April 20, 2000
08:59 AM EST:


NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:

Today Is a Double Witch Day. Meaning the April Options, Futures expire today. They usually expire on the third Friday of the month. Except the NASDAQ as well as all the U.S. Markets will be closed tomorrow April 21, 2000, in observance of Good Friday.

Here our the numbers on the NASDAQ:

Yesterday's high: 3,851.00

The NASDAQ has risen on much less volume since 3,600.00 going to 3,781.00.

That range is 251 points.

We also know the NASDAQ has plenty of buyers at 3,227.00 based on Monday's low.

The question then is if the NASDAQ has run 251 points higher on less buyers. Then it should in turn go that much lower under 3,600.00 The number we then derive at is 3,349.00. That number is very close to our magic Double bottom and Friday of last weeks close of 3321.00.

NASDAQ predicted range today. High up 125 points.
Low Down 130. Close 3,582.00

Today's "Play of The Day!" is: Commerce One. (NASDAQ:CMRC)

The Stock ran yesterday from $85.00 to $103.00 on pretty good volume to find it high at 103.00 It then sold off into the close. On earnings they had an increase in revs up 1500%. However CMRC still a great up and coming company still made no money. It also closed way off its high at 95.00 or so yesterday. It then went to 91.00 on earnings then back up some.

With a 2 for 1 split comes 2 times the shares. So that means to times the shorts. It also means since it dropped on close that sellers came in and it probably is held in pretty good volume by the Market Technicians as well. Therefore they could and probably will release supply into the stock 2 times the amount they had on close with sellers coming in and market closing and ahead of numbers no buyers. Also CMRC will need to trade 2 times the volume of yesterday 8.2 million so 16.4 million to account for the extra supply today to hold up its current price. The volume will tell the tail on this one. However with today setting up for low volume meaning a lack of buyers CMRC could rise quick off the bell and then run but probably drops running ahead of its earnings yesterday more then 18 points $85.00 -$103.00. It is also trending up in premarket on very low volume as it sets up for a selloff. One last point CMRC should fill in its overnight gap up of 95.00 split 47.50 to 55.00 now is almost 8 points. CMRC sure looks like a good bet to shoot out of the gate like a Triple Crown Winner. However in the back stretch around turn 2 it looks to run out of gas and drop like a rock!

KEY INDICATORS: CMRC
Short Sell: $61.00-$63.25
Buy Stop: $66.8750
TARGET: $44.00
Time Frame: Today
Type of Trade: Daytrade

GO LONG CMRC: @ 44.00 for a $50.00 Target today!

BONUS PLAY: (NO Bonus Play's Today Volatile market today. So we will just do stocks on our screens. Play of Day Plus members watch your emails for mail on timing plays.

STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS:

Again Watch your emails. The usual NASDAQ suspects.
QQQ, YHOO< DCLK, CMGI, ORCL, CSCO, INTC, DELL


Have a great day

Enjoy your weekend!

More to come...

Stock Jock!
and BigPlayStocks.com Team of Pro Traders