The Play Of The Day
11-22-99 07:19 EST.
Good Morning Stock Fans!
MARKET MOOD -Week of Nov 22-Nov 26 (NYSE, NASDAQ closed on 11-26-99 Turkey Day, 11-27-99 open till 2:00 PM EST) The NASDAQ continued last week to surge to all time highs getting very close 3,500. The major factor of late has been "popularity" or in this market it is known as VOLUME. The volume of late on the NASDAQ Market has been literally mind boggling!What I am looking for now is the volume to stay very high bit now like a year ago the volume should be allocated to the e-Commerce Christmas Stocks. Many of them remain very inexpensive unlike many of the other NASDAQ stocks that are at all time highs and beyond.
The NASDAQ Stocks that look to lead the way this week are:
AOL, YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, ETYS (incidentally all 5 are below all time highs as of today)
If we are to see similar moves we saw last year on the 5 preceding stocks then it will take volume to do it. Below is the average daily volume each one traded this week last year. (ETYS- was not public then)
Average VOLUMES for these stocks November 23- November 30, 1998 was:
Symbol Low/Bid High/Ask Avg daily. VOLUME Price Change
AOL - $86.88- $96.13 33.6 Million $9.25
YHOO- $191.50 -$227.76 14.8 Million $36.26
AMZN- $184.13- $230.62 43 Million $46.49
EBAY- $150.13- $193.50 10.3 Million $43.37
Don't forget to continue to follow BIGPLAYSTOCKS.com TOP 25 e-Commerce Christmas Stocks. We will have the moves they all made updated shortly. This page has already been a great trading tool!
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Today's Play of The Day is: America Online (NYSE:AOL)
Stock Fans! America Online less the 3 months ago was left for dead as it fell off a high it reached on April 19, 1999, of $175.50 to go as low as $80.50 on 09/21/99. Since that time it has been perhaps as impressive as it has ever been surging to more then double on its way to a 200 day high of $161.00 even reached on 11/12/99. That is a move of exactly 80.50 or double from 9/21/99 -- 11/12/99 or 44 market days an average increase of $2.25 a day during that time on average daily volume of 17.2 million.
At first glance it would seem rather interesting to see that (NYSE:AOL) has form its 200 day low to its 200 day high exactly doubled. However looking at (NYSE:AOL) in a similar period this year points out unbelievable similarities that shows to much evidence that (NYSE:AOL) is on pace to roll again.
Looking back at (NYSE:AOL) trading data from Feb 23 1999 - April 6, 1999. We see that it on Feb 23, 1999 (NYSE:AOL) one day ahead of its 8th split low/bid was $80.75 on April 6,1999 42 trading days later (NYSE:AOL) had reached an all time high/ask of $175.50 on daily average volume of 16.8 million shares.
Looking at (NYSE:AOL) trading data from September 21, 1999 the low/bid was $80.50 on November 12, 1999 44 trading days later (NYSE:AOL) had reached a high/ask of $161.00 on daily average volume of 17.2 million shares.
The similarities are to close to ignore. What this pattern shows is (NYSE:AOL) at $80.50 (NYSE:AOL) runs up in a hurry. With Yak fears looming over market I like (NYSE:AOL) to run like it did from Feb 23, 1999 to March 15, 1999. In that time period (NYSE:AOL) ran from $80.75 - $101.57 on daily average volume of 19.45 million shares. That time period covered 17 trading days. The period upcoming from today November 22, 1999 - Dec 15, 1999 will cover interestingly enough 17 market days.
What all this information points out is that (NYSE:AOL) should see volume once it splits for the 9th time in its history at the bell today it should see volume of 31 million to 34 million plus the next 2 trading days there after. This type of volume will be KEY in accessing (NYSE:AOL) predicted run starting today lasting till Friday Dec 14, 1999's open.
Once December 14, 1999 arrives I look for (NYSE:AOL) along with the rest of the market sell off on Y2K worries. The massive run up that many stocks have enjoyed should giveaway to profit taking that in a normal trading period on in market after a run up like we have seen would be seen as healthy profit taking. However it will not be viewed that way this time. (NYSE:AOL) along with the rest of the market having any significant pullback even if it looks healthy this close to the end of the millennium should give way to selling that would could certainly drop the DOW to 10,250 and the NASDAQ to 2803.00.
However before the market experiences those types of drops (NYSE:AOL) should enjoy a tremendous move on the fact that (NYSE:AOL) has defined e-Commerce Christmas. It also at an estimated split adjusted price of $78.50 -$82.50 will be seen as a bargain compared to the likes of many of the markets big name stocks that are just to high to own at present levels (Example QCOM). With (NYSE:AOL) price being cut in half look for the stock to run wild. It should see more then double its current average volume upcoming as it looks to run to $101.00 by December 14, 1999 open.
I will look to sell (NYSE:AOL) stock and options between $100.00-$102.00 price. If HISTORY has anything to do with it investors should BUY (NYSE:AOL) from $78.50 - $82.50 now and ask questions later as (NYSE:AOL) sets up to enjoy a run that should take it up more then $20.00 points over the next 17 trading days. One last thing to consider here is (NYSE:AOL) from November 23, 1998- Dec 14, 1998 again 17 trading days up $20.00 points.
(NYSE:AOL) News with Electronic Arts best known for its slogan "Its in the GAME!" (NASDAQ:ERTS) in a game pact with (NYSE:AOL). ERTS is a leading manufacture of popular video games. Looks like a great way to start (NYSE:AOL) e-Commerce Christmas run with video games! Sure to be on many youngsters Christmas lists!
"RUN THE OPTIONS!"
The best way to play the upcoming (NYSE:AOL) predicted move is to get the Call Options ahead of its 9th split scheduled for after the bell today. This is a great way to double your call contracts but pay less of a premium.
The best way to maximize your profit well covering a possible downside move to allocate 50% of the funds you are setting aside for your (NYSE:AOL) call options and put them into:
(NYSE:AOL) "Near Money" Call Options the Dec 1999 $90.00 Option Calls
The other 50% of those allocated funds for your buying options is best positioned a "Home Run" Call Option Play. The (NYSE:AOL) December 1999 $100.00 call options.
KEY INDICATORS: (NYSE:AOL) Stock
Buy Area: $160.1250- $161.00 (today ahead of the split)
Sell Stop: $155.00
TARGET: $99.3750-$102.50 (split adjusted)
Time Frame: 17 trading days (sell on open Dec 14,1999 by days end of history has anything to do with it (NYSE:AOL) could be hit pretty hard on selling off.)
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
KEY TO THE TRADE: VOLUME: 33 million daily average volume we look for on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
#1 BONUS PLAY: Rhythms NetConnections (NASDAQ:RTHM)
Stock Fans, Rhythms NetConnections (NASDAQ:RTHM) provides high speed data communications services. Volume tells no lies! Volume on this issue has steadily increased. All indicators are green and I am jumping in for the ride!
(NASDAQ:EFNT)is in the same sector as (NASDAQ:RTHM) is it has news with Comcast today. Watch (NASDAQ:EFNT) as well to move in this sector.
Buy Area: $43.75-$44.50
Sell Stop: $42.75
TARGET: $48.90 to $51.375
Time Frame: 2-8 trading days.
Type of Trade: Swing Trade. Ride the wave!
As a Daytrade: look for $1-$2.00 today!
#2 BONUS PLAY: Zany Brainy (NASDAQ:ZANY)
Zany Brainy (NASDAQ:ZANY) a leading specialty retailer of high quality toys, games, books and multimedia products on November 2, 1999 reported 3rd Quarter record numbers. It showed in increase in sales of 52.9 % on increased revenues. The stock had a nice move ahead of those number, then fell back to test the increased share price. It began to move again on increased volume this past Friday, November 19, 1999.
The stock should continue to see volume as it should gain share price form here on "Optimism over larger the expected e-Commerce Christmas Sales. We may just see (NASDAQ:ZANY) get to a new all time high of 16.00 plus over the next 5- 7 trading days!
Buy Area: $11.00-$11.93750
Sell Stop: $10.1250
Time Frame: 5 to 7 days
Type of Trade: Swing Trade
As a Daytrade: Look for $2.00 points today
#1 BONUS OPTIONS PLAY: (NASDAQ:ONSL) December 1999 $35.00 Call Options
The (NASDAQ:ONSL) December $35.00 Call Options saw over 1500 trading volume on Friday with (NASDAQ:ONSL) trading between $24.8750 to $26.25 on Friday down $2.25 on 55% LESS VOLUME then it had seen the previous day says that all that call volume more then $11.00 out of money sets up for (NASDAQ:ONSL) to make what could be if it is to be anything like a year ago big move.
TARGET: (NASDAQ:ONSL) Stock to $40.00 plus
#2 BONUS OPTIONS PLAY (NASDAQ:ETYS) December 1999 $80.00 Call Options
With what I believe is a big e-Commerce Christmas move upcoming (NASDAQ:ETYS) should enjoy a very nice move. It saw over 2 million shares on Friday way over its 30 day moving average. The stock has 2 major things going for it. They both have to do with name recognition the "E" stands for e-Commerce and the "TOYS" stands for perhaps the best known word to signify Christmas.
This stock has already seen a big pull back that took it off 80.00 down into $50.00's. That drop should have an excellent reason as to why now as (NASDAQ:EYTS) runs from here. One of our Professional Traders (SAGO) made a great call on (NASDAQ:ETYS) stock on Friday. Today we add the Call Options as (NASDAQ:ETYS) looks ready for a 17 day run that could take the stock to the $100.00 level
TARGET: (NASDAQ:EYTS) Stock $80.00 to $100.00
STOCKS ON OUR SCREENS TODAY:
e-Comm TOP 25 Christmas Stocks (http://www.bigplaystocks.com/ecom.html)
EXDS- Split announced after bell Friday
CYBS- CyberSource to be featured on CNBC's Power Lunch
ATHM- To issue tracking stock 3rd quarter next year
SPNW- commercials continue to be on CNBC and other networks
Have a great day!
More to come...
and BIGPLAYSTOCKS.com Team of Traders