The Play Of The Day
June 21, 2000
8:44 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
ATTENTION ALL STOCK FANS!
The Stock Jock! ( Me) will not be in the LIVE Trading Room Tomorrow June 22, 2000. I once again will be helping make the final NEW SITE adjustments for a NEW SITE LAUNCH coming hopefully (crossing my fingers)! on July 3rd, 2000!
However, SAGO ,SONOMA, MATEO, should all be in the LIVE Trading Room tommorrow.
Thanks Stock Fans!
Yesterday, June 20, 2000 the NASDAQ finished an unprecedented run--as in less than 20 trading days it exploded on May 24, 2000 off 3,042.00 (a 200 day low) to a 60 day high of 4,050.00. This 1,000 point move was one that the NASDAQ had never seen in its entire history in less than one months time! The volume was also on the higher side as the NASDAQ traded in an extremely tight range of 3,982.00 - 4,050.00 ( 68.00 pts.).
NASDAQ OUTLOOK: "Buy The DIP!"
As I predicted correctly in our LIVE Trading Room yesterday the NASDAQ high was indeed 4,050.00. The move that the NASDAQ made from 6/19/00 - 6/20/00 from 3,818.00 - 4,050.00 (now the top of the 30 day range) was almost exactly the same one that the NASDAQ made on 5/24/00 (which is now the bottom of the 30 day range).
We know now that 3,042.00 was too low a final resting place and 4,050.00 now appears to be too high. So then where is the next best place?
Well, looking back at some KEY NASDAQ stock prices on March 21, 2000 I found some interesting data. It would seem that many of the NASDAQ leaders (popularity determined by average daily volume) traded yesterday a lot like the 4,711.00 highs reached on the NASDAQ on March 21, 2000. Those highs sent stocks like INTC, JDSU, CSCO, ORCL, MSFT to name a few, to highs that many of them experienced yesterday. Then, I decided to take yesterday's high of 4,050.00 and subtract it from the average trading high on March 21, 2000. The number I derived was 3,522.00. That would seem to be where I will look for the NASDAQ to retrace to as a low before the Upcoming June 29, 2000 FED Meeting. This number will fill in the NASDAQ open gap of 3,695.00 - 3,581.00. It will also hold the number from May 29, 2000 of 3,501.00. I looked back and it appeared that the NASDAQ Market Makers SHORTED stock at that number and caused it to drop it down to a low that day into the close of 3,401.00.
The Fibonacci Retrace seems to suggest this would be just over a 50% retrace. The place I will begin to look to buy then for the move on many of the KEY NASDAQ stocks is then 3,580.00- 3,525.00. I will then look for the FED decision on June 29, 2000 to be fairly NEUTRAL for the NASDAQ. Meaning that it does not expect a hike. The high that the NASDAQ had hit in May was 3,729 when the Market expected a .50 raise, but no further hikes. I like the NASDAQ to make a move over this number and see a Pre June 29, 2000 high of 3,765.00.
Today on the NASDAQ I will look to play the ranges as I always do. It would appear that the NASDAQ will open down under 3,982.00--the low yesterday. It then may see support at the 3818.00-3790.00 area and then bounce. It could come back and by about 1:00 PM EST trade just over 3,850.00. However, I like the NASDAQ to sell off into the close and close under 3,755.00.
PLUS Members Look For ALERT EMAIL updates!
Today's Play of The Day!, and (6 months) is: Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL)
ORCL was light on the revenue side so it has been hit ever since it reported its earnings. It's still a great stock to play today as it will have big volume. I will look to play ORCL several ways today. Look Below and you will see all the Ways!
KEY INDICATORS: ORCL (LONG)
Buy Area: $75.50-76.25
Sell Stop: $71.1250
TARGET: $80.50- 81.93750
Time Frame: Today
Type of Trade: Daytrade
SHORT PLAY ON ORCL:
SHORT ORCL: I will SHORT ORCL to just over the 15 day support of $76.06.
SHORT ORCL $82.75 - $81.75
BUY STOP: $84.25
DAYTRADE ORCL OPTION CALLS:
I will Daytrade (sell today) The ORCL July $80.00 CALLS if (and I hope when)
ORCL loses $76.00. I will act fast on the drop under as it should bounce.
Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) 6 Month PLAY!
KEY INDICATORS: 6 Month Hold (100 Shares)
Buy Area: under $74.00
TARGET: $110.00 (2 for 1 split $55.00)
"Run The 6 Months ORCL OPTIONS!"
The ORCL Jan 2001 $90.00 CALLS
BONUS PLAY #1 Finisar Corporation (NasdaqNM: FNSR)
Finisar Corporation is a leading provider of fiber optic subsystems and network performance test systems that enable high-speed data communications over Gigabit Ethernet-based local area networks, or LANs, and Fibre Channel-based storage area networks, or SANs. Its optical subsystems convert electrical signals into optical signals for reliable, high-speed data transmission over varying distances, speeds and transmission mediums. The Company sells its optical subsystems to manufacturers of networking and storage equipment that develop and market systems based on Gigabit Ethernet and Fibre Channel, which are advanced transmission protocols used in high-speed LAN and SAN applications. The Company also provides unique network performance test systems which assist networking and storage equipment manufacturers in the efficient design of reliable, high-speed networking systems and the testing and monitoring of the performance of these systems.
Stock Fans, Finisar Corporation is in a hot sector. They have unveiled an optical transceiver for gigabit transmissions. Volume is off the charts. Block trades show that institutions are buying. The timing indicators have turned up and this looks to roll. I expect the Nasdaq pull back a tad and I am looking to buy shares on the dip.
KEY INDICATORS: FNSR
Buy Area:$23.00 to $23.50
TARGET:$26.50 to $28.50
Time Frame: 3 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50- $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $2.49
BONUS PLAY # 2 Priceline.com, Inc. (NasdaqNM: PCLN)
Priceline.com, Inc. has pioneered a unique e-commerce pricing system known as a "demand collection system" that enables consumers to use the Internet to save money on a wide range of products and services while enabling sellers to generate incremental revenue. Using its "Name Your Own Price" proposition, Priceline.com collects consumer demand, in the form of individual customer offers guaranteed by a credit card, for a particular product or service at a price set by the customer. Priceline.com then either communicates that demand directly to participating sellers or accesses participating sellers' private databases to determine whether Priceline.com can fulfill the customer's offer. Priceline.com's unique business model can be applied to a broad range of products and services.
Stock Fans, another volume play. Block volume was unusually high. Priceline has a nice long handle forming on it's chart cup and handle formation. Looking to take a position on the morning dip for the swing.
KEY INDICATORS: PCLN
Buy Area:$45.50 to $46.00
TARGET:$49.00 to $51.00
Time Frame: 3 to 6 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $1.00 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $3.55
Pro Options Trader Mateo's Options Play Today:
ADBE (Nasdaq) ADOBE SYSTEMS
ADBE looks like it can't break that all time high of 132. If the Naz does consolidate at this point, which looks very likely, profit taking should move ADBE down to 123 near term and possibly to 114, at which point it may be a buy for a short term swing play long. But, here I feel ADBE is ripe for some puts. Use a strict stop loss of 133 and exit the play when you have a nice profit. No need to be a hero and ride it all the way down. I suggest the July 120 puts AXX SD last ask 6.
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
MUEI- Upgraded I will look to get in under 12.8750 and look for 15.50 today.
MKTY- This fuel cell may go higher
EFCX- It may add on more today holding it for 13 plus
FCEL- Another fuel cell stock closed near highs
NEWP- It should test 85.00 today a buy there.
CSCO- Bounce should be 64.00 and then by noon EST find 66.00 again
JDSU- It should now see 88.7850 before it breaks $128.00 again. Today $118.50 might be the bounce and then trade back to $123.25.
YHOO- Looks like a good SHORT to 131.00 3 days.
PLUG- It may drop back to 55.00 but I like 65.00 in 10 days
MACR- A long term hold under 90.00
RBAK- Look for 110.00 to hold on this one
INTC- It should test 129.00 -127.00 over next 3 days!
Have a great day!
More to come.....
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