The Play Of The Day
June 29, 2000
08:39 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Yesterday, the NASDAQ got what it was looking for from the Fed's FOMC meeting. The Fed decided that the economy had slowed enough to leave interest rates alone, at least until August 2000, the next time the Fed reconvenes. On that news, the NASDAQ rallied over 100.00 points at its high of 3974.00. However, the gains didn't hold up into the close as many investors decided to sell on the news, and cash in on what were huge gains since the 5/24/00 lows of 3042.00 on the NASDAQ. The late day action sent the NASDAQ composite down more than 50.00 (3922.00) at its lows following the Fed's decision. Still, on the that late day selling, the NASDAQ was able to hold the crucial 3900.00 level closing up 80.00 plus at 3940.00 (up 2.11%)
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
At 6:30 am EST time today it appears from the reading of the NASDAQ futures that yesterday the NAZ may have been saved by the bell. The NASDAQ futures at this hour are down more than 50.00 (55.45). Yesterday, June 27, 2000 the selling took place just 100.00 points off the NASDAQ 60 day high, and 10 day high of 4073.00, as investors truly did cash in big profits seen on the NASDAQ'S more than 1,000 point gains since 5/24/00.
Stock Fans, into the close yesterday, the NASDAQ looked as though it were shorted on the Fed's decision sending it up more than 50.00. It
then dropped to 3922.00 before it went to its high yesterday of 3974.00. Just when it looked like 4000.00 was seconds away. It once again dropped rather quickly back down to 3925.00. That low was meant by a few late day buys causing it to close right about where it was when the Fed news hit at 3940.00
This kind of action yesterday may very well suggest the NASDAQ is again in a selling mode. The volatile moves up and down could very well have been investors selling on the news, then NASDAQ Market Makers looked to have shorted the sellers and that in turn caused the index to shoot up fast hitting 3974.00. Then, when the buyers dissipated at just under 4000.00, the index then dropped extremely fast as supply outweighed demand causing the abrupt fall back to 3922.00.
It would then appear, based on the above information, that the NASDAQ could have indeed been saved by the bell. Therefore, the NASDAQ could open under 3900.00 today and set up yet another test of what has been its average trading low over the past 3 days--3883.00. The fact that the NASDAQ was unable to hit its 5/01/00 and 6/14/00 high of 3982.00 yesterday falling just 8.00 points under it may very well turn out to prove a lot. The other notable factor in my mind is the fact that such stock like JDSU,INTC, EBAY, and YHOO all exploded and saw day highs just 10 minutes ahead of the close, then lost all of those gains, and in JDSU's case, it went from 122.50 - 125.00 and then fell even lower than it had been ahead of the Fed's call. In the afternoon and towards the close it went to 121.50 before it closed over 123.00 on last second buyers, or shorters!
Today, I look for the NASDAQ to hold 3822.00 but to trade no higher than 3922.00. This 100 point range should be battled throughout the day as I see NASDAQ Market Makers using Momentum Traders to take the index up to set it up to fall. It would seem now that a Fibonacci retrace of at least 30% is ahead in the NASDAQ's 5 day trading future. I will look to buy into the NASDAQ as it becomes oversold in the short term on the minute charts and then sell out when it hits the top of the minute charts cycles. Also, I will look for more volume taking stocks down on the composite today and less taking it up. The entire action should set up the NASDAQ to test what is now its 30 day low of 3695.00 in the next 5 trading days. I will the reassess the situation if and when it retraces to that point.
Today's Play of The Day is: Aware ( NASDAQ:AWRE)
Yesterday AWRE, on no particular news that I was aware of, experience three times the normal volume, and traded up more than 6.00--Its volume trading in excess of 1 million shares. It looks like today it will lose 50.00 perhaps even on the open (opening under it ). However, it should have buyers at the 48.50-47.50 range. I like it to hold this area. I will use a sell stop of 45.25 as it has solid support at this level. It would seem that AWRE may have impending news to go up like it did yesterday. With the action yesterday, this stock could set up a shake out today losing 50.00 and then as it holds 45.00, it could run back up to its 30 day high of 55.00. It seems to have less RISK, and more REWARD getting in this stock under 50.00. That could very well be the place investors want to lock in profits and then it could bounce nicely back up and perhaps over next 5 days even go higher to
KEY INDICATORS: AWRE ( LONG)
Buy Area: 47.3750-48.6250
Sell Stop: 45.00
2 DAY TARGET: 52.00
3-10 DAY TARGET: 53.50-55.00
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: AWRE CALLS
I like the AWRE July 50.00's when, and if AWRE loses 48.00 today.
BONUS PLAY #2: Cypress Semi Conductor:
Stock Fans, this Semiconductor Stock is very close to its 200 day moving average of 38.25. It traded big volume yesterday, over 6 million shares as it sold down to under 40.00. It then bounced up with the market as it saw 41.00. I like this stock to bounce off 38.00 - 38.50 and hold. It hasn't traded under its 200 day moving average in over 2 years. It also has bounced nicely off it the last 3 times it has been at current levels. This stock, even though a NYSE issue, is still a Tech Stock. If it follows recent history it should have plenty of buyers wanting in under 39.00 for a move back to 45.00.
* Yes Maria is saying that Analysts have come out and made positive comments on CNBC today. CY on the NYSE should still test the under 39.00-38.50 level. Those brokers may be using the public to send the stock up to drop it back to under 40.00 so they can get in it for the long haul. I will wait for CY to drop under 39.00. If it doesn't happen, I am not a buyer till it clears yesterdays high by 2.00 reaching 45.00. I will then use a sell stop of 40.00 on it and again wait for under 39.00 a spot where it seems destined to go.
*** CY was sent as a PLUS ALERT email yesterday. I will sell CY on open today and look for that pull back!
KEY INDICATORS: (CY)
Buy Area: Under 39
Sell Stop: 36
Time Frame: 4-5 Days
Type of Trade: Swing
BONUS PLAY #3 "KEY SHORT!"
Oracle Corp (NASDAQ:ORCL)
ORCL looked to me yesterday, as it traded over 84.50, to be going higher to set up a 10 day low test of 78.08. ORCL should open today under 82.00 then have investors looking to lock in profits. I like the stock over the next 3 days (if not today) to lose 80.50 its key support then fall back and test 78.08. I will short this one today over 82.50 and use a BUY STOP of 85.3750 and look for a drop to 78.50 in next 3 days.
KEY INDICATORS: ORCL (SHORT)
Sell Short Area: 82.50-82.93750
Buy Stop Area: 85.50
Time Frame: 3 days
Type of Trade: swing trade
* LONG ORCL at 76.50. If it goes there over next 3 days and NASDAQ holds 3822.00 ORCL will be oversold. I will go in here and look for a bounce as 76.00 has been solid 15 day support for ORCL.
"RUN THE OPTIONS!" ORCL CALLS
I like the July 75.00 PUTS as ORCL trades over 82.50 today
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY'S:
BONUS PLAY # 1 Trimble Navigation Limited (NasdaqNM: TRMB)
Trimble Navigation Limited develops, markets, and distributes innovative products and systems enabled by Global Positioning System (GPS)technology. Trimble designs and markets electronic products that determine precise geographic location. The Company provides end-user and original equipment manufacturer solutions for diverse applications including Architecture/Engineering/Construction, Asset Management and Tracking,Agriculture, and GPS Component Technologies. The Company's principal products, which utilize proprietary software and firmware, are integrated systems for collecting, analyzing and displaying position data in forms optimized for specific end-user applications. The Company sells its products through a direct-sales force located in 15 countries, as well as through a worldwide network of dealers, distributors and authorized representatives.
Stock Fans, the Electrical Measuring Instruments is moving up in the
group ratings. Trimble Navigation has a Relative Strength of 98 and a EPS rate of 76. They sport a PE of 50. As I have been saying, new leaders will emerge to lead the pack. Trimble's timing indicator look solid for the breakout.
Key Indicators: TRMB
Buy Area:$49.75 to $50.50
TARGET:$55.55 to $58.075
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $3.05
BONUS PLAY # 2 Tekelec, Inc (NasdaqNM: TKLC)
TEKELEC designs, manufactures, markets and supports network systems products, diagnostics systems and selected service applications for telecommunications networks and call centers. The Company's network systems products help direct and control voice and data communications. The Company's diagnostics products simulate a controlled network environment, which allows carriers and communications equipment manufacturers to test products to ensure that products conform to specifications and to evaluate network performance without risking the failure of the existing network. Some of the Company diagnostics products also allow the monitoring, diagnosis and surveillance of network elements while the network is in operation. The Company's call center products provide workforce management and intelligent call routing systems for single and multiple site call centers.
Stock Fans, here is another one that is bucking the trend. Closed at its highs when the market was selling off. Tekelec has a relative strength of 96 and an EPS rate of 96. It sports a growth rate of 63% and a PE of 96. Institutions are accumulating it and volume is 3 1/2 times above its average. Looking to catch the breakout on this runner. PLEASE NOTE: I TOOK A POSITION IN THIS FOR A GAP PLAY.
Key Indicators: TKLC
Buy Area:$47.50 to $48.25
TARGET:$53.08 to $55.50
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $2.58
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. EBAY- It has held 50.00 over 20 times in 10 days. I hope it continues to hold and gets back on track. If it loses 50.00 I go in long at 48.8750. 44.00 stop.
2. AFCI- It has a gap to fill at 43.1250. It should hold there. I will look to add to it today at under 44.00
3. LEXG- What a winner PLUS Members! This one should retrace to 33.50
today and then might see 38.00.
4. JDSU- It looks like 125.00 is max on this one. 124.00 today maybe. It should lose 118.50 today at its lows. I go long under 116.00.
5. YHOO- I will look for a 3 day low test of 117.8750 and go long for a
6. EFCX- This one continues to impress. 20.00 might be days away.
7. MRVC- It should hold 60.00
8. NTAP- Looking for a retrace of 5.50 then a nice bounce back up 3.00
9. EMLX- It should hold 62.00 today and bounce back to 67.00
10. ISLD- Fredenrich joins the company. Says he brings years of
experience. 48.00 maybe at its highs today.
11. RBAK- Its run up huge it should drop 15.00 in next 2 days.
12. AETH- It saw 200.00 It should drop back to under 175.00 soon
13. RFMD- 81.00 solid support. It loses 81.00 I go in under 80 and hold
for a bounce sell stop leave more room 75.00.
14. PSFT- It may get a bounce today.
15. QCOM- Today it should lose 60.00 but hold 57.00
16. NVLS- Looking for a bounce off 55.00
17. INSP- Quality buy under 54.75 long look for move back to 61.00
18. AMZN - Back to 32.50 today
19. DVNT- It held up well yesterday. It could add on more.
20. GNET- Oversold should bounce
21. MMXI- Disappointed me yesterday. I am sure I am not alone 20.50 looks solid. I am looking for it to bounce back
22. PAIR- is now a part of ADTC (stock will be moved into there)
23. BRCD- A great stock but sets up as a short now as it should have
24. GENE- If it doesn't hold 30.00 I will short it to 25.00.
25. CRA- It added on 12.00 plus yesterday. I like a test of 102.00 today to bounce back to 110.00
26. RMBS- It should lose 100 and bounce at 98.50-99.00 LONG for a move
back to 104.00
27. PWAV - Looks good to hold 43.00
Have a great day!
More to come.........
and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!
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