The Play Of The Day
April 7, 2000
9:07 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:
The Jobs report looked to come in OK today. That sent up S and P Futures as well as NASDAQ futures quite nicely. However I still didn't like what I saw yesterday as it was just to much like the calm ahead of the storm we saw about 2 weeks ago that triggered a massive 2 part NASDAQ sell off that saw us not only lose 5,000 but 4,000 as well.
The volume yesterday on the NASDAQ was at an all time low for the year. I saw only 2 stocks trade near or over there 30 day average volume on the NASDAQ index. One of them was the markets best indicator of signaling a pull back DELL. DELL was the stock that held the NASDAQ up best in a major sell off that we somehow with stood this past Tuesday. DELL wasn't anywhere near as lucky yesterday as it sold off and dropped more then 4 at one point ending the day on nearly 40 million shares down more then $2.00
What bothered me the most about yesterday was probably what YHOO might have been telling the market as it played a dangerous game of cat and mouse but never breaking a key area 171.00 Tuesday's high yesterday. By not finding a way to break 171.00 YHOO remained in a range that brought a scary 132.75 number still into reach as Tuesday low. YHOO then sold off as volume at the top was chasing traders and shorting Market Makers. YHOO seemed to signal that the NASDAQ market lacked buyers yesterday meaning it should and probably will drop back
I know some of you may say. They were waiting for today's unemployment report to buy. However what still is unavoidable is the NASDAQ rose 100 plus points and was un able to break up into the top of its 30 day range going higher then 4,377.00. I don't think the NASDAQ breaks that number on more VOLUME today. I hate to be bearish on this market however I didn't see any buyers at 4,100 and I still saw no real buying volume at 4,300. This tells me that the NASDAQ was pushed higher on Market Makers shorting the index. The felling is very much like it was on March 24, 2000 when DELL was down on more volume and the rest of the NASDAQ was dangerously up on less. The fact remains we must have buyers willing to pay the current prices of stock at the top or we as the economic cycle of the market plainly indicated last time this happened less then 3 weeks ago or we will pull back until we do. They may push the index higher today. I highly doubt t we see more volume today taking it there. It is then a question of where the greedy shrewd Market Makers pull the plug just like they did on YHOO yesterday!
Today's Play of The Day is: (SHORT EBAY at top of predicted range) eBAY (NASDAQ:EBAY)
Stock Fans, I was sucked into the believe that YHOO would buy this company out a few days ago. I called the stock for a big move and we got it. However since then I have revaluated EBAY and come to the conclusion that YHOO wouldn't think to buy this stock anytime soon. Its not for the reason many of you may be thinking of YHOO not wanting it. I don't think that's the case. I think instead YHOO share price is just to volatile. Imagine if you were CEO of YHOO trying to make day to day decisions with over 524,480,000 shares outstanding and a share price in the 171.00 to 132.00 range on Tuesday YHOO's Market Cap fluctuated enough to buy 2 EBAY's! As it went up a down almost 40 billion in one day! That kind of volatility just doesn't work well trying to put together a big deal like YHOO EBAY would be.
The other factor that causes me to go short today on EBAY at the top is what I saw in after hours trading on Wednesday, ahead of YHOO reporting numbers on EBAY. I saw the stock close under 168.00 on Wednesday, and then literally explode to go as high as a very key number $184.75. EBAY couldn't break $185.00. That day YHOO closed similar and amazing enough just before its numbers it spiked huge to go as high as? Yesterday's high of $171.00 before it sold off to go as low as $158.00 amazing.
Today, or in the near future I think we see EBAY top out at $185.00. I know you options players still may have those EBAY April 250 options. I will sell mine for a minimal profit today. No big deal nothing lost nothing gained. I will then go short on EBAY as it approaches 185.00 today. It doesn't look like it will make it based on yesterday's volume. The cover for a loss area on this one will be $191.00. I set it a little higher cause EBAY can really move up and down 2 times faster then YHOO. It makes perfect sense that it should as EBAY is not even 20% the size of YHOO.
KEY INDICATORS: EBAY (SHORT)
Sell Short Area: $184.25-$184.93750
Cover for a LOSS: $191.00
Time Frame: It could be as soon as today or 1-3 days.
Type of Trade: day trade/ short term swing
BONUS PLAY # 1 BroadVision, Inc. (NASDAQNM:BVSN)
BroadVision, Inc. develops, markets and supports fully integrated large-scale application software solutions exclusively designed to manage one-to-one relationships for the extended enterprise. The Company's total end-to-end solutions enable businesses to capitalize on the Internet as a unique platform that empowers businesses to enhance commerce, provide critical self-service functions and deliver highly specialized information to customers, suppliers, distributors, employees or any other constituent of the extended enterprise through real-time interactive one-to-one relationships. The BroadVision One-To-One product family allows businesses to tailor Website content to the needs and interests of individual users by personalizing each visit on a real-time basis. BroadVision One-To-One applications achieve this result by interactively capturing Website visitor profile information and targeting organized enterprise content to each visitor based on easily constructed business rules.
Stock Fans, solid company with solid earnings growth and sales. BroadVision's closing price, closed above it's 10 day moving average. On Balance volume turned positive and in moved up in the overnight accumulation ratings.
KEY INDICATORS: BVSN
Buy Area:$56.00 to $57.00
TARGET:$62.70 to $65.26
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY # 2 Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQNM:ARIA)
Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. is focused on the discovery and development of novel and proprietary drugs based on its understanding of the inner-workings of cells and the genes involved in disease. The Company has developed a product based on its gene regulation technology to treat graft-versus-host disease, a complication of bone marrow transplantation involving an attack by a patient's immune system on healthy tissue.
Stock Fans, this is the hot sector...again. Ariad's closing price closed above its 10 day moving average. This stock sports a Relative Strength of 97 and an Accumulation rating of A. On Balance Volume has turned positive..
KEY INDICATORS: ARIA
Buy Area:$16.00 to $16.50
TARGET:$18.15 to $18.84
Time Frame: 2 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
YHOO- It needs to break $157.50 to have a shot at $164.00
NITE- Looks like it will still pull back. it was unable to plot through $48.00 yesterday.
CMGI- This one has to break $95.00 to get back to $100.00
DCLK- It needs more buyers to break $100.00
ISIP- Watch this one today to break $16.00 to $17.00 if it can it may see $20.00
LPTHA- It looks like this one is going pull back to the 20's soon
NAVI- Short it under $70.00 back to $51.00
Have a great day!
More to come....
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