The Play Of The Day
June 26, 2000
08:37 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
On Friday, June 23, 2000 the profit taking continued for the 3rd straight day due to continued worries that the FED still may raise interest rates when it meets this Wednesday, June 29, 2000. On Friday, the NASDAQ never was able to surpass the 4000.00 marker as it fell another 106.00 points into the close and hit a 5 day low of 3830.00 before it was able to bounce 15 points back in the final 5 minutes to close at 3845.00 (down 98.00).
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Stock Fans, with the FED meeting just 2 days away it would appear that the huge surplus of money that has built up over the last 60 trading days will stay on the sidelines for at least 3 more days until the Fed's rate decision on this Wednesday, June 29, 2000 comes.
Over the last 30 days, the NASDAQ has enjoyed a move equaling 228 points even after the previous 3 days of profit taking which was still an increase of 803.00 points up from the May 24, 2000, 200 day low and 30 day low of 3042.00.
As this trader has said over and over during the past 2 weeksremember on May 16, 2000, the day of the last FED meeting that the NASDAQ traded as high 3729.00 on the presumption that the increase in May 2000 would be 50% increase and there wouldnt be any further rate hikes. However, this was not the case as .50 was the May increase and then following that increase, the FED said it would continue to raise rates as early as June 29, 2000 by possibly another 25% just to make sure inflation doesn't lead to a recession allowing the FED to engineer a "soft landing." The NASDAQ was unprepared for that added news of
more rate upcoming rate hikes and over the next 3 days it fell from 3729.00 to as low as 3367.00-- a pull back equaling 362 points before it was able to bounce higher over 3400.00. I like the NASDAQ to have few buyers and more investors locking in profits of the still more than a 25% increase off the 200 day low of 3042.00. Over the next 2 days this should cause the NASDAQ to pull back another 200.00 or so points dropping to about 3645.00 as it over corrects for the upcoming FED decision. I see the NASDAQ, at its worst levels, trading no lower than 3553.00 ahead of the FED this Wednesday and I will look to buy in long under 3695.00, which is the old NASDAQ 200 day moving average when the FED last increased rates on May 16, 2000.
Today, I look for the NASDAQ to open higher as the NASDAQ futures ( + 57) currently indicate. I see the NASDAQ trading no higher than 4007.00 ( up no more than 59.00 points at its highs.) The increase off the open, and into the noon hour in NYC should be a big enough up move to set up the NASDAQ giving it momentum when it down turns on no buyers ahead of the FED meeting and then breaks through massive support of 3818.00. The NASDAQ should then continue its trend over the last 3 trading sessions as it most likely succumbs to more profit taking. I see the NASDAQ today trading in a rather tight range for the most part of 27 points down (3818.00) to 27 points up (3872.00) until it uses the momentum traders and their buying on the upswings to set it up to find its predicted high of 4007.00 today.
As the NASDAQ goes into its final 60 minutes of trading today I like it
to drop under 3800.00 and go as low as 3775.00 (down 70.00) before it
bounces back up in the final 10 minutes of trading to close just under
3800.00 at 3796.00.
Therefore, I will look to cover my shorts as the NASDAQ should fall back about 25-30 points following the first 30 minutes of trading back near the unchanged level. I will then go long as I see the NASDAQ trading higher into the NYC noon hour. Then, I will sell out my long play and go short into the final 90 minutes as I will look for the NASDAQ to drop on more profit taking.
Today's Play of The Day is: Ebay: (NASDAQ:EBAY) (LONG)
Stock Fans, I know I have called EBAY often of late. However, this stock has a history of selling off this time of year after it has reported outstanding earnings. It did that again this year as it has dropped off a posted earnings high of 81.00 to 50.00 reaching it this last Friday. EBAY is just too good to be ignored. It should have even less competition this November 2000 as the AMZN auction status may suffer as its stock has already suffered. EBAY is the premiere "online flea market" and with Christmas mass 2000 right around the corner EBAY should again prevail. I like this stock to be trading in excess of 90.00 a shares and over 100.00 by November 2000. I see now as the time to stuff this one in a Christmas stocking and hold on for the long run as EBAY should have a stellar final 3 months of the year.
Again, I know I have called this one often, but it is just too good to pass up. Its a stock that's down 50% since April 2000. AMZN's demise should be its gain as it is perhaps the best call I see in the Internet space.
* Short Term traders. EBAY is also a great 10 day hold as it seems to
test both its 10 day high and 10 day low almost like clockwork.
Again Stock Fans, we may not see my buy target hit on EBAY today, but it should re test 50.00 -48.1250 over the next 10 days. I promise not to use EBAY as a play after today. I, however, will update this one in the "Stocks On Our Screens Section" daily. I wanted to make sure I had this one on the board for today as its low-priced and it could test 50.00 - 48.1250 as early as today.
KEY INDICATORS: EBAY
Buy Area: 48.1250-50.3750
Sell Stop: 44.00
DEC 2000 TARGET: 90.00-104.00
10 DAY TARGET: 59.00-61.00
RUN THE OPTIONS: EBAY CALLS
The EBAY December 2000 80.00 CALLS.
BONUS PLAY SJ: Purchase Pro (NASDAQ:PPRO)
Stock Fans, this former high flying B2B Stock has come back from the dead of late as it has had both renewed interest as well as new interest. The stock was over the 200.00 price point as recently as this past Feb 2000. It went as low as 18.00 on May 24, 2000 when the NASDAQ hit 3042.00--a 200 day and Y2K low. Since then, it has more than doubled as it has traded as high as 44.6250 (this past Friday's high, June 23, 2000). Then, the NASDAQ dropped and sold off, going as low as 40.38750 (its previous 60 day resistance to hold on close).
With shares of PPRO holding 40.00 plus even with the NASDAQ dropping
back some 100 plus into the close on Friday PPRO still has broken through what was previously upside resistance. The stock should now continue to surge higher as the NASDAQ should move higher at least until the noon hour today. I like shares of PPRO to make a move over Fridays high and challenge the 48.00-49.00 area. The chart says this one can bust up to as high as 62.00 if it gets 3 times its normal volume of just over 1.5 million shares.
PPRO looks to be a great call today right off the open as it should surge back up at least 7.00 today to the 47.00 area.
KEY INDICATORS: PPRO (LONG)
Buy Area: 40.8750-41.5
Sell Stop: 38.25
Time Frame: 1-2 days
Type of Trade: daytrade/overnight position trade
selling half today at over 44.00
BONUS SJ2 Emulex (NASDAQ:EMLX) (LONG)
Stock Fans, I shorted this stock at 67.00 as you "Play of The Day!" PLUS members know from an email alert on Friday, June 23, 2000 at 67.00. It turned out to be a great call as it hit its first target of 62.00. I saw this one Friday as it looked to maybe test 60.00 and it may still do that. However, it looks to have big volume and plenty of interest at 62.00 as it should hold this level and today again find 66.00 (with NASDAQ 100 points or so lower EMLX should then stay 2 points under Friday's high of 68.00). It should be a great play
at just over 62.00 today, and then hold for 66.00 until I short the stock again to test 60.00- 58.00 as I see the NASDAQ falling back more into the close.
KEY INDICATORS: EMLX ( LONG)
Buy Area: 62.1250-62.50
Sell Stop: 58.50
TARGET: 65.43750- 66.00
Time Frame: Today
KEY INDICATORS: (EMLX SHORT)
Sell Short: 65.50-66.75
Buy Stop: 69.00
Time Frame: Today
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. EFCX- This stock had news of being close to having a battery that will run on palm pilots after the battery goes dead. It could stay hot today and find 26.00
2. ENER- In the same sector as PLUG; it may move higher today
3. AMZN- It could bounce back today to 38.00--no higher
4. PLUG- It should make a move to 58-59 today. 50 support
6. JDSU- It should have a high of 126 and a low of 118.50 today
8. CRA- 116.00 the top under 100 by the close
9. CMRC- It should bounce back up 2.50 today into noon hour
10. EFNT - It should fall 2 more then I cover
11. NEWP- This stock has been red hot it may see 100 today!
12. SDLI- I like 265.00-260.00 on close
13. FIBR- It should fall 5 today
14. IFCI - Been hot it may make 28.00 today
16. CYPH - It was hot last Friday--look for more upside
17. CYTO- It may move as it tends to follow CYPH moves
18. BGEN- It looks like it may bounce back then go lower
19. PWAV- Stole this one as 41.00; should be its low as it may make 50 in next 5 days
20. WEBT- Still waiting for my buy area of under 35.00
21. ATML- It should hold 41 and see 45 today
22. AMGN- might be oversold and good for a rally up 4
23. GENE- It took a hit Friday look for a bounce back then lower
24. SQSW-News sent it up in what turned out to be a down market. It may add on more today
25. AFCI- Hot Sector! Look for a move 2 higher
26. ACCL- This IPO was hot I like 60.00 today
27. PUMA- this Sago play just didn't have right market to get going
Friday looks solid today to hold 30.00 and maybe end higher.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
Stock Jock! and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!
The Stockjock and BigPlayStocks.com, Inc. are financial information publishers. Information on the www.bigplaystocks.com web site should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Financial information published on the www.bigplaystocks.com is intended to be an adjunct to your investment research, not a substitute thereof. The Stockjock and BigPlayStocks.com, Inc. strive to publish accurate and complete financial data, but are not liable for the accuracy of the opinions and research posted on the www.BigPlayStocks.com web site.