)
Zomax, Incorporated is an international outsource provider of process management services. The Company's fully integrated services include "front-end" e-commerce support, call center and customer support solutions; DVD authoring services; CD and DVD mastering; CD and DVD replication; supply chain and inventory management; graphic design; print management; assembly; packaging; warehousing; distribution and fulfillment; and RMA processing. By providing a full range of process management services, Zomax differentiates itself from its competitors that offer only a subset of these services.
Stock Fans, Zomax was a stock we did real well with last year. It has pulled back, formed a base and now it is poised to run. Zomax has a PE of 18 and a growth rate of 67%. Earnings are scheduled to be released on July 24. The recent volume and movement say that institutions are buying in anticipation of good numbers.
Key Indicators: ZOMX
Buy Area:$15.875 to $16.25
TARGET:$17.875 to $18.6875
Time Frame: 4 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.25 - $.35 point scalps. Avg. price range $1.27
STOCK TO WATCH TODAY: Phone.com (NASDAQ:PHCM)
PHCM broke out of a nearly month long slump yesterday as it added on more than 5.00 on 30 day average volume increase of over 1.5 million. I like PHCM, in that its a former high flyer and it made a nice bounce yesterday off the 60.00 area. Shares of PHCM could add on much more over the next 3-5 days as this stock was almost 100.00 as recently as June 2, 2000.
PLUS Members look for an email on PHCM if it breaks out higher!
Also I will Watch close:
PCXM, PDYN, MEDX, and CHIR.
All broke higher yesterday on increased volume over their 10 day moving
averages. They all could see more or similar volume today and even if the NASDAQ trades lower add on!
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. GNSL- Big resistance at 30.00. I like a retrace back to 24.25 on this one soon.
2. LEXG - Broke out yesterday. Looking for a follow thru.
3. CMGI- It held 38.25 yesterday. I am looking for 41.00 today Friday's low and close.
4. JDSU- it has massive resistance now at 105.00. I see it trading 104.50 maybe to 96.50. I will go long JDSU under 98.00 today.
5. SDLI- It lost crucial 320.00 into close then got it back I look for 315.00 as today's bail area.
6. MRVC- 70.00 as top yesterday. In a big uptrend. 72.50-73.00 then a retrace
7. NUFO- it missed 100.00 yesterday. I will watch this hot 90 day IPO.
8. YHOO - Earnings on the bell 107.00 to hold it today is crucial
9. BVSN- it lost 40.00 yesterday. I now will be a buyer and add on more under 38.00
10. CEGE- It could see 38.00-39.00 in a bust out
11. WSTL- Nice Alert Call yesterday. 23.00 resistance Looking for more follow through.
12. EBAY- It better hold 44.00
13. DIOD- This Semi Play is way oversold. If it clears 36.00 its gone. Watch for an alert email on this one PLUS members.
14. EMLX- It could bounce back to 60.00 today.
15. EXFO- What a call SAGO 55.00 is support now.
16. MOT- Numbers coming tomorrow 32.00 is crucial to hold.
17. EFNT-Broke out on more volume watch for more.
18. AHWY- Time Warner news took this cheapy to volume of more then 500k. It usually trades under 100k. I will watch close for 4.00
19. WGAT- It broke higher yesterday. I will watch close.
20. NPNT- This one also looks good.
21. DLK- It could see 25-26 if it can get more volume.
22. TGNT- Nice uptrend in motion.
23. NTRO- SAGO bonus play from Friday added on 4.00 yesterday. I will watch for more, as I am sure he is today!
24. VISX - Big volume! It could really go!
25. Last not least! DURA this one is looking like it wants to run!!!
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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