The Play Of The Day
June 23, 2000
08:37 AM EST.
Good Stock Fans!
Attention Stock Fans! Be sure to SEE THE BOTTOM SECTION of Today's Play's So You Don't Miss What's Coming In July 2000!
NASDAQ RECAP June 22, 2000
Yesterday, the NASDAQ had profit taking after nearly a month of increases. Before yesterday, June 22, 2000, the index had 5 straight sessions of increases. The NASDAQ opened yesterday at 4063.00 and closed at its low of the day down more than 125.00 points as it closed on its lows at 3639.00 losing 4,000 and 4039.00 as it fell back under and into technically, a bear market after breaking out of it for one day as its previous close was 4063.00.
NASDAQ OUTLOOK: June 23, 2000
The NASDAQ may have more of the same today, as profit taking might very well be the theme. Yesterday, as the NASDAQ sold off it blew right through a KEY NUMBER in its trading range--3982.00 This number was the previous 30 day high May 1, 2000, when the NASDAQ fell to its year 2000, and 200 day low. The added 3982-4073 = 91.00 This 91 point range is the area the NASDAQ broke just 5 days ago. The 15 day range now on the NASDAQ is 3695.00 for the low and 4073.00 for the high. With the NASDAQ falling yesterday to 137.00 points off its 120 day and 5 day high of 4073.00, the index could now test the current 5 day low of 3818.00-3522.00 where it has had solid support in a very narrow 10 day trading range.
The KEY NUMBERS to watch on the NASDAQ today are:
Top line Resistance is 4007.00 if the index breaks this it could rally to 4100.00. This number, 4007.00 was the mid morning low on the NASDAQ. It held all day as the NASDAQ went as high as 4030.00 off this area. It then lost 4007.00 and fell 25 more points through.
The second KEY NUMBER is 3982.00 which I previously mentioned.
Yet another KEY NUMBER is the 5 day low on the NASDAQ 3822-3818 which was hit on Wednesday of this week on ORCL worries before the NASDAQ rallied to a new high of 4073.00
If the NASDAQ loses 3822.00, then 3790 and then 3695.00 should come soon as the NASDAQ'S current 15 day low.
What I look for today is for the index to trade from 3955-3996 ( under 4000) in morning trading. I then like the NASDAQ to lose 3982.00 and as the day winds down with no buyers on a Friday and ahead of the FEDs meeting I see the NASDAQ as testing 3822.00--possibly today as it loses 100 more by days end. If the DOW loses its current 10,300 area and falls under 10,000 the NASDAQ should fall thru 3800.00 today.
If this happens, then support is at the 15 day low of 3695.00. I will look for a bounce there into Monday before I reaccess the NASDAQ ranges on Monday Morning. That in mind, I will look to play the ranges today and look for those key numbers as they are hit or broken either up or down to determine how I play today's ranges one way or the other.
Today's Play of The Day is: Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ:ATML)
Founded in 1984, Atmel Corporation (NASDAQ:ATML)has headquarters in San Jose, California with manufacturing facilities in Colorado Springs, Colorado; Irving, Texas; Grenoble, Nantes and Rousset, France and Heilbronn, Germany. Atmel designs, manufactures and markets advanced logic, mixed-signal, non-volatile memory, and RF semiconductors. Atmel is also a leading provider of system level integration semiconductor solutions using advanced CMOS, BiCMOS, Bipolar and SiGe process technologies.
This stock lost over 4.00 yesterday as it was hit perhaps a little too hard in the NASDAQ's 120 plus profit taking session yesterday. I like it for a few reasons. Number one, it has traded over the last 30 days in excess of 12 million shares per day, and averages over 5 million daily. I also like it as it might be oversold in its current 5 day trading range. The final 2 reasons why its sets up nicely today are that 1) it has massive support at 41.75-42.00 where it has a quadruple bottom in its trading range currently; and 2) It is in the same type industry as RMBS and it may get a boost today trading higher off of that stock.
KEY INDICATORS: ATML
Buy Area: 41.8750-42.25
Sell Stop: 40.50
Time Frame: 3-5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade in the 3-5 day range.
BONUS PLAY #SJ2 Powerwave Technologies: (NASDAQ:PWAV) LONG
Powerwave Technologies, an ISO 9001 quality certified company, is a leading supplier of high performance RF power amplifiers for use in wireless communications networks. Powerwave designs, manufacturers and markets both single carrier and multi-carrier RF power amplifiers. Powerwave's products are utilized in both cellular and PCS base stations in both digital and analog networks. Powerwave also produces RF power amplifiers for the wireless local loop market.
PWAV has been hit hard of late. It looks to drop a little more today and then bounce off the 41.00 area. It should hold here as the 30 day range has this 2 times as the low--once on May 24, 2000 at NASDAQ 3042.00 and once on 6/19/00. It should drop back and test the 41 area on a predicted NASDAQ sell off today PWAV and bounce back close to its EMA 20 day moving average of 54.00. This stock has a wider sell stop because it is so volatile.
KEY INDICATORS: PWAV LONG
Buy Area: 41.00-42.93750
Sell Stop: 36.75
Time Frame: 2-5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: ATML July CALLS
The 45.00 July Calls when ATML drops under predicted 42.00
*BONUS PLAY #SJ Webtrends (NASDAQ:WEBT) LONG
Stock Fans! This stock has been real good to me. I have only lost on this stock (always long; never short) once out of ten plays I played it as a 5 day swing trade. WEBT is an up and coming B2B stock as well as one that makes money and is in the web statistics and software sector.
WEBT, like many stocks on the NASDAQ has had a nice run off May 24th lows of under 25.00 to get back over 40.00 last week. However, WEBT unlike many stocks came much closer to its 15 day low yesterday in a 120 point plus NASDAQ profit taking session then many other NASDAQ stocks did.
It did this on less than its 30 day average volume, and it traded only 332,000 under its 414,000 current 30 day daily average volume by over 100,000 shares, as it dropped from a high of almost 4.00. (Stocks going
down on less volume is generally bullish. Stocks going down on less volume by more then 5% is even more bullish). This drop was from a high of 39.6250 to a low of 35.75.
This stock looks like it should bounce about 1.00 or so over its current 15 day low.
KEY INDICATORS: WEBT LONG
Predicted into Close Today:
Buy Area: 33.50-34.8750
Sell Stop: 32.1250
1-3 DAY TARGET: 37.5037.8750
6 MONTH TARGET:78.00- 84.00
(*SJ has 400 shares of WEBT in long term portfolio as of 6/22/00 close.)
PRO TRADER SAGO'S BONUS PLAY TODAY:
BONUS PLAY #1 Puma Technology, Inc (NasdaqNM: PUMA)
Puma Technology, Inc. (Puma) develops, markets and supports mobile device management and synchronization software that enables consumers, mobile professionals and information technology officers to harness the full capabilities of handheld computers, smart phones and other wireless personal communications platforms. The Company's software is designed to improve the productivity of business professionals and corporations, which are increasingly relying on mobile computing devices to address growing needs for accessible, up-to-date information in or out of the office. Puma's products include Intellisync Anywhere, Satellite Forms, Intellisync for Notebooks, Intellisync for PDA product family, Intellisync Gold,TranXit, TranXit Pro, TranXit Pro Connectivity Kit, TranXit for DOS, and IntelliLink.
Stock Fans, we played this one for nice gains earlier in the month. It hit our upper target and has now been consolidating those gains. The chart has a cup and handle formation. The handle looked as though it was going to bust loose yesterday. But as we know the Naz was determined, not to cooperate. Puma has no debt and the sales projections look quite rosy. Management owns 23%. Puma has a relative strength rating of 99 and and accumulation rating of A. Stochastics looks to turn up for the next leg up. Volume was 2 times that of its 65 day average. Two ways to play this. One, buy 1/2 shares in a $.25 +/- range of the close or two, wait for a dip. Regardless, this looks to have solid support in the $30.00 range. Puma is 67% off of its 52 week high.
KEY INDICATORS: PUMA
Buy Area: $32.00 to $33.00
TARGET: $36.30 to $37.95
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $ .75 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $3.13
Today's SHORT PLAY: EFNT (NASDAQ:EFNT)
It had some news yesterday that enabled it to hold even as the NASDAQ dropped. It should sell off in the next few days as that news fades. It also has a gap to fill in at 53.25. It should begin selling off today and drop near that level. I may go long on EFNT if it goes under 53.50.
KEY INDICATORS: EFNT SHORT:
Sell Short: 58.25-57.1250
Buy Stop: 62.1250
Time Frame: 1-3 days
Type of Trade: daytrade/swing trade
TODAY'S OPTIONS PLAY: Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) August 2000 70.00 PUTS
Stock Fans, The news hit me as I was able to view a CNBC screen at about 4:30 PM EST yesterday! WOW! RMBS 140 plus in after hours! I had no idea what the news was. I figured however on RMBS run up since 4 for 1 Split last Friday it was another SHORT SQUEEZE!
I learned late last night when I got home that RMBS said in a press release upon the close of the market that Hitachi Ltd. has agreed to pay licensing fees for its patented computer memory chip designs, ending a legal dispute and sending RMBS shares up 50%.
Stock Fans, The percentage play last Friday was to SHORT RMBS on the 4 for 1 split as liquidity increased 4 for 1, and that investors holding short also increased supply. It also had a run as many stocks do ahead of the split, and was due for a pull back. However, that didn't happen and RMBS exploded off a 4 for 1 split--52.00 to go to 86.75 last Friday on a Short Squeeze! And going over 100.00 this week until the news hit yesterday, sending it up as high as 147.00 in after hours before it ended trading at 17:11 EST at 133.43750
Does this whole scenario does sound familiar? Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) experienced similar circumstances (although a different sector) in late 1999 that sent its shares on to split to 690.00. Then, it split 4 for 1 and since then with all sorts of problems with the then "water tight" CMDA technology. RMBS has many similarities to QCOM. The biggest similarity might be QCOM'S investors memories of the stock being crushed off a high of 240 to trade under 60 as recently as last week. This all happened in less then 6 months. The other huge factor is simply the "unknown"--will they really pay RMBS? What will they (Hitachi) pay, and for how long? All this remains to be seen and will effect shares of RMBS in a major way in the future.
Recent RMBS news is great but it should wear off soon, especially considering the QCOM debacle combined with the NASDAQs most likely shedding some profits. By August 2000, RMBS should again test its low of one week ago at 68.93750.
I see this as a cheap great percentage chance to get RMBS August 70.00 Option Puts. They should be about 1.25-1.50 tops this AM. If RMBS can be under 75.00 by 3rd week of August 2000 those RMBS August 2000 70.00 Puts could increase by 6 fold or more. The capital risk--100% risk capital is low risk and the risk reward is over 7- 1. I will play the percentages and purchase 10 August 70.00 RMBS Option Puts as close to the opening highs as I can today.
(**RMBS is way too dangerous to SHORT. I will instead look to play daytrader momentum and look to buy the stock on dips in the daily range today: See Stocks On Our Screens Today: Below for my RMBS predicted long ranges.)
RUN THE OPTIONS: RMBS PUTS
The August 2000 70.00 Option Puts.
(Symbol:BYQTN:) Predicted Ask: 1.25-1.50
Purchase 10 of these Option Contracts when RMBS open today at a predicted 129.00 plus.
Sell When RMBS trades under predicted 75 by August 2000 expiration date.
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
1. PSFT- It ran up 2 on 3 times normal volume. Watch today for a break out over 18.00
2. **RMBS- It should have support at 122.50 and 113.25. Then 103.75 and then 97, 92.50 It should hold 110.00 today on the news. If it loses 129.00 I will look to play it off those proceeding ranges long only with 2.5% sell stops.
3.GOAM- It traded 3 times normal volume as a press release sited news coming. It may break 15.00 today.
4. YHOO- Our Short worked well last 2 days as it tested 132-131. It should bounce back to 134.93750 as it makes resistance 136.00. I like a low of 126.00 and a high of 135 on it today.
5.EBAY- oversold currently solid support at 57.50 even if it loses this it may 55.50 soon.
6. JDSU- Its next level of support is 122.50 then 118.50. Today's high
predicted at 128.25 today's low predicted at 120.50.
7. RNWK- It was a perfect short short as it dropped to 48.8750 on the open as I shorted it at 54.75 yesterday. Today, I like it to test 45.00 and trade under 50.00.
8. LPTHA- It should bounce back to 37.1250-37.8750 today and then test 32.50 next 3 days
9. MACR- it should bounce back to 103.00 today then test 94.00 next 3 days
10.EXDS- It should see 41.00 before it finds 52.00 again.
11.CSCO- Support 62.43750 resistance 66.8750
12. ORCL- it should lose 78.00 soon and test 76.00
13.BIOI- it held up yesterday. It could trade. 14.50- 17.50 today.
14 BIOM worth watching as it had 500k plus in volume yesterday.
15. MSFT- 74.8750 is the 3 day low it may test this today and make 81.00 resistance.
16. QQQ- It did well yesterday dropping as a short call. It should rise to 97.50 today and then test 92.50
17. CRA what a short! It should rise 4 today and look to test 109 more into close.
18. ATON - This one should drop back under 80 soon.
19. TIBX 82 is coming
20. IFCI- It has solid support at 22.1250-22.50 it could take a shot at 27.50 soon.
21. GMGC-Support 7.25-7.43750 move could be 9.50-10.50 today.
22. PLUG- It should hold 58.00 today and make 65 its own next 5 days. I like it as a safe haven on expected pre Fed tech profit taking.
23. BVSN- It may test 53.00-54.50 in the next 3 days. It has support today at 55.8750 and may go as high as 60.50 61.00.
24. XLNX- It got hit hard off an all time high. It may bounce back to 93 today.
Have a great day!
More to come.........
Stock Jock! and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!
* The "Play of The Day!" Mon -Fri (every market day) Containing: Nasdaq Recap: Nasdaq Outlook: Main Play of The Day!" 2 Sago Bonus Plays and 1 Short Play. SJ Bonus Plays and Option Plays are done periodically, but not daily,,,,,,
PLEASE READ BELOW!
************COMING IN JULY 2000!*************
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