The Play Of The Day

May 30, 2000
09:01 AM EST.

NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY: "The NASDAQ Appears To Be Heavily Shorted"

The NASDAQ Futures are up over 70.00 currently as it sets up for another GAP UP open and may find 3,265.00 before it even has time to settle in up from the 3205.00 triple top in the range it has found. The NASDAQ volume gets less and the NASDAQ range tightens. This is not a good omen for it to go much higher (Shorted Gap up, not true buyers in mass more then sellers) We know the NASDAQ has massive resistance at 3,390.00 and with it closing at just over 3,200.00 Friday on the lowest volume of the year the NASDAQ needs high volume now to find a firm ground. The high volume must come on the bottom setting up the NASDAQ to go lower.
I hate to rain on a NASDAQ bounce after a 3 day weekend, but for the NASDAQ to make a move like it has on the Futures (that should spill over to open) and send it higher to go lower. I like the NASDAQ to open just over 3265.00 and run out of gas about right there The NASDAQ needs all its index stocks to find new bottoms and with YHOO JDSU and INTC coming closer , but not yet the NASDAQ has very limited upside. ( more to come on this as the day unfolds PLUS MEMBERS, in the form of EMAIL ALERTS)

Today's Play of The Day is: Qualcom (NASDAQ:QCOM) (SHORT)

QCOM has had many problems of late being crushed off a 4 for 1 split area of $200.00 or so. With more shares 400% more came more shorts , and with the run up ahead of that split came "MANIC MARGIN" BUYING! - It makes no sense for some people to be asked to add thousands maybe in many cases 100's of thousands to their accounts to save their stock from getting called away. So they don't bother to send in money. Many it would seem ( due to QCOM big sell off ) don't even have the money to send in and save being taken away.

QCOM spiking up this AM ahead of the opening today, seems to lend more truth to r the fact that the NASDAQ is HEAVILY SHORTED and looks very much like it will find a fast bottom this week we hope! QCOM in that process should find a new low and probably lose 60.00 as MARGIN hurts it yet again!

Sell Short Area: $67.3750-$68.43750 (Friday's High $70.00 )
Buy Stop: $70.3750
TARGET: $62.3750-$60.25 ( At least Friday's low $62.3750)
Time Frame: 1 -3 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade

(* I will short 300 shares about 1/3 my intended total postion of 1,000 shares of QCOM short $0.93750 off todays open. Then use the KEY INDICATORS area the first for the the rest of my postion. )

QCOM "Off Bottom LONG" Prediction:
Buy Area: $55.3750-$57.25


Predicted High: $83.8750
Predicted Low: $76.00
Predicted Close: $80.1250

Sell Short: $82.25-$83.75
Buy Stop: $84.25
1 DAY TARGET: $76.00-$77.00
5 DAY TARGET: $73.1250 (200 day low tie)

Off $77.00-$76.00 Look for a bounce back to $80.25 high.


BONUS PLAY #1 Sigma-Aldrich Corporation (NasdaqNM: SIAL)

Sigma-Aldrich Corporation develops, manufactures, and distributes the broadest range of high quality biochemicals, organic chemicals, chromatography products and diagnostic reagents available in the world. These products are used in high technology research and development in the life sciences, at universities and in industry, for the diagnosis of disease, and as specialty chemicals for pharmaceutical and other manufacturing purposes in more than 160 countries. The Company distributes more than 85,000 chemical products for use in life science research, laboratory applications, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and as diagnostic reagents. The Company's life science products are used in many techniques and disciplines including molecular biology, cell biology, cell culture, protein analysis and chromatography.

Stock Fans, Sigma-Aldrich is in the Chemical Specialty group. This group has moved up in the weekly ratings over the last three months and over the last week. Sigma-Aldrich has 0% debt, a PE of 23 and cash flow of $1.45/ share. Earnings are increasing and estimates for 2000 and 2001 look solid. The daily chart is breaking out of the cup and handle formation. Volume Friday is up 53% over it's daily average, the slow day before the holiday. Sigma-Aldrich volume daily averages are up over the past few days as well as the one and six month time periods. Will be looking for a dip to add this to the portfolio.

Key Indicators: SIAL
Buy Area:$33.50 to $34.15
TARGET:$37.565 to $39.25
Time Frame: 3 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for .25-.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $1.46

BONUS PLAY # 2 American Power Conversion Corporation (NasdaqNM: APCC)

American Power Conversion Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets power protection and management solutions for computer and electronic applications worldwide. The Company's solutions include uninterruptible power supply products, electrical surge protection devices, power conditioning products, and associated software, services, and accessories. These solutions are for use with sensitive electronic devices, which rely on electric utility power including, but not limited to, home electronics, personal computers, high-performance workstations, servers, networking equipment, telecommunications equipment, Internetworking equipment, datacenters, mainframe computers, and facilities. The Company markets its products to business and home users around the world through a variety of distribution channels, including computer distributors and dealers, value added resellers, mass merchandisers, catalog merchandisers, E-commerce vendors, and strategic partnerships.

S&P MidCap 400 component American Power Conversion (Nasdaq: APCC - news) will replace Mirage Resorts (NYSE: MIR - news) in the S&P 500 Index after the close of trading on Wednesday, May 31, 2000

Stock Fans, we know that the index fund managers have to buy. The key is to get shares on the dip. American Power Conversion has a growth rate of 26%. It has no debt, a cash flow/ share of $1.23 and a PE of 28. Earnings estimates for 2000 and 2001 look to power this stock up the chart. This should be exciting to see on Monday as they scramble to accumulate shares.

Key Indicators: APCC
Buy Area:$31.75 to $32.50
TARGET:$35.75 to $37.38
Time Frame: 3 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for $.50 - $1.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $2.85


If I were I am not I remain SHORT off the 3362.00 Area we saw on Thursday of last week. However if I were I would sell my LONG positions at NASDAQ 3,265.00-3,290.00 today. I don't think the NASDAQ goes any higher then 3,321.00 today if it goes that high. I will SHORT more NASDAQ stock at under 3,300.00 today as the NASDAQ sets up to see 3242.00 again (and under) before 3,400.00 (Fridays Employment Report we await).

EBAY: patients on this one dropping before 70.00 its tests 57.00 and 55.00 it would seem.
CSCO: a 50 test is coming and when its broke NASDAQ should be very close to bottom. (SAVING this Buy Area: $46.3750-$47.8750 Its a Buy For the AGES and a hold long term there indeed.
MSFT: It should lose $60.00 before it breaks $66.00
DCLK: It been killed , but just under $35.00 could be bottom is bottom.
CMRC: It is a keeper with a double bottom with momentum tested on the drop at $29.50 I get it and hold. It should hold $25.00 and then bounce 8-9 off bottom.

Have a great day!

More to come....


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