The Play Of The Day
December 10, 1999
Good Morning Stock Fans!
Today's Play of the Day is CONCENTRIC NETWORKS (NASDAQ:CNCX)
Stock Fans! Something struck me as odd yesterday as I watched one of my favorite stocks drop over 1.00 to close at $24.1250 on volume of near 1.3 million. CNCX hit its high of the day right after the open as it almost found $27.00 stopping short of it at $26.93750. CNCX then dropped as the entire NASDAQ lost its all time high of 3,649.55 falling more then 60 pts to stop at 3,514.98. CNCX behaved as it should during this drop falling all the way to $24.00 even. The stock then as the NASDAQ came back so did it, again as buyers looked to come in taking it as high as $25.68750 as the NASDAQ came back again so did CNCX.
However the similarities to the NASDAQ coming back and again posting another all time high after being down as much as it was stop there when we compare CNCX to the NASDAQ. CNCX near the close on LESS VOLUME. as it dropped back quite swifty to $24.00 where once again it found support. What struck me as odd is this.
Are we lead to believe CNCX trades at $24.00 when NASDAQ was down over 60.00 pts, and then as NASDAQ closes positive by more then 8 points a new all-time high that CNCX is trading again at $24.00 even? Not likely. Almost every other stock on the NASDAQ rose and fell as the NASDAQ market did to an extent CNCX didn't trade that way at all.
In looking at the above data I too it one step father and consulted the 200 day moving average on CNCX. Low and behold it is indeed $24.00. Then to look for even more evidence, I looked at CNCX trading graph and saw that the stock has a triangle on the graph above $24.00 and a triangle on the graph below $24.00. This formation usually points out that the second drop to is solid support hence CNCX at $24.1250 where it closed yesterday.
In an effort to back up the logic that looks to be present in making the CNCX call today I looked one last place OPTIONS. CNCX has indeed had some action of late on the Dec $30.00 Option Calls. Those options expire in less then 10 days and still there were buyers on the options more then $5.00 "out of the money"
In short CNCX presents what looks to be an excellent buying opportunity with low risk. The stock has bounced off solid support now in both types of markets up and down. The volume at the end of the day being less and not having all kinds of sellers bail on the swift drop may indeed show Market Makers are busy gathering up the stock for a 7 point run. I really like $31.1250 to be hit on CNCX sometime ahead of next Thursday, December 16, 1999.
This play shows LOW RISK if a stop loss is placed just under 24.00, and it shows potentially HIGH REWARD if CNCX is to make its way back to $31.1250 over the next 5 trading sessions.
KEY INDICATORS (NASDAQ:CNCX)
Buy Area: $24.00-$24.50
Time Frame: 2 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
RUN THE OPTIONS
The CNCX Call Options that look to be the best to play are the
Dec. 1999 30.00 Option Calls
(Symbol:QXFLF) LAST ASK $0.3750 each
30 options calls at $0.3750 should be less then 1,000.00 to own today. If CNCX sees $30.00
plus ahead of Dec 17, 1999 then those options should be worth about $2.75. 2.75- $0.3750 = 2.43750x 3,000 = 7,312.50 or 6,312.50 profit (600%) increase.
LONG TERM PLAY TODAY!
ONE OF THE STOCK JOCK's! FAVORITE STOCKS FINALLY GETS ITS DUE TO BE SEEN AS A POWERFUL e-COMMERCE B2B STOCK! WEBTRENDS (NASDAQ:WEBT) EXPLODES LATE IN THE DAY to RISE MORE THEN $20.00 TO HIT $100.00!
Stock Fans! If you have been here since Feb 1999. You know then that one of the most successful calls I have ever made, one that I have an undefeated record calling right now for big gains 8 straight times EXPLODED late in the day on HUGE NEWS. WEBTRENDS (NASDAQ:WEBT). If you are a regular trader in our LIVE TRADING ROOM here at BPS.com then you will know that I pointed this stock out back on Dec 3 1999 when it reported news that it was being sued by what some would call a competitor Webside Story. I saw Webside Story as more of a pain as it isn't even a public company. On this bogus news (NASDAQ:WEBT) got hit pretty hard and fell more then 3.50 to close just over support at $55.6250. I made the call right there to get back in this one again and wait for what I thought should be the 80's a place that a CNBC profile way back in March of 1999 took shares of (NASDAQ:WEBT) .
Stock Fans! Yesterday this company reported to the world what I had seen on their website over 3 months ago. It unbelievable new products that are for use with e-COMMERCE Business 2 Business (B2B). These new products with security features as well as Y2,000 ready and even having LINUX base technology support are HOT. I have been saying that this stock deserves its due and I said it would be a $100.00 stock in 1999. Well, it was getting close to the end of the line on my prediction but MY "Gem" WEBTRENDS (NASDAQ:WEBT). We use their Web tracking and e-COMMERCE products on this very site. Their products customer service and ability to service as a smaller yet caring web company has made it the choice of Online Giants such as (NYSE:AOL) and (NASDAQ:AMZN).
This company should now find its way back on CNBC very soon. I am going to say this again this company is MAKING MONEY big money in fact the blew away earnings last Quarter in mid November when I said I loved this company again with a surprise to the upside with their numbers that made First Call analyst estimates look pretty silly as (NASDAQ:WEBT) made 10 cents a share instead of 4.5 cents.
Stock Fans! This company now looks to do what I predicted it would do all along break 100.00 and split. This is a long term holding of mine. The uniqueness of this stock and the area of their business has kept my attention now for almost a year. This stock mark my words should now be seen as a High Flying POWER HOUSE in e-Commerce B2B. An industry that we have seen take such stocks as (NASDAQ:ARBA) and (NASDAQ:CMRC) just to name 2 to unbelievably high levels. All one has to do is look at Augusts IPO (NASDAQ:ICGE) an Internet Venture Capital company that owns several e-Commerce B2B companies as that stock has boggled the mind going public under 30 and now looking to break 300.00 plus less then 6 months later. This is how powerful e-Commerce B2B has become in today's market place!
I am now looking for (NASDAQ:WEBT) to rocket from here it is an excellent buy anywhere under $100.00 a share. This company will be reporting 4Q earnings coming in the early January 2000. They are estimated by those low balling First Call analyst to be 34 cents a share. Yes, 34 cents a share. Stock Fans its time for everyone finally to stand up and take notice as this stock should be worth $200.00 sooner then later. It is that good!
BE SURE TO CHECK OUT! BIGPLAYSTOCKS.com WEBTRENDS PAGE GO HERE:
KEY INDICATORS: (NASDAQ:WEBT)
Buy Area: On open today with 30% position. If it drops I like $89.93750-$95.50 as an area to add more. This one is a keeper PERIOD!
TARGET: 6 months $200.00 plus and a split!
TIME FRAME: 6 months. Long Term Hold
BONUS PLAY #1 Pervasive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:PVSW)
Pervasive Software is a provider of application development and deployment software that simplifies the development, deployment and maintenance of Web-based and client/server applications. One year sales growth, 61.9%. Pervasive has available for download Tango 2000 LINUX Application Server PR1 and Pervasive SQL 2000 Server for LINUX. Stock fans this Company sold off a while back on what the company has said was an over reaction. This Company MAKES MONEY and has LINUX products! We have seen the explosive growth of the LINUX stocks and some stocks people think might be LINUX stocks. Here is the real deal..yet to be discovered!
AUSTIN, TEXAS--November 23, 1999--Pervasive Software Inc. (Nasdaq:PVSW), a leading provider of software that delivers the freedom to create applications for everyone, everywhere, today announced shipment of TangoTM 2000 Application Server and Pervasive.SQLTM 2000 Server software for the SolarisTM Operating Environment from Sun Microsystems, Inc.
Today's announcement expands Pervasive's platform offerings for its Tango 2000 and Pervasive.SQL 2000 product families across many of today's leading versions of Unix, including Red Hat Linux, Caldera OpenLinux, SuSE Linux and now Sun's Solaris Operating Environment. The platform expansion adds to Pervasive's existing support for Windows NT, Windows 95/98, Windows CE, Novell NetWare, and Mac OS, as well as such leading real-time operating systems as Wind River Vx Works and QNX Neutrino. Web, Java and database software developers can now deploy their Tango 2000 and Pervasive.SQL 2000 based applications on Solaris 7, Sun's true 64-bit operating environment, as well as on the 32-bit Solaris 2.6 Operating Environment.
KEY INDICATORS (NASDAQ:PVSW)
Buy Area: $12.50 to $12.9063
TARGET: $14.19 to $14.85
Time Frame: 1 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade or Day if Discovered!
BONUS PLAY #2 P-COM Incorporated (NASDAQ:PCMS)
P-COM (PCMS) develops, manufactures and markets millimeter wave radio systems fo the wireless telecommunications market. Looking at the stock we see that it closed over it average 10 day price on more volume yesterday a good sign.
In addition to the nice run in the last two days, this stock closing at $7.93750 broke resistance set on Nov. 11, 1999 of $7.3750. It looks as if $8.00 is the next resistance level set back on Sep 30, 1999. The increase yesterday came on 5 million shares trading. The average 30 day volume is (400%) less then that just over 1 million shares If this stock trades above $8.00 tomorrow, then the next resistance is the 52 week high of $10.00 set all the way back in January 1999.
NEWS ON WIRELESS GROWTH
We heard on CNBC yesterday morning that Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERICY) President Kurt Hellstrom project 1 Billion wireless in 2 years, (currently at 400m if I recall right). And the bet is wireless users want internet. That's where (NASDAQ:PCMS comes in, they are experts in the wireless broadband technology.
RECENT HEADLINES: (NASDAQ:PCMS)
Wed Dec 1 PCMS P-Com Announces Release Of M400 Broadband Spread Spectrum Wireless Radio - Business Wire
Given PCMS recent run from $6.00 to $8.00 in last two days on the huge increase in volume with the next resistance at its 52 week high of 10.00. We think stock is ready to make that move to the upside that should break this one out of the single digits for good!
KEY INDICATORS: (NASDAQ:PCMS)
Buy Area: $7.43750 to $8.00
Time Frame: It could happen today.
STOCKS TO WATCH TODAY:
ENMD $31.75 Indicators point to higher prices
MADGF $4.75 This one looks very good to increase from here
XIRC $53.00 Looks great technically can move to $70.00 + (9 days)
CICI $3.375 undervalued inexpensive stock that could run today.
EGHT $5.75 Stock starting to heat up. Watching it close.
SNIC $4.00 This one see a 50% to 100% increase perhaps by the end of the year.
7.TERA $5.31 Low priced stock again looking to move
8.ALMI $6.75 Undervalued looks good from here
STOCKS THAT HAD BIG VOLUME YESTERDAY THAT MAY MOVE HIGHER TODAY.
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
BPS.com TOP 25 e-Commerce Christmas Stocks!
AOL - AOL looking for $90.00
MACR- looks good at $69.93750 waiting for pull back.
SCOC- moved nice on close LINUX PLAY.
Have a great day!
More to come....