The Play Of The Day
April 6, 2000
08:45 AM EST.
-NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:-
"Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) Whispers? But is it loud enouhg for the BULLS to hear it?"
The NASDAQ'S first big name kicked off the earnings season following yesterday's NASDAQ bell in what looked to be at first glance BLOW OUT NUMBERS! (NASDAQ:YHOO) beat the streets $0.09 cents a share by a penny and increased its numbers across all metric's.
However upon the numbers being released YHOO gapped up to 171 up 6 form its earlier close to then surpassingly see its share price fall to its low of the day on big volume of over 2 million shares following its earnings release to under $160.00 a key area for YHOO trading graph. YHOO beat the Street and perhaps the share price it had obtained less then 10 days ago supported what it had done the last quarter. However the up coming future of YHOO was met by one rather expected but perhaps disturbing fact. YHOO expected a seasonal slowing in its upcoming quater.
Stock Fans, What can we derive form what YHOO may have indicated is upcoming for the NASDAQ?
Well, for starters we know now as I predicted in a rather lonely crowd 2 weeks ago that the NASDAQ was due for a pull back to set it self up to go higher on big numbers expected from the likes of YHOO and other big name KEY tech issues on the NASDAQ. We know now the NASDAQ was way ahead of itself at 5,132, even 4,800 and yes even 4,300 as Tuesday's fall told us plenty.
YHOO may just be telling us all that beating the street isn't good enough for YHOO and the rest of the NASDAQ. Remember Stock Fans on October 22, 1999, the NASDAQ was under 3,000. We would set our clocks back an hour the following weekend and it turn that may have had a direct correlation of what was to come as YHOO and CSCO and AOL all enjoyed added business as the upcoming winter months and big Christmas buying season firmly supported. It was then that the NASDAQ would explode from under 2,900 on October 25, 1999, not looking back for much more then a quick breath until it had found 5,000 plus less then 6 months later on March 10, 2000.
What YHOO told us yesterday is an expected seasonal slump as more of us will be at the beach then online this summer may just indicate that at $170.00 or even $165.00 YHOO is overvalued for now. If YHOO couldn't break to $188.00 in after hours on numbers like those it puts fear in my mind to think if if YHOO would have missed numbers. YHOO was to expensive at 200.00 and its obviously to expensive at 160.00 so what does that say about the rest of the NASDAQ? Well, it says to me that the NASDAQ bell weather tech stocks will need to post not just blowout numbers but perhaps the type of numbers that Tiger Woods posted in winning 9 PGA Tournament Starts in a row! If the NASDAQ doesn't have CSCO and LU and ORCL and DELL all beat the Street and the Whisper Number by considerably more then YHOO did then the NASDAQ may indeed be overvalued based on an upcoming slowed summer.
With this in mind YHOO looks to open higher today form where it was in after hours. The volume so far is by no means stellar and it looks as if this NASDAQ market today is setting up for a LOW VOLUME rise on open to a top of up perhaps 60-70 then it should be pulled back and as much as I hate to say it we may just go into the first weekend of complete daylight saving time under 4,000 on the NASDAQ.
Today's Play of The Day is: Knight-Trimark (NASDAQ:NITE)
Knight/Trimark, headquartered in Jersey City, NJ, is the parent company of Knight Securities, Knight Capital Markets (formerly Trimark Securities) and Knight Financial Products (formerly Arbitrade, LLC). Knight/Trimark's subsidiaries make markets in equity securities listed on Nasdaq, the OTCBB of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and American Stock Exchange (AMEX), and in options on individual equities, equity indices, fixed income instruments and certain commodities in the U.S. and Europe. The firm also maintains an asset management business for institutional investors and high net worth individuals through Knight Financial Products' Deephaven subsidiary.
(NASDAQ:NITE) ran right off its opening low yesterday of $37.00 to trade as high late in the day as $46.1250, as it followed the NASDAQ index from an opening low of over 100.00 points down to a late surge of up over 100.00 points. Then the NASDAQ fell back as it closed up less then 20 points taking NITE off its highs to close at $44..56.
Today, NITE is indicated to open higher at about $45.00 I like the stock to fall short of yesterday's high of $46.1250 and then fall back and test the 40.00 area again today. It looks as if it may drop under $40.00 and have sellers getting out to avoid a fall back to $37.00 yesterday's low. At that point NITE looks like a great day trade/ range play as it should hold $38.00 and then make a move back to $44.00 as soon as perhaps today.
KEY INDICATORS: NITE: SHORT
(RISKY USE CAUTION!) OFF TOP OF PREDICTED RANGE)
Sell Short Area: $46.1250-$48.00
Cover for LOSS:$50.25
Time Frame: today
Type of Trade: day trade/range play
KEY INDICATORS: NITE (LONG OF BOTTOM OF PREDICTED RANGE)
Buy Area: $40.8750-$38.8750
Sell Stop: $35.00
Time Frame: today
Type of Trade: range/ day trade.
BONUS PLAY # 1 Gene Logic, Inc. (NASDAQNM:GLGC)
Gene Logic, Inc, (NASDAQ:GLGC) develops proprietary genomic information products, software, and research services and markets them to the global pharmaceutical and life science industries. The Company's products combine software tools with large-scale gene expression information, which specifies the degree to which genes are active in a broad range of normal, diseased, and treated conditions. This enables scientists to produce new biological knowledge by integrating this proprietary expression information with a growing array of biological information available on the Internet. The Company provides a variety of products and services in the areas of gene expression information, data management and bioinformatic software, and pharmacogenomics. These products and services are all designed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the drug discovery and development process. They may also be applied to research and development in other sectors, such as diagnostics, animal health, and agriculture
Stock Fans, with the Prez back-pedaling like he does so well, we know that we can have patents on the cool stuff we find in our petre dishes! Gene Logic has a 99 relative strength rating and is 72.8% off of its 52 week low. The chart looks good to bounce and has a lot of room to bounce! So I will take a partial position here and add 10% in either direction.
KEY INDICATORS: GLGC
Buy Area:$40.75 to $41.50
TARGET:$45.65 to $47.73
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY # 2 Harmonic, Inc. (NASDAQNM:HLIT)
Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) designs, manufactures and markets digital and fiber optic systems for delivering video, voice and data over cable, satellite and wireless networks. The Company's product line is comprised of three product families: Fiberoptic Products, TRANsend Digital Headend Products and CyberStream Data Delivery Products. These advanced solutions enable cable television and other network operators to provide a range of broadcast and interactive broadband services that include high-speed Internet access, telephony, and video-on-demand. Harmonic is headquartered in Sunnyvale, Calif., where it also operates an R&D center and a manufacturing facility. The Company operates its Harmonic Data Systems subsidiary and an R&D center in Israel. In addition, the Company maintains several sales and support centers worldwide.
Stock Fans, here is a company that is growing sales and earnings at a very fast rate. I am cautious on this market but I feel that this is a good stock to own at these levels. HLIT is 51.7% off of its 52 week high and sports a Relative Strength of 89. Last four quarters earnings were up, most recent to last, 999%, 675%, 200%, 126%.
KEY INDICATORS: HLIT
Buy Area:$74.00 to $76.00
TARGET:$83.60 to $87.50
Time Frame: 2 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY #3 - Internet Capital Group Inc (Nasdaq:ICGE)
Internet Capital Group is an Internet holding company actively engaged in business-to-business, or B2B, e-commerce through a network of partner companies. As of 12/99, the Company owned interests in 49 B2B e-commerce companies. For the FY ended 12/31/99, revenue totaled $16.5M, up from $3.1M. Net loss totaled $29.8M vs. an income of $13.9M. Results reflect higher revenues at Breakaway Solutions, offset by greater equity losses.
B2B has been a sector hit extremely hard as of late as well as the internet incubators. ICGE stock also suffered since it recently came out of it's 'lock-up' period when inside shareholders could profit from it's huge run up and cash out of their shares. Now it appears investors and institutions are coming back into the stock. Many rumors suggest that good news is soon to surface from ICGE. On the close yesterday there was a block buy for over 300k shares. Also, two other large blocks went at the ask during the last hour (300k and 190k shares). We like ICGE to run big on any news. Chose your entry carefully if you chose to day trade this one as we are looking for more volatility, (What else?) on the Nasdaq. If the Naz opens flat to up then ICGE should be solid.
Buy Area: $70.50 - 73.50
Sell Stop: $67 7/8
TARGET: $77.00 today
Time Frame: today
Type of Trade: day trade
"RUN THE OPTIONS!" ICGE
Options: April $80.00 Call Options off today's open look to be the best options to play off this call.
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
YHOO- not good enough back to $155.00 after it may find 164 shortly after its open today
EBAY- YHOO doesn't buy it yet. However keep in mind April 20, 2000 is still more then 10 trading days away.
AOL- It continues to hold up well as earnings draw closer
RNWK-at $41.00 its a steal
COMS- If it can't break 50.00 today then it may retest $45.00
GENE- Buy Area: $23.50 - $24.25 Stop: $22.75 Target: (1-3 days) $26.95-$28.18750
ISIP- It came on late and closed on increased volume at its high
ARIA- it cam on late worth watching today
NTRX- Looks good to find $20 plus soon
IFCI- If it can't hold 18.00 it may drop to $16.50
WEBT- It should hold $57.00
Have a great day!
More to come.....
and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM of Pro Traders!