The Play Of The Day
June 30, 2000
08:37 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
(My) Our Stock Jock Turns 30 on Saturday July 1, 2000
My Wife Deb had to include that today,,, ( Hummm!?!?)
Yesterday, the NASDAQ opened right at 3900.00, down ( -40.00). On future rate increase worries in August by the Fed, and more profit warnings in the Tech (QCOM, ERCY) and Internet sectors. On the new it was unable to find positive ground through out the entire session. It came close reaching a high of 3929.00 in the mid afternoon. However the move was met by more selling as the index fell under 3900.00 again and closed at 3877.00 (-63.00)
YESTERDAY'S NASDAQ TRADING RANGES:
Total Range: 3929.00-3838.00 = 91.00
Mid Morning High: 3912.00 ( before noon EST)
Mid Morning Low: 3838.00 (10:22 AM EST)
Yesterday's High: 3929.00 (1:46 PM EST)
Most Common Range: 3912-3883
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Today, could be a very volatile day as both the NYSE, and the NASDAQ do some major repositioning. The likes of Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) will head into the S& P 500 on close. Also, today is the final day of June 2000. It is also the half way point of 2000. With all that in mind the NYSE, as well as the NASDAQ should have plenty of volume today.
Today, I like the NASDAQ to see big volume. I like it to trade in a range of no higher then 3893.00. I see a low on big volume of under 3822.00 today. The NASDAQ could sell off today all the way down to the 3700.00-3695.00 area. The reason I say this is because if it is predicted to have big volume. I see the index as dropping quite a lot, then on Window Dressing of fund mangers. I see it being seen as a value. However it must shake out stubborn investors today to set up the index for those Fund Mangers to come in and buy it up.
The action would seem typical. Take the little guys profits away. Get them to sell as it drops fast on fear. Then come in and steal the shares at a discount!
it makes perfect sense. I will wait and see if it happens. I will go long and strong the NASDAQ under 3700.00 today. And look for 3695.00 the 30 day low to hold. I believe 3822.00-3818.00 level to broken the NASDAQ must open a little higher as it should today (3885.00) then go up a little more miss 3900.00 and then fall. By mid afternoon I like a bounce back up and an uptrend into the close on heavy buying.
Today's Play of The Day is: Advanced Fibre Corp. (NASDAQ:AFCI)
Stock Fans, I know I called AFCI, just a few days ago. I do point out however it has yet to find my Buy Area that I selected on Wednesday of this week when I made the call. However as I looked at the chart further examining its recent ranges and volume. I see AFCI today, if it pulls back a little bit further as an excellent opportunity both in the short term, and long term.
As I stated yesterday, in "Stock On Our Screens" and in an Alert Email. AFCI has a gap up from this past Tuesday of 43.1250-46.43750. The fact that the stock closed inside that gap yesterday in a down market should set it up even better as soon as perhaps today to find fill in that gap with actual trading and then bounce higher.
Looking at the recent volume on AFCI. I see something else that makes AFCI quite inviting. It traded massive volume of over 3 million shares more then 3 times it 30 day average on Tuesday of this week as it fell more then 8.00 off 52.00. The stock then opened higher on Wednesday as broker upgrades calling it an excellent buying opportunity at its depressed state. The news and the value in its price saw it trade over 6 million shares. However (on Wednesday) it wasn't able to break 51.00 and traded sideways for most of the day at 47.00-48.00. Then yesterday it opened down with the rest of the NASDAQ, and then into the close traded as low as 44.56
(- 3.93750) on volume very similar to Tuesday's of this week (3 million) when it dropped over 8.00.
This type of trading action very often shows that AFCI was upgraded to take it higher, to then shake out chasing, or momentum investors to set it up to drop lower where the bigger volume investors, and perhaps even the upgrading brokers can go back into it for the longer term. Whenever I can find a stock that drops on big volume then trades sideways the next day on 2 times that volume or more, and then if its fortunate enough to drop back the next day on less volume, its more often then not an extremely strong buying signal. The fact that 52.00 was the high on Tuesday and 51.00 the high on Wednesday also has a definite pattern in that 42.1250 was the low on Tuesday and today if it comes within 1.00 of the week low at 43.1250 it fills in its trading gap, and that also is 9 times out of 10 an excellent buying sign.
With all this to back up a predicted upcoming move down of about 1.3750 more today to back up AFCI. I can't help but call this one as my main play today. It has to much going for it in to many areas. I like this stock to drop back fill in its gap and then possibly make a run at 52.00 into next week. It is ahead of the NASDAQ in its pulling back so its entirely possible for AFCI to trade higher in a down market. The massive volume on it the last 3 days also shows it has plenty of interest under 50.00.
KEY INDICATORS: AFCI
Buy Area: 43.1250-43.43750
Sell Stop: 41.00
1 DAY TARGET: 45.00-46.50
2-5 DAY TARGET: 51.00-52.50
Type of Trade: daytrade/swing trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: AFCI CALLS
I like the July 55.00 CALLS. They have over 2000 open interest, and traded over 900 on Tuesday when AFCI hopefully bottomed out! I will buy 5 if and when AFCI drops under 43.50.
Last Ask: 2.8750
BONUS PLAY #1 Packateer (NASDAQ:PKTR)
Packeteer (Nasdaq:PKTR) is a leading provider of Internet application infrastructure systems designed to enable businesses and service providers to ensure the quality of experience for networked applications and application services. Packeteer's advanced PacketWise(TM) software, the foundation of the company's innovative PacketShaper and AppVantage(TM) systems, integrates application discovery, analysis, control and reporting technologies that are required for enhanced application-performance and proactive bandwidth management.
The reason I like PKTR, is quite simple. I believe its an overlooked Internet infrastructure play. It also has been in a nice uptrend of late, and yesterday traded more then 2 times its average daily volume and went up in a down market. As the NASDAQ fell into the close it surged.
The stock could bounce off 30.00 today and then run higher. I like PKTR in that its business plan is solid, and as the Internet grows its applications should be more sought after. The stock is one I will look to hold long term at 30.00. I also will play half my shares for the shorter term in a range I hope 30-35.00 today.
KEY INDICATORS: PKTR
Buy Area: 30.50-30.8750
Sell Stop: 29.00
1- 2 DAY TARGET: 34.00-35.00
10-30 DAY TARGET: 41.00-42.00
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY #2 InfoSpace (NASDAQ:INSP)
InfoSpace is a leading global Internet information infrastructure services company. InfoSpace provides commerce, information and communication infrastructure services to wireless devices, merchants and Web sites. The Company's affiliates include a network of wireless and other non-PC devices including PCs, cellular phones, pagers, screen telephones, television set-top boxes, online kiosks, and personal digital assistants. These include relationships with Intel, Ericsson, Nokia, Mitsui and Acer America. InfoSpace's affiliate network also consists of more 3,000 Web sites that include AOL, Microsoft, Disney's GO Network, NBC's Snap, Lycos, go2net Inc., DoubleClick, Dow Jones (The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition) and ABC LocalNet, among others.
Stock Fans, InfoSpace (NASDAQ:INSP) was featured on CNBC just this week. It has many things going for it as its rather cocky CEO stated in a CNBC interview this past week. He believes that INSP will be bigger then any other company in the near future ( 5 years he says) as he believes the Internet will be more of a Yellow Page directory. Since his company is the leadership in yellow pages. Its worth noting that if he's right or even remotely right then INSP is a value play of mammoth proportions as it is over 60% off its March 2000 highs.
The stock traded in March 2000 in excessive of 300.00. Then it split 2 for 1, and in the subsequent NASDAQ selloff of April, and May was crushed to under 40.00. It has since broke 60.00 and just missed 70.00. The stock has had plenty of action, and like EBAY. I see it as a great stock to not only play in the short term off support and shaken out levels, but also in the longer term. A November December 2000 hold.
It reported fantastic numbers in April 2000. It is adding to its business, and if its CEO has his way its going be big down what could be a short road. One things for certain. It been to the clouds and back. Its still closer to back then the clouds, but it hasn't been left for the dead. I like the play a lot as its ahead of the NASDAQ drop in its trading, it should hold 50.00 any day of the week and should trade over 60.00 in the next 10 days.
KEY INDICATORS: INSP
Buy Area: 54.50-53.43750
Sell Stop: 50.00
1- 3 DAY TARGET: 58.43750-59.00
3-10 DAY TARGET: 62.50-64.00
6 MONTH TARGET: 150.00-165.00
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
Sago is sunning himself in Florida! ( I hope it rains) LOL (Laugh out Loud) Have fun Sago!
He derserves a break!
He Will check in next week with more great stock plays!
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. INTM - Something may be brewing on it. I look for more upside and more volume today. Shockwave could announce its IPO date soon.
2. MACR - Shockwave is majority owned by it. Its solid anyway. My stock of 2000 should hold 92.00 today and may move to 105.00. It could explode if Shockwave date is announced both INTM and MACR surged into close.
3. ICCI - up on added volume in a down market.
4. ADAT- It reported numbers yesterday. Seconds ahead of the close nd had buyers. I watch it for a possible breakout today.
5. LEXG- If it can hold 32.8750 I will buy back in. If it loses 32.00 I short it back to 28.00.
6. GNSL- It has a target of 22.00. 3 brokers upgraded it yesterday. If it can break 13.00 it could fly. Its volatile in the ranges from 12.00-12.8750
7. RIMM- it broke even on new product watch volume it should tell the tale.
8. ENER- This Fuel Cell stock is keeping my attention.
9. EBAY- it bounced off 48.56 yesterday, under 50 I add and sell stop 44.00. I still say 90.00 plus by 11/00
10. PCLN - It got hit hard yesterday on airlines selling tickets as it does. It does however have more business's then just that. I like a 3 point bounce back today
11. AMZN- I like a test of 32.00 and a close of 34.00
12. NTAP- Its oversold in the short term it should bounce 2-5 today.
13. ZIGO- This one could see 90.00 today. If it can't hold 84.00 then profits to 76.00
14. MRVC- Solid if it holds 63.00. If it does then look for 70.00 if not back to under 60.00
15. GZMO- Yesterday's new fizzled. It should hold 14.00 today
16. GENU - at 8.00 or under its worth a shot.
17. VRSN - I like it to have profit taking today.
18. BIOI - if it can break 22.6250. I go in
19. EFCX -This fuel cell continues to hold well.
20. RFMD- I like it to hold 81.00 again today under 83.00 I buy in.
21. QCOM- If it can hold 60.00 I buy it if not I wait for 57.6250
22. QQQ- It is bet to go lower taking NASDAQ down. I like it to lose 89.00 today.
23. JDSU- It should have support at 114.50. I like a bounce back to 118.00 at its highs. If the NASDAQ loses 3800.00 It may not see buyers till 112.00
24. COMS - I like it to drop back under 50.00 today as profits are taken.
25. RMBS- I go in under 94.00 and hold till it loses 90.00. I like a bounce back to 98-100 if it can hold 90.00 today. Its volitile.
26. ATML- 35.00 is suport 40.00 might be top side today.
27. EMLX- I am in long and strong at 62.6250 and 61.50 today. I will use 57.00 as a sell stop.
28. I will wait for under 39.00. Sometimes its a waiting game!
The Big 5 Techs:
1. CSCO- I like it to lose 60.50 and go no higher then 62.50
2. MSFT- 79.50 top today. it could test 75.1250 today. 82.50 massive resistance 72.50 solid support in the 15 day range.
3. ORCL - I like it to test 78.08 today. If it can't hold it I am a buyer under 77.00. 76.00 is solid support. I don't see it breaking 83.50 today.
4. INTC - It should have profit taking today and lose 3-5 at its lows.
5. DELL - The MSFT tracking stock should trade in 3 point range. I will watch it today.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
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