The Play Of The Day
March 30, 2000
08:27 AM EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:
"The Sliding Continues Until They Dress Up for a YAHOO of a Week!"
Stock Fans, well we saved about 400 points by selling out our Longs last Friday, March 24, 2000. We then we were laughed at for the call by many - until Tuesday of this week when we saw "Dear Abbey" cut her model portfolio at Goldman Sachs back by 5%. The NASDAQ tried to stabilize itself all day Tuesday, but to no avail as no buying lead to selling. We opened yesterday up some as a few daytraders saw bargains. We were still closer to our 7 day high of 5,022.23 than our 7 day low of 4,553. Into yesterday's close we may have seen short selling as Key NASDAQ Index Stocks dropped abruptly into the close on less volume after they had come back impressively off the 4,650 area to go through 4,700 and back to 4,713. Daytraders left the party 15 minutes or so ahead of the close after battling all day to bring the NASDAQ back it all fell apart in a big way the final 15 minutes saw nothing but selling as we closed at a day low of 4,649.
Today, The over seas market has been hammered off yesterday's "Tech Reck" as Europe's Markets are down currently some 2.9% on average. With Asian Markets already done for the day and closing well into the red. That action may be off yesterday's NASDAQ sell off.
So, the question everyone asks today- Just where do investors come back into the market and buy? The truth is many aren't out of the NASDAQ Market yet! The volume yesterday still off on several issue was higher but still nothing like what should flow out of the Tech Stocks today. I will be looking for a sell off right off today's open. Then about 4,553 or so down from yesterday's close of 4,649 by just under 100 points at (minus) -96 points. I will then access the volume and look for such KEY STOCKS as YHOO to bounce off 169.00 area. This is where we may still see buyers come in and try and bring this market back to over 4,600. I however don't see much stopping us from losing those gains and then heavy selling as we drift lower into afternoon hours and the market falls back to just short of where we have a triple bottom with closes on back to back days of 4,555 (3/16/2000, 3/17/2000.) and also a top reached at that level on (3/14/2000) After heavy selling I like the NASDAQ to find 4,500 less the 50 off that crucial area we must hold to avoid a move to 4,291 and within shouting distance of 4,000.
Therefore Stock Fans, here is how I will play it I will hold my LONGS and buy up April Option Puts to hedge my bets for the drop. I will look to go Long and strong as the NASDAQ approaches 4500 today. I will set limit buys larger then my normal buying tendencies at NASDAQ 4,515 today down about 129.00- 134.00 from today's open.
I believe that we fall almost 150 points today before the true buying comes in. The NASDAQ was trading in a range of over 200 points not uncommon for the year 2,000 and the VOLUME was at 30 day averages or over. With so many investors feeling they can ride the storm out not selling yesterday, they will be forced out today as they panic and see that NASDAQ 4,000 is indeed closer than NASDAQ 5,000. It's there they should hold or buy in as that window dressing comes that we have been waiting for and the NASDAQ finishes in a flurry back up near yesterday's high at 4,700 plus. The biggest thing that leads me to this conclusion is the April 2000 Put Options sold off these stocks on their lows of March 21, 2000, These lows were where Market Technicians came in and Shorted The NASDAQ heavily. It was that action that sent the NASDAQ up over 500 points in less then 3 days on dangerously low VOLUME I look for them to cover short of these lows and that brings in buyers as we roll into the close today.
Selling LONG plays off today's open might not be a bad idea if you can get out ahead of the big drop. The NASDAQ will open lower today probably down 80 before we settle in. Again I like a bounce to come at 4560 or so a good area to bail (SELL OUT) and either go short if one can or raise cash and wait for my estimated buy area of 4,517 area. Yes, It looks very possible that one could hold through the NASDAQ move to the downside off today's open. It is however very risky as its no guarantee we come back today. However the bright side is this. If I were a fund manager I would have my limit buys ready to go as the Market technicians cover those short bets today. Ask yourselves all one question before you click that mouse today and bail on open. The Window Dressing many looked for on Monday, except perhaps Abbey and myself and a select other few seems almost a certainty to come today after the selling ceases. Think of it like this. If you ran a Fund yourself and the NASDAQ had dropped over 600 points in less then 5 days of trading, would you go in full boar and BUY as much as you could to dress your portfolio up real nice 1 day before the quarter ends so you could sit back on Friday and relax or even go home early and prepare for a nice easy weekend with few worries as you sit back in your easy chair knowing fulkl well everyone will be YAHOOOING!!! as next week begins (YHOO EARNINGS WED. APRIL 5, 2000) watch the University of Wisconsin Badgers continue their Mericale Run in this years NCAA Basketball Championship? I know I would, and what such a great thing is I can as this sell off shouldn't effect me at all being SHORT and sweet from NASDAQ 5022.23- 4,659.58 yesterdays bounce off lows where I covered my shorts turning a loss of 363.23 into an impressive 363.23 gain. The truth is I can hold now long and go in even more on the bottom. If you followed me at NASDAQ 5,022 shorting and yesterday when I covered and bought back in you should be able to as well!Today's Play's of
The Day are: ORCL, CSCO, DELL
Stock Fans, I am going save you all alot of reading today, as you all should of already read my MARKET OUTLOOK and predictions for today. (If you haven't yet you may want to) With that said here are my limit buy areas to get back in KEY TECH STOCKS today Long and Strong ahead of what I see as big Market Technician Short covering near the bottom as momentum switches to the upside in a hurry!
NO PLAY FRIDAY, MARCH 31, 2000! ON WISCONSIN!
KEY INDICATORS: ORCL
Buy Area: $76.9850-$78.00 ( I want to just get in as I see it holding 74 and coming
Sell Stop: $74.25 back over $80.00 as buyers come in today.)
Time Frame: 2-5 days
"RUN THE OPTIONS!" ORCL
ORCL MAY 85 CALLS
KEY INDICATORS: CSCO
Buy Area: $71.25-$68.1250
Sell Stop: $64.00
Time Frame: 5-7 days
RUN THE OPTIONS: CSCO
CSCO MAY 80 CALLS
KEY INDICATORS: DELL
Time Frame: 2-5 days
"RUN THE OPTIONS!": DELL
DELL MAY 50 CALLS
BONUS PLAY #1: Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE: LMT)
Lockheed Martin Corp. researches, designs, develops, manufactures and integrates advanced technology systems, products and services. Major products of the Space & Strategic Missiles Sector include the Titan launch vehicles, the Trident II submarine launched fleet ballistic missile, the MILSTAR communications satellite and the Atlas expendable launch vehicle. The Electronics Sector designs, develops, engineers and produces high performance electronic systems, as well as manufactures and installs bar code readers and sorters for postal services. Activities in the Information & Services Sector include upgrading the U.S. National Air Traffic Control System through replacement of systems at 20 Federal Aviation Administration Air Route Traffic Control Centers.
Stock Fans, Lockheed Martin is not the prettiest chart to look at. With the Naz stocks losing interest it is time to search for " value" plays. Well here is one. LMT's volume bars have been increasing and the MACD bars are rising. On Balance Volume says that it is under accumulation. Research gives it an "A" rating for accumulation. LMT is breaking out of its current base and I am looking to take a scalp out of the middle!
KEY INDICATORS: LMT
Buy: $18.75 to $19.25
TARGET: $21.18 to $22.14
Time Frame: 2 to 4 days
Type of Trade: Swing Play
BONUS (Short) PLAY #2: Voicestream Wireless Corp (NASDAQNM: VSTR)
VoiceStream Wireless Corp., through its subsidiaries, provides personal communications services (PCS) under the VoiceStream brand name in 11 urban markets, including Denver, Seattle/Tacoma, Phoenix/Tucson, Portland, Salt Lake City, Des Moines, Oklahoma City, Honolulu, El Paso, Albuquerque and Boise, and is currently constructing systems in San Antonio and Austin. The Company holds 107 broadband PCS licenses covering approximately 62.6 million persons. VoiceStream Wireless served 322,400 PCS subscribers at December 31, 1998, representing an increase of 151% from December 31, 1997. VoiceStream Wireless' services and include rate plans, prepaid services, wireless e-Mail, wireless data, and text messaging. In addition to offering home coverage in the aforementioned markets, the Company provides national and global roaming.
Stock Fans, VoiceStream closing price crossed below its 50 day moving average. It is the number 1 shorted Nasdaq stock! It has a accumulation rating of "D". On Balance Volume is -19. All of the indicators say that thew big money is abandoning this darling quickly!
KEY INDICATORS: VSTR
Sell short: $133.50 to $135.00
TARGET: $126.83 to $115.00
Time Frame: 2 to 5 days
Type of Trade: Short Play
STOCK TO WATCH TILL APRIL 17, 2000!
WEBT- We will watch this one for the next 3 weeks (13 trading days) as it reports earnings on April 17, 2000. No chance of this company running out of cash! They Make money! We will try and steal this one around $61.25-$59.1250. It should hold support at that level today. We really like this one into earnings up coming!
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
YHOO- Earnings coming April 5, 2000 at 166.00 this one you gotta buy. if in already like me on this one as I chased it yesterday. Sorry made a mistake. I hold and buy more ahead of "Dress Up" today!
AOL- It is a steal at $63.00 it should hold $60.00 it loses $60 its headed for $55.00
UBID- I will get in at $27.50-$28.00 for ALTA coming
CMGI - Down 10 this one is a buy over $100.00 on ALTA
DCLK -as it loses 90's they bail 88.00 its a steal!
GWRX- It should hold $31.00-$32.00
Have a great Weekend!
More to come....
and BigPlayStocks.com Team of Pro Traders!