The Play Of The Day

April 17, 2000
6:01 AM EST.

Good Morning Stock Fans!

Today's Play of The Day is: America Online (NYSE:AOL)

America Online (NYSE:AOL), at the end of Feb 2000 was reported to the world via a press release through the likes of Media Metric. AOL memberships we reported up over 30% since December 13, 1999. Since that time AOL has stock has traded as much as 40% off its close on DEC 13, 1999 under $55.00. AOL will be reporting numbers this Tuesday following the days end of trading. It is interesting to point out that AOL is the only Tech and Internet Related stock that is a bell weather that did not find year lows this past week as the NASDAQ index and other were killed. AOL lows cam near the end of Feb 2000 as it went under $50.00 to $48.43750 on it re evaluating itself as compared to the likes of Time Warner (NYSE:TWX).

AOL has already tested itself and found that it can go to as high as 70 plus in a uptrending NASDAQ and Internet market like it did in mid to late March 2000. When AOL reports numbers in less then 2 days they should say that AOL is worth much more then it is currently. Imagine this what if the AOL-TWX deal would have never happened? Would AOL been struggling to hold $54.00 like it did on Friday? No way AOL would have been more like $130.00 as it would have been holding up well and running into earnings like it has so many times in the past. It is important to keep this in mind as AOL today could and should be on sale like it never has before. Is it a forgotten stock, one that has seen its rise and fall? Not in the slights AOL nearly was indicating to many what was to come for the NASDAQ's Net stocks that didn't have any earnings last quater and won't anytime soon. AOL is the bench mark that all stock on the NASDAQ are compared to as well as some of the overall markets powerhouses. On Tuesday the both markets the NYSE and the NASDAQ will again watch AOL as it puts the market on its back and leads them yet again. That journey back to predominance begins today!

Buy Area: $55.1250-56.25
Sell Stop: $53.93750
TARGET: $62.00- $66.00
Time Frame: less then 2 days
Type of Trade: overnight hold

The AOL May 2000 60.00 and 65.00 Option Calls look to be the best options to ride AOL's upcoming most anticipated blow out numbers

BONUS PLAY #1 - Ancor Communications Inc. (NASDAQ:ANCR)

Ancor Communications Inc, (NASDAQ:ANCR) provides high-performance SANbox(TM) Fibre Channel switches for storage area networks (SANs). The company's customers include Sun Microsystems, Hitachi Data Systems, and MTI Technology Corp., as well as SAN resellers. The company was the first to deliver a Fibre Channel switch, and the first to top the one-gigabit performance level. Ancor, an ISO 9001 quality certified company, is a member of the Fibre Channel Industry Association, the Storage Networking Industry Alliance, the ANSI Standards Committee, the InfiniBand Trade Association, and the University of New Hampshire Fibre Channel Consortium to promote the advancement of Fibre Channel standards and interoperability. Information on Ancor is available on the Web at

(NASDAQ:ANCR), looks like a good pay as on Friday it did trade over its 30 day average volume of 926,000 shares. However, that was to be expevted as it lost over 4.00 at one point dropping under 20.00 a share a place it had not been since October 1, 1999 and the NASDAQ was under 3,000. with the NASDAQ still more then 300 points over 3,000 and ANCR bottoming out Friday as the volume was 1.4 million not a whole lot more then its 30 day average. The volume that ANCR had ahead of losing 25.00 a key area on its rise to over 90.00 a share was much more crucial as its volume losing that area would indicate.

What does all this add up to? Well, it may say loud and clear the ANCR lost the bulk of its sellers over 25.00 it also makes a strong case for having a surplus of buyers under 20.00 as the stock lost 20.00 for less then 5 mins on Friday as it bounced. It looks way oversold as those holding it have more then panicked. It sets up well today, as it has not made much of a move over 20.00 yet. Putting all this into persecutive leads me make the conclusion that ANCR is low risk as long as it holds 20.00 and also represents a great chance for nice gains as this stock based on its sector and market presence witting that sector should be trading over $30.00 with the NASDAQ holding over 3,300.00.

Buy Area: $21.50-$22.1250
Sell Stop: $19.8750
TARGET: $31.00-32.00
Time Frame: 10 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade

The May 2,000 $25.00 and $30.00 Option Calls


BONUS (Short) PLAY #2: Aether Systems, Inc. (NasdaqNM: AETH)

Aether Systems, Inc. provide wireless data services, systems and software enabling people to use handheld devices for mobile data communications and real-time transactions. Aether's strategy initially focused on developing services for the financial services sector. Current services include TradeRunner, a real-time wireless trading and financial information service offered to the online customers of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Online, and the Reuters MarketClip service for financial market price quotes, alerts and information. The Company is also developing wireless trading and financial services for other major financial institutions, including Charles Schwab. Through recent acquisitions, the Company has expanded its services into the healthcare, sales force automation and transportation logistics and delivery industries. OmniSky, a company formed by Aether and 3Com, is pursuing opportunities for wireless e-mail, Internet access and other electronic transactions applications.

Stock Fans, looking to daytrade this puppy. Aether has been moving down faster than you can say falling knife! Its accumulation rating or should I say distribution ratin is "E", the lowest. I plan to scalp Aether but I also know that the market is oversold and could bounce. Stick to your stop loss!

Sell short: $74.00 to $75.00
Stop Cover:$77.50
TARGET: $72.6375 to $71.75
Time Frame: Today
Type of Trade: Daytrade

BONUS (Short) PLAY # 3: Commerce One, Inc. (NasdaqNM: CMRC)

Commerce One, Inc. is a provider of business-to-business electronic commerce solutions that link buyers and suppliers of indirect goods and services into trading communities over the Internet. The Company's solutions enable the development of a global web of marketplaces that are able to operate among similar systems and trading communities. The Company has developed the Commerce Chain Solution to automate the procurement cycle between multiple buyers and suppliers. The Commerce Chain Solution is comprised of the BuySite enterprise procurement applications, Marketsite Platform, and Marketsite Commerce Services. The Company's customers include large enterprises in the public sector, as well as the utilities, finance, telecommunications, information services, travel and transportation industries

Stock Fans, ditto on above. Daytrading the shorts! Hoping for an uptick to fill the short. Commerce One has an On Balance rating of -100, the lowest. It has no earnings, its losses from operations are increasing, the sector is ice cold, has the lowest accumulation rating and volume is increasing and I really don't believe that it will be one of the first or second to bounce. Shorts have more risk and I will set my stop at 3% above my entry.

Sell short: $64.50 to $66.00
Cover: $67.73
TARGET: $62.89 to $60.00
Time Frame: Today
Type of Trade: Daytrade


PHCM- its oversold at currrent levels
RBAK- it oversold.
BRCD- a steal 4 more down today
APPL- Earnings come on Wednesday
CSCO - It should hold 55.00 easy
DELL- It sees 50.00 we have bottomed.
MSFT- 74.00 is way to low.
ORCL- it looks soldid today to close over 70.00
QCOM- It should hold 105 easy
KEYN- it's a steal at 35.00
INTC- 115. 00 is to low
YHOO- It better hold 110.00 today its 52 week low
JDSU- Big support uat 74.00 I hold

Have a great day!

More to come.....

Stock Jock!

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