The Play Of The Day
April 28 ,2000
08:50 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:
"Comparing the NASDAQ April 7, 2000 to April 27, 2000 Deja Vu!"
Stock Fans, on April 7, 2000 the NASDAQ had come off the April 4, 2000 lows of 3,652.00 and exploded to close at its high of the day at 4,446.00 up 178 points on the lowest volume of the year on the NASDAQ 100 index. On April 10, 2000. the next trading as April 7 was a Friday the NASDAQ went to as high as 4,504.00 up 58 points from its April 7, 2000 close. That would be the top as the NASDAQ would then drop 1,283 points or down or 28% off 4,504.00 in less the 4 days 4446.00 a low volume explostion much like yesterdays was resulted in a 1283 point sell off to the bottom when it was over.
Then The NASDAQ did indeed bounce off April 17 low and 200 day low of 3,221.00 going as high as 3, 851.00 on April 19. The NASDAQ had then moved 630 off its low on April 17 just 2 days earlier. Then the NASDAQ into last trading day of that week closed on April 20 at 3,643.00. The NASDAQ then opened up at its low of the day on April 24 on MSFT earnings out April 20 and on its WSJ article huerting its cause. The NASDAQ would go as low as 3,345.00 then bounce off that and trade higher for 1 day up over 200 in one day the 3rd biggest move ever. Then The NASDAQ yesterday got as high as 3,774.00 its high of the day.
What the data shows me is this. The NASDAQ went as high as 3,851.00 on April 19 before it then dropped on MSFT worries to 3,345.00 that drop was 506 points. The bounce back up is so far 3,774.00 yesterdays (April 27 ) close.
Looking back we see that the day I am comparing the NASDAQ to be so much like almost a carbon copy of yesterday was April 7. That day the NASDAQ went to as high as 4,446.00 as I stated earlier. The NASDAQ then on April 10 the next trading day went to as high as 4,475.00. That would be as high as it would go and has been since. (4,475.00 - 4,446.00 =29 points) We then look at April 24 low of 3,345.00 against the low on April 14 of 3,265. That difffernce is ( 3,345.00 -3,265.00= 80. If we add 80 - 29 togther to 2 ranges we are using the total then is 109.00. Then NASDAQ then should today use that range to 3,800.00 (UP today 50.00-58.00 or so at its highs today then go down 109 more then it did on April 24 when it found 3,345.00. So then 3,345.00 - 109 = 3,236.00 extremly close to the current NASDAQ 30 day low and the current 200 day low on the NASDAQ of 3,221.00 that area hit will give us the tested bottom we need.
Today -NASDAQ preidction not up more then 50.00 -58.00 - NASDAQ goes no higher then 3,832.00. It then should set it self up according to April 10 for a drop to
3,545.00 ( 4,475.00- 4,188,00 = 8% So then today 3,832.00 - 8% = 3525.00 ..I will look for that and then more come Monday!
YHOO triple top at 127.50
JDSU triple top 100.00-101.00
Today's "Play of The Day!" is: (NYSE:EMC) SHORT: top $144.00!
BONUS SHORT PLAY: EMC Crop. (NYSE:EMC)
On 4/4/2000 (4,283 -3,652 EMC hit its high $130.00 it hit a low of $111.00 then the next 3 days as there NASDAQ rose less volume so did EMC rise on little less as its 30 day average volume is 6.3 mill. It traded about 6.10 on average. Then on 4/14 it hit it all time high of $144.3750. It then sold off the next 5 sessions on increasing volume back down to where and took out its low on 4/4/2000 of $111.00 and it found a low of $107.00. Then get this EMC then did come off the low and where did it close on 4/14/2000. $111.00 exactly the exact low on 4/4/2000! WOW
KEY INDICATORS: EMC
Sell Short: $144.25-$141.8750
Buy Stop $147.00
TARGET: $111.00- maybe as low as $103.00
MORE EMC FACTS!
All time high 144.3750 -high today $140.50 = $3.8750
$107.00- 3.8750 =$103.1250
$111-107= 4 off = $103.00 WOW
RUN THE OPTIONS: EMC
The May $110.00 Option Puts
JDSU ( Not A Play Many of Your Are Sick of It ! LOL.. However We do get alot of mail on it so here's how we play it,,,,,
APRIL 10 ,2000 And April 14, 2000 are carbon coppies except one is going down big on a short crush down and the other is going up on low volume on a short squueze !!!
JDSU on April 10, 2000 had redicuosly low volume and it was crushed it closed about it low of the day.. its a reverse of today.. its high that day on get this 15,786,000 was $124.62 it low was $109.87 = $14.75 = OK today on 22,575,000 it had a hig of 99 low of 86 = 13.00 LOOK at that 1.50 more it fell on how much less volume 6.789 mill JDSU short sqeeze 4/26/2000 was 88-101 13 86 was low 88 the volume spiked as it went green!
JDSU April 14, 2000 volume 38,661,00 range was 101- 90.6250 $10.38 this
April 27 volume = 22.575 + April 10 volume 15.786 = 38.36 mill range = Arpil 10 range = 14.75 April 27 range = 13.00 So then 14.75 + 13.00 = 27.75
JDSU close 97.25 ok high 101 (worse case- 27.75 = 73.25 !!!!!! WOW! ) JDSU 30 day low = 73.1250
JDSU can trade 15 mill shares tomorrow and drop 14.75!
KEY INDICATORS: JDSU
Sell Short: $100.00
Buy Stop: $103.00
Time Frame: 1 -3 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS JDSU:
The May 80.00 Option Puts
JDSU long 88- 93.00 back up! ahead of big drop back to 73.1250
BONUS PLAY # 1 Copper Mountain Networks (NasdaqNM: CMTN)
Copper Mountain Networks, Inc. develops and markets a comprehensive family of DSL solutions that enable high-speed internetworking over existing copper facilities. The Company's mission is to enable carriers and other service providers to offer a full range of high-performance, cost-effective data and voice services over DSL that are easy to deploy, use, and manage. Copper Mountain's CopperRocket CPE family addresses the bandwidth, reliability, ease-of-use, and cost concerns of remote offices and users. Its carrier-class CopperEdge DSL concentrators and CopperView network management solutions offer a scalable platform for carriers and multi-tenant unit service providers to generate a high return on investment while satisfying the increasing user demand for bandwidth. Copper Mountain markets its products directly to telecom service providers and, to a lesser extent, through strategic original equipment manufacturers and distributors.
Stock Fans, Copper Mountain has one of those real pretty earnings runs. Last 4 quarters earnings have increased by +767%, +225%, +283% and +189%. Bet Amazon wish they had a earnings string like that! Copper Mountain's RS=92 and an EPS rate of 76. It has a 3% debt. It shows a B for an accumulation rating and a A for timing. CMTN's closing price, crossed the 10 day moving average initiating the buy signal.
KEY INDICATORS: CMTN
Buy Area:$85.25 to $86.00
TARGET:$90.00 to $94.325
Time Frame: 3 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
BONUS PLAY # 2 Emulex Corporation (NasdaqNM: EMLX)
Emulex Corporation is a designer, developer, and supplier of a broad line of fibre channel host adapters, hubs, ASICs and software products that enhance access to, and storage of, electronic data and applications. The Company's products, which are based on internally developed ASIC technology and are deployable across a variety of heterogeneous network configurations and operating systems, support increasing volumes of stored data. The Company is also a supplier of some traditional networking products that include printer servers and network access products. Emulex sells its products worldwide to OEMs and end users, as well as through other distribution channels including value-added resellers, systems integrators, industrial distributors and resellers.
Stock Fans, Emulex has sold off with the market and has yet to bounce. It has a beautiful earnings record. Last 4 quarters earnings grew +300%, +667%, +800% and +600%. It sports a growth rate of 107%. Quite a rosy picture! This company has 0% debt. Now the stock is 79% off of its 52 week high and most of the big money has yet to come back in. So, here is the question. Do you wait till big money buys, runs it up 10-15 points and then issue recommendations? Looking to take a position for a swing.
KEY INDICATORS: EMLX
Buy Area:$46.50 to $47.25
TARGET:$51.975 to $54.375
Time Frame: 3 to 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
STOCK TO WATCH TODAY:
YHOO has a triple tops at $127.50.00 (highs less then 1.00 off that 3 days in a row!) YHOO should not break $127.50 today. If it does then $131.75 is the high it should find ahead of it dropping big back to $107.00 or under in next 10 days.
KEY INDICATORS: YHOO SHORT
Sell Short: $129.50- $126.00
Buy Stop: $133.00
Time Frame 2 -10 day
Type of Trade :Swing Trade
YHOO RUN THE OPTIONS: YHOO
The May 110 Option Puts