The Play Of The Day

May 5, 2000
08:55 AM EST.

Good Morning Stock Fans!

BREAKING NEWS: :Jobless Rate Lowest Since 1970

Non-Farm Payrolls April: + 340,000
Average Hourly Earnings: .04% up 3.9%


The NASDAQ had rather an uneventful day yesterday as traders and investors had 2 things on their mind the weather, and the Jobless Rate Numbers for April 2000 that we received today. The NASDAQ was only able to trade in a 78 point range yesterday as it traded it lowest volume of the year, and close up only 14.55 where it had began at 3,721.00

Today, with the data we received showing that the labor market is the tights since 1970, and is the narrowest really when you look further into the numbers all time. As more people have jobs in this country right now then ever before. The NASDAQ has a severe problem however and it is a simple case of the definition of a market. It must have buyers at current prices that see increases in pricers leading to gains (something it obviously lacks according to volume of late) as well as sellers (something it lacks of late as well) seeing the near future will lose their gains causing them to sell and take profits. What we know we can't have is like yesterday not really anyone doing anything. A stagnate market is one that can only go one way DOWN. If buyers refuse to buy, and sellers refuse to sell then it is simple for a market to exist in the mere definition of the economic cycle there within a market trading environment exists it must drop price to find buyers forcing sellers to leave as they lose profits. With the previous information stated the NASDAQ must fall.

The NASDAQ appears to be SHORTED higher in that investors as well as Market Technicians seems to have it shorted higher limiting supply and therefore causing price to rise even faster with believe it or not even less demand then it would normally take if people were buying. This creates gaps in current price levels and when the supply is added back in, and made available prices drop. Even though today's initial reaction to the Jobless Claim numbers wasn't so bad on the futures today for the NASDAQ, that is just an indicator now the actual investors that vast mass of humanity will decide do I buy here or sell. It would seem they sell and the fact that the market is SHORTED higher I expect the 3500.00 level to be tested today, and maybe even lost.

KEEP IN MIND STOCK FANS! - NASDAQ has a DOUBLE TOP now at 3,760.00! That is only 40.00 or so points where we closed yesterday. If that is the current top the last few days then the bottom still according to indicators in the NASDAQ's range is once the NASDAQ loses 3,522.00 it can go as low as 3,375.00 - 3345.00, 3,321.00 and then 3,265 followed by my Target ahead of 4,009.00 again 3,221.00 the 200 day low on the NASDAQ and the level many technicians believe is where it must go before going back into 4,000 and higher again. Also remember this we now know where sellers exist in mass under 3,600.00 as the NASDAQ showed us that as it was about to fall apart on fear this past Thursday. Once 3592.00 Thursday's low is broken I except the flood gates to open and the NASDAQ to sell off dramatically. May option Puts back this prediction up as well.

CORRECTION: CSCO reports numbers this coming Tuesday following the bell. I had made the mistake that they reported today. Forgive me - SJ!

(Look for ALERT EMAILS on regarding the NASDAQ trading ranges as today unfolds)

Today's Play of The Day is: Tibico (NASDAQ:TIBX)

Stock Fans, In any market you can't have a stock go down 12 points on 1.5 million shares then go back up 19 points on 500,000 shares then go up even more on 300,000 shares. TIBX has to be with little doubt shorted heavily. It looks like $95.00 is the absolute highest it can go. It went as low as $71.00 on Thursday of this week. We will then look to short TIBX under $91.00 and look for at least Thursday's low of $71.00 maybe even today or latest next week.

Sell Short: $90.00-$86.00
Buy Stop: $95.00
TARGET: $71.00 ( lower )
Time Frame: 1-6 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade

BONUS PLAY #1 APA Telecommunications (NYSE: APA)

Apache Corporation explores for, develops and produces natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. Apache's average daily production in 1998 was 75,000 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids and 590 million cubic feet of natural gas. The Company's exploration and production interests are focused on the Gulf of Mexico, the Anadarko Basin, the Permian Basin, the Gulf Coast and the Western Sedimentary Basin of Canada in North America. Apache also has exploration and production interests offshore Western Australia and in Egypt, and exploration interests in Poland and offshore The People's Republic of China. Apache holds interests in many of its United States, Canadian and international properties through operating subsidiaries such as Apache Canada Ltd., DEKEnergy Company, Apache Energy Limited, Apache International, Inc. and Apache Overseas, Inc.

Stock Fans, going with the hot sector. Congrads to OEI players. Apache has all of its planets aligned. Volume over 6 months has increased by 68%, 1 month 48%, 2 day change 24.8%, one day change +65%. Can you say "Breakout"? When a stock has this type of volume in a slow market, it gets attention. Oh yes, earnings. APA middle initial is "P" (for profit) and they must be growing it in the natural gas fields! Ready? Last four 4 quarters, most recent first, +999%, +999%,+999%, +211% ! They get the big"A" for accumulation and timing as you might imagine. They have a relative strength of 83 and an On Balance Volume of +38.2. Buying on any dip.

Buy Area:$53.00 to 53.75
TARGET:$59.125 to $61.81
Time Frame: 2 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for .75-1.25 point scalps. Avg. price range $3.34


JDSU- its trading ranges say it could find 79.75 soon
YHOO- It is saying 105.00 is possible
CRA- It has a gap to fill in at 47.00.
INTC - If it loses 115.00 it finds 110.00
CSCO- It may reoprt numbers but 623.00 is huge it loses that it will see 59-58
MACR- It can lose 10 easily
EXDS- It should hold mid 70's but that means it has plnty to give away
ORCL- The May Option Puts say 61.00 is in the cards
DELL- This MSFT tracking stock .(lol) says it could go as low as 41.00 in a NASDAQ selling spree.
MSFT- 65.00 is the bottom so far.
EBAY- loses 130.00 it could go to 122.00
BVSN - It should see 34-33
QCOM- I like it to see 92-91.00 when its all over.
GSPN - This one can go all the way back under 75.00
PWAV- Well the short of shorts back to 110.00
AMZN - could shave 10 back to 45.00
SCII- 21.00 I like
AETH- It has been on fire but in the process looks shorted. It can see 121.00 in a hurry or lower

More to come ...

Have a great day!

Stock jock!

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