The Play Of The Day
April 25, 2000
09:07 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Today's Highlight: JDS Uniphase-Can it gain the NASDAQ''S Praise and Beat the Street & Not warn of a slowdown in growth in 2,000?
That Will Be Answered Today:
JDS Uniphase is expected to double its revenue when it reports earnings on the close today. PLAYPLUS Members look for an email alert on what we are planning on doing with our JDSU shares later today.
NASDAQ OUTLOOK TODAY:
Before we look at today's NASDAQ outlook let's review what took the NASDAQ to yesterday's close of 3,482.00 as it closed off Thursday, April 20, 2000, close of 3,643.88, down 161.00 points.
NASDAQ TIME LINE: (October 25, 1999 - April 24, 2000)
-"The NASDAQ'S RISE AND FALL TO 5,000.00!"-
October 25, 2000 -(Stock Jock goes all in the NASDAQ) The NASDAQ closes up 55.00 at 2,815.94-
Oct 30, 1999- Daylight Savings Time Begins
Nov 1, 1999 - The NASDAQ closes just under 3,000 at 2,997.00
Nov. 2, 1999- The NASDAQ closes up over 3,000.00 at 3,014.84
Nov 30, 1999 - The NASDAQ ends Nov 1999 just under 3,500.00 at 3,421.61. NASDAQ sees record volume in November as it gets ready to break NASDAQ 3,500.00
DEC 1, 2000 - NASDAQ closes at 3,321.00
DEC 2, 1999 - NASDAQ closes at 3,321.00 (Forms a double bottom-that would not be tested or broken again for more then 3 months till April 2,000!)
DEC 23, 1999- The NASDAQ ask Santa Claus for 4,000 He delivers it closing over 4,000 for the first time in history at an all time high of 4,001.63
DEC 31, 1999- The NASDAQ is amazingly enough not effected by Y2K fears as it closes out 1999 up big at 4,082.37-
Jan 3, 2000-NASDAQ top out at 4,192.00 It brings on selling that had waited in 1999 till now to happen as capital gains will not be counted till after 2,000 is over. On that investors sell knowing they have till April 2,001 to pay the piper!- The NASDAQ drops under 4,000 mid day but comes back and closes over it at 4,052.00
Jan 7, 2000 - The NASDAQ drops to as low as 3,711.00 as investors finish selling. The NASDAQ turns upward into the close and closes at its high at 3,882.62
Jan 24, 2000- The NASDAQ hits a year high and all time high of 4,303.15
Jan 31 , 2000 - The NASDAQ closes out January just under 4,000 at 3,940.35
Feb 17, 2000- The NASDAQ closes over 4,500.00 for the first time in history up over 100 plus at 4,548.00
Feb 29, 2000-The NASDAQ leaps its way to an all time high of 4698.46. It finishes Feb 2,000 up more then 600 points for the year 2,000!
March 7 , 2000, "March comes in like a LION! Or more like a BULL on a rampage!" NASDAQ sees 5,000 plus going up more then 200 points to hit 5,006.00 at its high it can't hold 5,000 as it closes under 4,900.00 as well at 4,847.00
March 10, 2000 - The NASDAQ hits its all time intraday high of 5,132.52 it manages to close over 5,000 as well as it holds up and ends this historic day on record volume at 5,046.83
"THE NASDAQ FALL BEGINS!"
March 21,2000-NASDAQ opens at its low of the month down more then 200 giving away all of March's gains on rate fears. It would close down at 4,712.24 after going as low as 4,467.00 1 day ahead of FED upcoming .25 rate increase.
March 22, 2000-The NASDAQ would begin a 3 day run on extremely thin volume to back to 5,000.00. Manic investors failed to see what I did as I went short at 4,924.00 after the FED only increased rates .25. The NASDAQ Market Technicians looked to go short as well as they bought up large volume April puts way out of the money!
March 24, 2000-The NASDAQ goes as high as 5,078.86. This low volume increase was more then 600 points up ward back to 5,000. In this case 5,000 the second time around would be really only be created off Market technicians shorting huge amounts of stock as investors chased some of it higher. This move to 5,000 would have never took place if the Market Technicians couldn't short stock.
March 29, 2000 - The Stock Jock-That's me goes SHORT at 5,022.00 seeing the low volume rise to NASDAQ 5,000 was a created one.
April 2, 2000 -Day Light Saving's Time Begins
April 3, 2000-The NASDAQ falls more then 900 points, in less then 6 days of trading day down big at one point in the day losing a key area of 4,192.00. It would have buyers keep it worth 4,000 into the close as it regained 4,200.00 to close at 4,223.74
April 4, 2000 - The NASDAQ manages a gain finding almost 4,300.00. However that was short lived as NASDAQ Market technicians had had enough as they prepared to take the NASDAQ down more then 630.00 points to under 3,700 to a low of 3,652.81. The Market Technicians would get crushed later in the day as they had to cover those shorts and the market amazingly enough exploded to close ironically down only 280 points as it again closed over 4,000 at 4,148.89
April 5, 2000 - The first of the big Techs Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) reports its quarterly revenues. It beats the Street by 2 cents but it sees a "Seasonal Slowing",upcoming into summer 2,000. YHOO would tell what was to come as other key tech stocks reports good numbers but again saw "Seasonal Slowing"
April 7, 2000 - Amazing enough the NASDAQ manages to add on over 170 points as it closes out an incredibly volatile week the most in its history at 4,446.45. The Stock Jock - Me again sees this move on thin volume a second time and makes a rather unpopular decision going short in a major way at 4,377.00 With the NASDAQ gain that day I would only be down over the weekend, as it would turn out I went short just 70 points or so off the NASDAQ'S 14 day high that day.
April 11, 2000-Abbey Joseph Cohen decreases her model portfolio by 5% in Technology as she sees the S and P already had hit her year long target of 1,575.00. With many of these stock in the NASDAQ it was hit hard falling some 150.00 when it was over to close at about 1000.00 points off it all time high closing high at 4,055.90
April 14, 2000-The NASDAQ futures begin up over 100 until the CPI report hits and is way over what is expected. The CPI report causes the NASDAQ to open more then 200 down and it sells off from there reaching a 200 day low of 3,121.00 now more then 2,000.00 points off its intraday high of 5,132.00 reached a little more then 25 trading days ago on March 10, 2000. The NASDAQ manages to close off the lows at a key area again 3,321.00 its double bottom close on DEC 1, and 2, 1999.
The NASDAQ would rise the next 3 days on LOW VOLUME to go as high as......
April 17, 2000 3,851.00 ahead of AOL and INTC upcoming numbers expected on the market close tomorrow.
April 18, 2000-AOL and INTC report their quarterly numbers. AOL does well and sees doesn't comment on remainder of 2,000. INTC blows away the number they are expected to get by 8 cents. However then sees a slowing as well as tight demand in 2,000. INTC close of $129.00 drops fast to as low as $122.00 in after hours.
April 19, 2000 - The NASDAQ gets hit hard as INTC gets killed leading it lower to close at 3,706.00 down more then 100.00
April 20, 2000 - Options for April expire along with index options. The NASDAQ begins a little higher then drops before it rises near the close on less volume again as the NASDAQ Market Technicians short it on the fact it has no buyers into long weekend.
Miscosoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports its numbers-It beats street by 2 cents. It however sees a major slowdown into summer 2,000. The market has half its ammunition for what will follow the long weekend coming
April 23, 2000 - EASTER
April 24, 2000 - Yesterday the market opened down more then 175 points at 3466.00. It would never find 3,500.00 as MSFT was reported in the Wall Street Journal as well as The Washington Post to be broken up, and a long legal delay was in store along the way. MSFT opened more then 10.00 down and never regained it losses as it took the NASDAQ down more then 250.00 a one point to as low as 3,340.00 (Stock Jock goes long on bottom CSCO,ORCL, INTC, YHOO, EXDS, QCOM, CMGI, INSP, GNET, JDSU, QQQ- at NASDAQ 3,345.00) The NASDAQ would come on then as it tested April 14, 2000 stock price lows on many of its key NASDAQ stocks. The NASDAQ goes as high as 3,496.00 in wanjning minutes to close at 3,482.00 less then 150.00 down on the day
April 25, 2000 - ??????
What a journey it has been from 5,132.52 - 3,221.00 back to 3851.00 then again to 3,340.00 taking us all the way to yesterday's close.
The NASDAQ should get some support today from many of its beaten down Techs. CSCO , ORCL , JDSU and a hot of other stocks all went higher in after hours yesterday. Even MSFT got back some of its loess in the after hours session.
Today the NASDAQ futures are up currently as we head into the open. The NASDAQ should got a pop off the open from yesterday's surge on close. We called JDSU , QCOM and EXDS as well as CMRC off their lows with other KEY NASDAQ tech stocks. We remain long into today.
The NASDAQ may add on 50 points today early as it could go up up and over 3,500.00. If the NASDAQ makes a move like that it could go to as high as 3582.00 maybe even 3,590.00. 3,600.00 I don't think is found as NASDAQ stocks will not be able to find their intraday highs from last Thursday as the NASDAQ may appear to rally. As the NASDAQ passes 3,500.00 it could indeed have chasing traders thinking all is well at 3,500 plus. This area however is where the NASDAQ Market technicians have shorted the NASDAQ higher in the immediate past to take it lower. I like the NASDAQ to again go higher faster over 3500.00 as it closes in on 3,600.00. However the Market Technicians should add to the supply at that point and flood key NASDAQ stocks with stock that has little or no demand at prices nearing NASDAQ 3,600.00. The NASDAQ should then drop back faster and lose 3,500.00. It could then hold for a while in yesterday's end of day rally range at 3482.00 -3,340.00. I like the NASDAQ to have a fairly wide range today but not end up a whole lot off yesterday's close of 3482.00. I like a close of about 3470.00 - 3510.00 or so. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) should then finish (AMZN reports its numbers on close today) what Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) had begun almost 1 month ago on April 5, 2000 when it warned of slowing. MOT added to it INTC continued the trend and MSFT re iterated loud and clear what INTC has said. AMZN won't even have profits to report tonight. It will be more losses. The market will have what it needs to take us back 3,321.00 (double bottom) perhaps even 3,265.00 and maybe even lower. We should as history indicates on the NASDAQ not lose more then 41% off our all time high and hold 3,000.00. What is KEY is that the NASDAQ can break 3,321.00 and 3,221.00 intraday as long as it manages to close over 3,321.00 creating a solid number of closing support at 3,321.00.
NASDAQ GAME PLAN: Long yesterday at 3,445.00. Stayed long into closed and remain long into today's open. I will remain long today and ride what I see as a we up to close to 3,600.00. I will sell my long plays today (including JDSU) at just under NASDAQ 3,600.00 about 3580.00 or so.
I will then SHORT the NASDAQ heading into an AMAZON of Loss's as the NASDAQ should be in perfect position to test its 200 day low as AMZN will lose more then they should but add on revenues. This pattern will not be tolerated and AMZN could then set up an Internet Stock slide that should spill over into Tech's as the lesson that investors have already learned:
"You Can't Stay Ahead of Debt on Credit Forever!" (MARGIN CALLS! Proved Why It Doesn't Work!)
Once AMZN tries to sugar coat the numbers the likes of Henry Blodgett MER's- extremley influential Internet analyst will come in and say AMZN has to make money NOW! It can't continue to ....? "Stay ahead of debt on credit" Hey theres that phrase again. The market looking in the past history of it sometimes says more then one thing at a time as it makes examples of it. Hnece many investorts learning the magin debt lesson. Now it should tech one of its major stars in the last 3 years a lesson as well on Debt using margin AMZN! Revenues are not enuogh that is one theing that the NASDAQ has told its investors this past month or so. Now the top brass at AMZN will be made to understand they are not free of this action as increasing revenues to lose more is a failing propostion and one that investors found out all to well in the NASDAQ RISE AND FALL TO 5,000!
\OK on to Today's PLAY - LONG and STRONG into the OPEN! Looking for a NASDAQ top under 3,600.00 today
Today's Play of The Day is: Qualcom (NASDAQ:QCOM)
QCOM should see a nice bounce and sets up well as a good call to make today.
Buy Area: $98.00-$97.25
Time Frame: today
Type of Trade: Daytrade
RUN THE OPTIONS: QCOM
Thec May $105.00 Calls
QCOM LONG AT TOP OF PREDICTED RANGE
KEY INDICATORS: QCOM (SHORT )
Sell Short: $110.25-$108.00
Time Frame: 2 days
BONUS PLAY #1: Ancor Communications (NASDAQ:ANCR)
I choose ANCR again today as I follow it daily, and it also being low in price and makes money in an up and coming sector also add to its value. I like it a lot today at yesterdays close as it has created a TRIPLE BOTTOM. This are is almost as solid as a rock in an uptrending market like I think we have throughout most of today. I therefore like ANCR to bounce just off yesterdays close of $20.1250, and then run to maybe 25.00 as it should add on volume. I will look to short it at the top of the range as I await AMZN numbers today.
KEY INDICATORS: ANCR
Buy Area: $20.3750-$20.50
Sell Stop: $19.1250
At NASDAQ 3580.00 or $25.00 on ANCR I go short ANCR
BONUS PLAY #2: Tibico (NASDAQ:TIBX)
It has been crushed of late. I like how it found $70.00 yesterday then sold off late in day and got some of it back. TIBX should retest $62.00 then run to $72.00 I will short TIBX under $76.00 today.
KEY INDICATORS: TIBX (LONG)
Buy Area: on open
Sell Stop: $59.00
Time Frame: Today
Type of Trade: daytrade
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
EXDS- A great call yesterday I like 98.00 today. I short under $100.00
CMRC- It filled in its range gap perfectly I like $58.00 today. I go short at $59.00
YHOO- I stole it at 108.75 yesterday. I like 122.00 -124.00 today before i sell out and go short again.
INSP- I like 55.00
MSFT- It may retest 66.50 then make a move to 68.00 but that the top ahead of MSFT testing 65.00 soon.
JDSU- It will report numbers i stole it long yesterday at $74.75 and $74.3750 and 75.50 loading up on it ahead of numbers. it could run to 89.00 today but 90 is a strench. I will not short JDSU i will sell into close or at what i fell is top . I will not take a chance on JDSU mssing or worse hitting then seeing slowing.
Have a great day!
More to come....
and BigPlayStocks.com TEAM OF PRO TRADERS!