The Play Of The Day

May 19, 2000
03:44 AM EST.

ATTENTION ALL STOCK FANS! - I will be out of the LIVE trading Room today. Therefore there will be NO ALERT EMAILS today. I leave the room today in the hands of SAGO will be at the featured act today and Moderators - Sonoma, David, Mateo, and Martin, will act as a tremendous supporting cast.

Have a great day and a nice weekend ALL! -SJ


The Composite lost more then 100 yesterday as it ended a morning tight trading range and began to follow CSCO a leader in the race to NASDAQ 4k and 5k CSCO saw huge volume yesterday as it went even loser then it did when the NASDAQ found its 200 day low on April 17, 2000. CSCO volume was massive as it traded down as much as $3.00 at one point bouncing off $50.00. The NASDAQ ended the day at its low as the 4th lowest trading day of the year 2000 was recorded even with CSCO huge 74 mill traded.

Today the NASDAQ begins its trading with May Options expiring. This type of expiration usually leads to a more volatile NASDAQ in the early trading hours as traders try and close out their positions. We will look for the NASDAQ to gain some today as it should hold 3,500.00 and then be unable to break over 3,550.00. The NASDAQ may well end the day again at its lows as traders clear out positions into the weekend. We like the NASDAQ to go as low as 3455.00 today as it may bounce higher for a time but more selling seems to be the trend and history states that the NASDAQ on options expiration days more often then not trades lower.

The KEY thing to watch today is CSCO. CSCO a key stock in the NASDAQ index proved to everyone that saw it trade that the NASDAQ can have big volume on selling as it must to find a bottom. What was more amazing about CSCO yesterday is its huge volume didn't lend itself to a CSCO like bottom followed by a huge bounce? CSCO may be the dress rehearsal for the NASDAQ upcoming featured event a test of its 200 day low. CSCO seems to say loud and clear that the long term money awaiting on the sidelines isn't willing to buy until perhaps the NASDAQ at least test or even finds a new 200 day low. The trend should continue with the NASDAQ of late being a 100 point rise results in a 133 points loss. This equation almost dead on with the NASDAQ in April and May should continue as stocks must go lower to create the needed bottoms to find buyers come into washed out stock for long term holds.

Today's Play of the Day: Tollgrade Communications (Nasdaq: TLGD)

Tollgrade Communications is a leader in providing service assurance solutions to the telecommunications industry. Tollgrade's focus is on helping local exchange carriers deliver the highest possible quality of service through enhanced testability. The Company develops, manufactures and markets Test System and Test Access technology that enables local carriers to achieve maximum Digital Loop Carrier (DLC) testability, along with the effective provisioning and deployment of next generation services that include Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) service. Tollgrade's next generation DigiTest centralized network test platform serves as the Company's system solution. DigiTest includes its Digital Wideband Unit for loop qualification and in-service DSL testing; the Digital Measurement Unit, which contains the test head for load coil detection and the complete range of Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) measurements; and Digital Measurement Node, which serves as the mounting shelf for the system.

Stock Fans, Tollgrade Communications is the best of the best. We have increasing volume and heavy accumulation. Tollgrade leads its industry group in earnings and relative strength. No Amazon here as Tollgrade has 0% debt. Looking to catch the dip and play the breakout.

Buy Area:$81.50 to $82.50
TARGET: $90.75 to $94.175
Time Frame: 2 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for 1$1.00 - $2.00 point scalps. Avg. price range $5.47

BONUS PLAY # 1 Albertson's Inc (NYSE: ABS)

Albertson's Inc. is a retail food-drug chain that, as of January 28, 1999, operated 983 stores in 25 Western, Midwestern and Southern states. The store chain consists of 866 combination food-drug stores, 86 conventional supermarkets and 31 warehouse stores. Retail operations are supported by 11 Company-owned distribution centers. The Company's combination food-drug stores are super grocery/super drugstores under one roof and range in size from 35,000 to 82,000 square feet. Most of these stores offer prescription drugs and an expanded section of cosmetics and nonfoods in addition to specialty departments such as service seafood and meat, bakery, lobby/video, service delicatessen, liquor and floral. The Company's conventional supermarkets offer a full selection in the basic departments of grocery, meat, dairy products and limited non-food lines. Warehouse stores are operated primarily under the name Max Food and Drug and offer savings with emphasis on discounted meat and produce.

Stock Fans, Albertson's stock came up in my "Breakout Bull" report. Wow a food stock, what a concept. The old economy is back! Slow and steady up is what we are looking at. Volume increasing over the last 1 day, 2 day, 1 month and 6 month time period. Albertson's was a $60.00 stock back in 1/99. Anyway here is a safe way to avoid the volatility. If all goes bad, we know that Albertson's won't be going belly up unless America goes on a strict diet!

Buy Area:$34.75 to $35.25
TARGET:$38.78 to $40.53
Time Frame: 4 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
Daytrade for .25-.50 point scalps. Avg. daily price range $1.20


The best NASDAQ short I see right now has got to be INTC. The NASDAQ is
was lead by CSCO'S huge volume lower yesterday as it traded over 70 million more then 20% more then it had just one day earlier. The NASDAQ even though it was down yesterday, it very well could have easily gone a lot lower had it not been for INTC adding on more then 3.00 on one point to go up to over 126.00.
Comparing INTC to CSCO. We see that CSCO has already lost its 90 day low as it went under $55.50 yesterday. Looking at INTC it announced a split but when? It doesn't take place for a while. INTC less then 6 trading days ago was bouncing off its 90 day low of $105.1250. If that's not a trend that works in the math then what is. The final question is not weather INTC will drop but instead will CSCO drop to under
$50.00 to allow INTC to hold $120.00? The answer is NO WAY!

Sell Short: $125.00-$123.00
TARGET: $110.00-$108.6250
Time Frame: 2-5 days
Type of Trade: swing trade
At $116.00 I will cover half my INTC short stock and then hold the rest
for the $110.00 loss I expect in next 5 days

The June $115.00's PUTS look golden to me

YHOO- It can easily find $122.00 today if it loses $128.00
ORCL- It looks very much like it could bounce back today and trade higher to go lower. ORCL still should lose $70.00 before it breaks $76.00 again
NUFO- This IPO yesterday may go higher today. Its in a very popular sector that being fiber optics.
JDSU- The range was $7.00 yesterday as it traded $93.1250 - $86.1250. It doesn't look like JDSU will see $90.00 again before it finds a test off $82.75 perhaps today.
DCLK- It looks like it could bounce back $2.00 today and then drop again. JDSU predicted range today $89.50- $83.75
ARBA- The chart says buy this one under $62.00 and look for a nice bounce.
CSCO- It should bounce back today. We like a move to 57.3750 up about 2.25 at its high. It then could test $55.00 again. CSCO 200 day moving average is $52.00 under $53.00 you gotta buy CSCO with sell stop of $49.50
CMRC- It could see a loss of 40's then bounce back to $44.00
EXDS- The chart says EXDS sees $68.00 before it finds $82.00 again
WEBT- Under $30.00 this one looks to be a keeper as it should have great numbers again when it reports.
EBAY- It could get rumors again of YHOO buying it. Its worth watching today. However if it loses $118.00 it could go back to its 90 day low of $109.25 reached only last week.
LCOS- It seems like it will hold $60.00 now as long as TRRA holds $45.00. If TRRA loses $45.00 LCOS should get crushed.
PWAV- The 3 for 1 split should start to wear on it soon and could send it under $50.00 a share soon.
DALN- Well it didn't get the volume it needed to sell off but it should soon as not many bet it higher yesterday.
EMC- Look for a bounce today back to $127.00
MSFT- The deal it proposed doesn't make the Justice Department smile MST can it lose 65.00 ? Yes, it sure can $62.00 may be next.
AETH - This highflyer should get hit hard if the NASDAQ sells down under 3,500.00 today.
QCOM - Hit hard yesterday a bounce off $95.00 today could get it a move back to $99.50 not a bad trade in the range.

Have a great day!

More to come....

Stock Jock!

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