The Play Of The Day
June 19, 2000
08:30 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ OUTLOOK THIS WEEK:
I will have my eye once again on 3,900.00 as well as the 3,982.00 marker last reached on May 1, 2000 -- the current 60 day high for the NASDAQ. If it can break 3893.00 the current 30 day high, then the huge amount of cash on the sidelines, and/or on several investors should board the NASDAQ train again for NASDAQ 4,000.
If the index can't break 3893.00, and break out of its tight range that it has traded in for more than 15 sessions now, then it should fill in a "gap" it has left open from 3,581.00 - 3,695.00. Another key area along the way back down--if it decides to fall back is 3707.00--the updated 200 day moving average for the NASDAQ.
Looking back at the last 6 months on the NASDAQ, it has traded in a tight range twice like it is in currently. However, it moved up abruptly once in October 1999 and, going back to July 1999, it moved aggressively down. With those two examples in mind no clear cut pattern can be defined.
Therefore, I will continue to await the FED meeting as the NASDAQ may indeed continue to trade in an extremely tight range. The 2 KEY areas are the current 30 day high at 3,993.00 and the current 15 day low at 3,695.00. The latter is acting as support. When the NASDAQ breaks one way or the other, then it should add more data to its intended direction. It won't have much economic data to move it either way as the May CPI, PPI and Labor Reports have already been released.
Today's Play of The Day is: LightPath Technologies (NASDAQ:LPTHA)
LightPath Technologies (NASDAQ:LPTHA) manufactures its proprietary collimator assemblies, GRADIUM(R) glass products and other optical telecommunications products at its headquarters in Albuquerque. The Company's subsidiary, Horizon Photonics, manufactures isolator products utilizing its proprietary automation technology.
LPTHA is a stock I played a lot when the NASDAQ was over 4,000. It has come on of late as the NASDAQ nears 4,000 again. It isn't necessary for the NASDAQ to trade over 4,000 for LPTHA to possibly get even hotter in the future. It isn't a part of the NASDAQ Composite. So, the fact that the NASDAQ trades in a lateral motion may help this stock more as investors again begin to realize that it is a fast mover when it gets more then 800,000 shares per day in volume.
LPTHA has had good support at $27.81 over the last 5 days. It also appears that if it can hold $29.75 it could again take a shot back to over $35.00 where it encountered resistance about 7 trading days ago. This one sets up as a good range play with a low buy area of $29.93750 -- $30.6250. It should pull back under 32.00 today and test that area, then make a move back to 35.00. If it can break 35.00 then this stock could break out and see 42.00 very soon. Again, it has low volume but its worth a range play till Friday with a risk of $2.81 for a reward of $5.00 or more.
KEY INDICATORS: LPTHA (LONG)
Buy Area: $29.8750- $30.43750
Sell Stop: $27.6250
2 DAY TARGET: $32.50 (It should be good for 2 points at this price)
5 DAY TARGET: $34.50-$35.1250
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY #1: Exodus Group (NASDAQ:EXDS)
This stock traded double its average 30 day volume Friday as it broke a KEY AREA of support to the upside of $98.50 as it traded over $100.00 on Friday to go as high as $103.3750. The area it broke on Friday was $98.50--its former 5 day resistance--may now act as support for this one as it is going to split 2 for 1 tomorrow. As I have mentioned in the past it is not uncommon for stocks that have splits upcoming to run up ahead of that split because they are shorted as volume on a 2 for 1 split isn't expected to double in most cases in order to account for the increase in stock availableand twice the number of shorts created.
EXDS looks to be solid for a move off 98.50 today as it should have some profit taking from its double digit gains Friday, June 16, 2000. If it can't hold 98.50 then 94.50 looks to be the next area of support. If this stock can break 105.00 moving back up then it could see $110.00 and bust over $115.00 in a hurry from there. Momentum looks to be solid on this one if it can hold $94.50. If it can't, it might not be a Long play till it bounces off $80.00 or (40.00 on its split) to fill in a gap up it has open in its 30 day trading graph.
KEY INDICATORS: EXDS (LONG)
Buy Area: $98.50-$99.8750
Sell Stop: $92.50
Time Frame: 1-2 days
Type of Trade: daytrade/Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS: EXDS (CALLS)
The July $100.00 Calls as EXDS tests $98.50
Sell the calls for a profit If EXDS hits $110.00
BONUS PLAY #3 - Nextel (NASDAQ:NXTL)
QCOM's loss may be NXTL's gain as this one traded big volume as it added on over 4.00--it could make a move even higher today as added volume could send shares of NXTL, a true wireless and telecom high flyer to over $70.00 to $74.75 where it should have resistance.
I am looking for NXTL to be active today and bounce off the $63.93750 where it has solid support. It should then make that move back to $70.00 and maybe beyond.
KEY INDICATORS: NXTL (LONG)
Buy Area: $65.50-$66.25
Sell Stop: $63.50
Time Frame: 3 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
SAGO'S BONUS PLAYS TODAY:
BONUS PLAY #S1 Automatic Data Processing, Inc (NYSE: AUD)
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. and its subsidiaries are engaged in the computing services business. All of the its computing services enable clients to process, distribute data and to interactively access and utilize third party and Company databases and information, utilizing the Company's batch, interactive and client site systems. The Company's computing services consist of Employer Services, Brokerage Services, Dealer Services and Claims Services.
Stock Fans, Automatic Data Processing caught my eye on Friday. Lots of block trades flying across the screen. Volume over the past few sessions and months have steadily increased. Automatic Data Processing sports a 4% debt, cash flow of $1.43 and a PE of 43. Earnings have steadily increased over the last 4 quarters. This company even pays a dividend! Stock fans its all about volume and the timing indicators say it is time for a swing with AUD.
KEY INDICATORS: AUD
Buy Area:$54.25 to $54.75
TARGET:$60.25 to $62.96
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for .25-.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $1.56
BONUS PLAY # S2 Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation principally is engaged in the business of energy, involving the worldwide exploration, production, transportation and sale of crude oil and natural gas and the manufacture, transportation and sale of petroleum products. The Company also is a major worldwide manufacturer and marketer of petrochemicals and participates in coal and minerals mining and electric power generation.
Stock Fans, Exxon Mobil Corporation has all of its ducks in a row. We listened to the CEO this weekend and Exxon and their management team are running on 12 cylinders. Volume has steadily increased over the last few sessions. Friday, June 16, 2000 Exxon made the high block trade list that I watch. Once again, playing the hot sector looking to recoup some of those high fuel prices back!
KEY INDICATORS: XOM
Buy Area:$93.00 to $93.50
TARGET:$91.85 to $96.025
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for .25-.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $1.82
STOCK TO WATCH THIS WEEK: ADDING ON BIG VOLUME IN A TIGHT RANGE:
Open Market (NASDAQ:OMKT)
This former e-Commerce high flyer had big volume of over 2.7 million shares on Friday but moved only $0.43750. This stock trading $15.50 -$16.50 of late could on all that volume be ready to break out. It broke out in Friday and didn't stop till it had seen $60.00 plus. If it can continue to have big volume it might really run and cross $25.00 where it can catch fire and explode to $27.00 28.00 area fast. It is worth watching. Look for me to update this one tomorrow or send an ALERT Email on a buy area if I do take a position in it.
STOCK ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
RMBS - 6-16 Close $83.3750. It worked out real well for almost 15 points in gains for me Friday. It may have profit taking today. The key areas towatch for bounces off support are $77.00, $70.1250 and $68.93750. I will look for a 4 point bounce off one of those areas today.
SGNT- 6-16 Close $7.75 It traded over 2.5 million shares on no news Friday. Its normal 30 day daily average is 683k. If it can break 9.00-an area it last had on June 6. It could run up over $11.00
CYBR- it gained nearly 70% Friday on news. It is worth watching today for more gains.
QQQ- Nasdaq tracking stock. This one should move big if the NASDAQ breaks 3,900.00 and add on $3.00 points if it loses 3,700.00 it could lose $5.00 points.
JDSU- 5 day double resistance at 123.00. Solid support in the 5 day chart at $114.50. If either area is broken JDSU should move at least 6 to that side in less than 2 days after the areas is broken.
YHOO- Resistance $146.00 Support $131.00 YHOO breaks either side it should then move 5 more to that side.
EBAY- Solid support at $58.50-$59.00 If it can't hold then $55.00 is where its gotta bounce.
MSTR- It has received a 125 million investment. It could find the $50's again.
COMS- It has a new product today Home Connect. It could be active.
LOIS- It added on big gains Friday on no news. Worth watching.
NPNT- It should bounce back today.
VVTV- Slowly it comes back--$25.00 is the number to watch this one at.
NBCI- It almost lost $17.00 into Fridays close it may get a bounce soon.
PPRO- It traded up on Friday it could add on more today $42.00 plus could break this one out big.
EGGS- Been hammered but big volume on Friday worth watching.
KEYN- Low volume but AOL had some hacking this one is one to watch on that type of news.
WGRD- This one may move off AOL hacking watch close.
CKFR- Another hacker stock.
WEBT -$41.00 is resistence if it can break it $48.00 should be coming soon there after.
CPTH- Watching this one for a break out.
GENE- This one gets active again.
CRA- If it can hold $96.50 it should bounce 6 off that.
RBAK- Key Support is $114.8750. If it can hold it $122.00 is a great range play add on in the range.
ICGE- With CMRC and ARBA hot again this one may make a move on added volume.
TIVO- It held 30.00 on close it could make it back to 36.00 as AOL
releases set top box's.
Have a great day!
More to come....
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